2021 Q3 Rivian Shareholder Letter – December 16, 2021. 71K Preorders Received

[Eticket99]

If they just state the truth the investor community will be fine.

In the end if they build a truck such that they can't build enough because they're so highly sought after... They'll also be fine. In the short term maybe just don't have a clue?

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[ChrissyOne]

Nothing focuses your production and communication teams like loosing market cap in 10 billion dollars chunks. You want to see better communication and a decent production ramp drop the stock price below the IPO offering price

It’s a mistake to think that company leadership sits around and worries about how their market cap fluctuates. I don’t know how Rivian works, but I know how Amazon works, and that concern never enters any strategic conversation. They have plenty of cash to operate and deal with production issues for the time being.

And after the late-market panic, they’re sitting at 99.30. They’ve bounced off $100 a couple of times in the last month. This is not a huge deal. It IS a buying opportunity if you’re going long.

 

[Peter del Rio]

Unfortunately, reality is setting in and I so wanted an R1S.

The burn rate is high while production is low and they are trying to keep the barbarians at the gate with the announcement of a factory in Georgia. But what concerns me most is the founder & CEO owns less than 2% of the company, meaning Rivian won't have another chance at a big raise but rather will be a candidate for a takeover if all goes south.

The canary in the coal mine is what Ford does with its shares. Does it hold on for the long run hoping for Rivian's success or does it sell its stake seeing Rivian as a competitor with hopes of buying Rivian's tech pennies on the dollar?

Tech companies went through the same thing in 2000 when it became obvious most were selling vaporware.

I hope I am wrong because there is no better EV SUV built than the R1S.

 

[ChrissyOne]

I hope I am wrong because there is no better EV SUV built than the R1S.

You’re wrong, because you didn’t mention Amazon, and this is an Amazon story. They own 10x more than RJ does. And Bezos doesn’t fuck about.

But you gotta do your thing, man.

 

[Rob Stark]

But what concerns me most is the founder & CEO owns less than 2% of the company, meaning Rivian won't have another chance at a big raise but rather will be a candidate for a takeover if all goes south.

RJ has 9.5% of the voting power. Much the same way the Ford family controls Ford. With different class of shares.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...caringe-billionaire-amazon-big-winner-2021-11


I am sure RJ is highly incentivized with stock options.

 

[EVTrucking]

You’re wrong, because you didn’t mention Amazon, and this is an Amazon story. They own 10x more than RJ does. And Bezos doesn’t fuck about.

But you gotta do your thing, man.

So far Bezos influence on Rivian’s production seems to be invisible.

I don’t see Amazon as Rivian’s savior. It is a significant investor but it can only do so much. It can advise and throw money at it but that’s about it.

 

[RideAlong]

I'd be really curious as to how long it will take to deliver the first 10,000

ikr ! ?

 

[ChrissyOne]

It’s actually quite visible if you know what you’re looking for. You just need to think big.

 

[EVTrucking]

It’s actually quite visible if you know what you’re looking for. You just need to think big.

I am thinking big. I have worked for IBM and HP as well as smaller companies and experienced first hand what major investors can and cannot do.

Amazon would need a experienced automotive production team of a few thousand folks ready to step in and take over. That is not possible. Advice and money are the only things it can do.

 

[LaunchGreen]

So far Bezos influence on Rivian’s production seems to be invisible.

I don’t see Amazon as Rivian’s savior. It is a significant investor but it can only do so much. It can advise and throw money at it but that’s about it.

They own 22% which would normally mean full control in a public company but RJ has all of the class B shares. It's basically a partnership between the two.

 

[LaunchGreen]

Unfortunately, reality is setting in and I so wanted an R1S.

The burn rate is high while production is low and they are trying to keep the barbarians at the gate with the announcement of a factory in Georgia. But what concerns me most is the founder & CEO owns less than 2% of the company, meaning Rivian won't have another chance at a big raise but rather will be a candidate for a takeover if all goes south.

The canary in the coal mine is what Ford does with its shares. Does it hold on for the long run hoping for Rivian's success or does it sell its stake seeing Rivian as a competitor with hopes of buying Rivian's tech pennies on the dollar?

Tech companies went through the same thing in 2000 when it became obvious most were selling vaporware.

I hope I am wrong because there is no better EV SUV built than the R1S.

Did anyone - like any single person, analyst or not, not expect a "high burn rate" at this point. Their current cash runway is like 5 years.

RJ owns 2%, but all of the Class B shares. Amazon owns 22% and bought at the IPO.

But then again, you're the one that said there will be many opportunities to buy below the IPO price, so you're a bear and let's see. For completely selfish reasons, I hope you're right.

 

[EVTrucking]

They own 22% which would normally mean full control in a public company but RJ has all of the class B shares. It's basically a partnership between the two.

Finacial Control is not the short to mid term issue for production. The current team, which is still incomplete and clearly not up to speed is the sticking point.

 

[ChrissyOne]

You think this is about automotive production… ??‍

This is a foundational piece of their logistics strategy. They are building a global enterprise. They are not concerned about how soon you get your truck.

 

[Rob Stark]

Advice and money are the only things it can do.

Software.

 

[EVTrucking]

You think this is about automotive production… ??‍

This is a foundational piece of their logistics strategy. They are building a global enterprise. They are not concerned about how soon you get your truck.

Now that I agree with.

My point was that expectations of early deliveries does not line up with reality and in the short to mid term Amazon can not help to any significant amount.

In the long term (3-5 yrs)Amazon’s money and advice will help Rivian to succeed.

We need to be mindful to differentiate between pre order deliveries and the long term success of Rivian.

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