R2 Assembly Production Rate & Time Per Vehicle + Annual Capacity (and vs. R1)

[BigSkies]

Apples to oranges. There aren’t equal number of parts.

Agreed. These numbers are only useful when compared against a comparable definition.

Tesla and Rivian may base their definition on an different beginning and end point for completely valid reasons.

What sub-assemblies are included in that start time? Does the finish time mean the time it goes out the factory door, the time it's staged, the time it's charged, or the time it's loaded on a rail car?

I imagine this is a useful metric for internal purposes. Time is money, and time shaved off the production process makes a big difference to margins

But it doesn't mean these numbers are comparable across companies.

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[Oldsmobile_Mike]

This is interesting metrics for sure. But (not to throw another dog into the "Elon vs RJ" commentary), just because you say you "can", doesn't mean you "will".

 

[tbinmd]

2.5 hours is a number from the gigafactory in China. Tesla has said it takes about 3 hours to paint a vehicle. Most cars take 12-18 hours for any manufacture to build from nothing to a rolling car.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

2.5 hours is a number from the gigafactory in China. Tesla has said it takes about 3 hours to paint a vehicle. Most cars take 12-18 hours for any manufacture to build from nothing to a rolling car.

Yup. No way anyone can produce a full car every 2.5 from bare sheet metal to finish. Can't even prep, paint and polish in that time. I'd like to hear less from the Tesla fanboys (get a life?).

 

[VSG]

No expert but when Tesla can fabricate a model Y in 2.5 hours start to finish seems we have a long away to go with production line efficiency for the R2 to be profitable. This would be data from Teslas most efficient manufacturing line. Their goal is a vehicle coming off the line every 30-40 seconds. What am I missing

By this reasoning, there is no other vehicle in the world that can possibly be profitable. Because that conclusion is clearly wrong, your premise that the speed of assembly is the thing that drives profitability is also clearly wrong. And the numbers don't even measure the same things, so not sure why you're bringing up Tesla except to troll.

If you've followed the progress Rivian has made over the past three years, I don't think there's any question that the R2 will be made at a gross profit (at least) from the beginning.

 

[COdogman]

Maybe the new "stripper" Model Ys that were released after the federal tax credit ended, but not the other models. Displays up front and back, heated and cooled seats up front, heated in the rear, heated steering wheel, power liftgate in the rear, panoramic roof, matrix LED headlights, large frunk, wireless charging, plenty of storage, adjustable angle rear seats, FSD, all wheel drive, performance models, rear or AWD, double pane glass all around, and a wealth of software features.

Do tell me what is so "basic" compared to an R2? The fact that the tailgate glass doesn't roll down or the rear quarter windows don't pop out?

1. The amorphous computer mouse styling.

2. Tesla Model Y Owners Find Cooling System Cobbled Together With Home Depot-Grade Fake Wood

 

[sunydrm]

Apples to oranges. There aren’t equal number of parts.

And they should have a similar number of parts. Parts affect cost

Model Y is based on an 8 year old model 3 design. They should have figured out how to reduce more parts since then

new lucid midsize claims to have significantly less parts than a model Y

 

[COdogman]

And they should have a similar number of parts. Parts affect cost

Model Y is based on an 8 year old model 3 design. They should have figured out how to reduce more parts since then

new lucid midsize claims to have significantly less parts than a model Y

 

[140 degrees]

No expert but when Tesla can fabricate a model Y in 2.5 hours start to finish seems we have a long away to go with production line efficiency for the R2 to be profitable. This would be data from Teslas most efficient manufacturing line. Their goal is a vehicle coming off the line every 30-40 seconds. What am I missing

When designing any production line, there is a tradeoff between fixed and variable costs. With a good design and heavy capital investment you can reduce the cycle time by a lot. This doesn't mean it is a always a good decision. Factories are most efficient when run close to full capacity. Tesla designed and built their Cybertruck manufacturing for a capacity of 200K vehicles. Estimates are that they'll sell approximately 20K in 2025. They heavily over-invested, and so the fixed costs per vehicle will be very large. If Cybertruck were a stand-alone company, they would be bankrupt.

Based on their Q3 2025 earnings call, Tesla expects to build initial manufacturing capacity in Austin for 2 million Robotaxis per year. This is supposed to result in a 10 second cycle time. This would be an astounding level of capital investment for an unproven product. What if they only sell 100K/yr? More likely it is hyperbole. They can't be that reckless, can they?

The first iteration of the R2 manufacturing line is supposed to have a capacity of approximately 150K. We don't yet know the capacity of the second manufacturing line in Georgia or the third line in Europe. The cycle time will improve for future production lines as they gain experience in Normal.

I like Rivian's measured approach. They are building to a reasonable sales ramp. They can raise their capital spending as (hopefully) their sales ramp up. On the other hand, Tesla is going to have trouble improving their factory utilization if their sales continue to decline.

 

[electruck]

Someone said "stripper" and I got excited, boy was this thread a let down!

 

[sunydrm]

Based on their Q3 2025 earnings call, Tesla expects to build initial manufacturing capacity in Austin for 2 million Robotaxis per year. This is supposed to result in a 10 second cycle time. This would be an astounding level of capital investment for an unproven product. What if they only sell 100K/yr? More likely it is hyperbole. They can't be that reckless, can they?

The reason the cycle time is low with cybercab is the car has low part count, uses the unboxed process and is almost fully automated

Tesla never runs factories at full capacity. Even for model Y it's only 4 days per week

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Maybe the new "stripper" Model Ys that were released after the federal tax credit ended, but not the other models. Displays up front and back, heated and cooled seats up front, heated in the rear, heated steering wheel, power liftgate in the rear, panoramic roof, matrix LED headlights, large frunk, wireless charging, plenty of storage, adjustable angle rear seats, FSD, all wheel drive, performance models, rear or AWD, double pane glass all around, and a wealth of software features.

Do tell me what is so "basic" compared to an R2? The fact that the tailgate glass doesn't roll down or the rear quarter windows don't pop out?

Drivers display screen.

 

[captainjp]

What if they only sell 100K/yr?

Even that number seems optimistic

 

[COdogman]

The reason the cycle time is low with cybercab is the car has low part count, uses the unboxed process and is almost fully automated

Tesla never runs factories at full capacity. Even for model Y it's only 4 days per week

Ok sunydrm
aka pamalabama
aka jabanks32


https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...el-y-l-cheap-model-y-chevy-bolt.49993/page-10

 

[140 degrees]

Tesla never runs factories at full capacity. Even for model Y it's only 4 days per week

Tesla production is shrinking because sales are shrinking. Factory utilization is going
down, and so is Gross Margin. They are lowering vehicle prices to try and keep sales up and
to prevent factory utilization from getting worse. That hurts their margins.

Running a factory at below optimal capacity is like flying an airline with empty seats.

Year __Total Production_Installed Capacity__Est. Utilization __GAAP Gross Margin
2025 ____(Est.)~1,700,000 __ ~2,350,000 ______ ~72% ______ ~17.8%
2024 __________1,773,443 __~2,350,000 ______ ~75% _______ 18.2%
2023__________1,845,985 __~2,350,000 ______ ~79% _______18.2%
(This chart is generated by Gemini, it is for entertainment purposes only.)

If Cybercab is a big hit, this trend could turn around. If the ramp is too slow, more
trouble is ahead.

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