2021 Q3 Rivian Shareholder Letter – December 16, 2021. 71K Preorders Received

[Guy]

I wouldn't look too far into that statement. Every company on earth is "evaluating the pricing of their products" at all times, but right now especially. I would be surprised if they raise prices on existing orders, but we'll see.

I would expect in early 2022 they increase price for new orders, keeping existing price for the 70000 existing pre holders.

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[BrayBay]

I think its pretty exciting for Rivian that preorders went from ~48k to ~71k in about two and half months. Another way of looking at it is it took almost three years to get to 48k, and it jumped by 50% in the last two and half months with all the recent attention.

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next year as more people start driving their Rivian vehicles in real life.

 

[BradSomrak]

Reiterated timeline for all existing preorders are still expected sitting where they are today to be completed in 2023(71k) , but insinuated that pretty soon they will push to 2024.

There has been a lot of comment on this forum about Rivian being “conservative” in its projections, and that it would overperform with a quicker than expected production ramp/delivery schedule. Nothing RJ said today let me to believe that preorders are going to be filled in 2022. As you noted, I took his comments as once again reaffirming they will need all of 2023 to clear the preorders, with preorders today headed to ‘24.

 

[Redline]

how did you dial in?

https://rivian.com/investors/events

 

[Dbeglor]

I would expect in early 2022 they increase price for new orders, keeping existing price for the 70000 existing pre holders.

Yep, I hope you're right. That's partially why I put in a second order for protection.

 

[Dbeglor]

There has been a lot of comment on this forum about Rivian being “conservative” in its projections, and that it would overperform with a quicker than expected production ramp/delivery schedule. Nothing RJ said today let me to believe that preorders are going to be filled in 2022. As you noted, I took his comments as once again reaffirming they will need all of 2023 to clear the preorders, with preorders today headed to ‘24.

I don't think anybody seriously believed they would fulfill all preorders in 2022?? That would be quite a leap.

 

[Dbeglor]

I missed the demographics answer, did he say 90% are first time truck buyers? That would make sense, but wasn't sure if I heard it right.

 

[dixosw]

Negative gross profit? LOL. But it's still a profit, right?

 

[Craigins]

There has been a lot of comment on this forum about Rivian being “conservative” in its projections, and that it would overperform with a quicker than expected production ramp/delivery schedule. Nothing RJ said today let me to believe that preorders are going to be filled in 2022. As you noted, I took his comments as once again reaffirming they will need all of 2023 to clear the preorders, with preorders today headed to ‘24.

S-1 amendment 3 states end of 2023. Not 2022. They should be able to hit end of 2023 for the 55k preorders as of 11/3.

 

[TheManInTheSea]

I hit the nail on the head for reservations. Guessed 70-75k.

I expected more. Between this number and the hiccups in production already, I’m curious how negatively the market with react.

 

[Dbeglor]

S-1 amendment 3 states end of 2023. Not 2022. They should be able to hit end of 2023 for the 55k preorders as of 11/3.

He said orders through yesterday are still 2023, but new orders probably start to be 2024 pretty soon.

 

[Craigins]

He said orders through yesterday are still 2023, but new orders probably start to be 2024 pretty soon.

Nice. That's a decent data point for expected throughput.

If they are still aiming for the 65k capacity at the end of 2022, then expect a slow roll for the ramp up.

 

[BradSomrak]

S-1 amendment 3 states end of 2023. Not 2022. They should be able to hit end of 2023 for the 55k preorders as of 11/3.

I am very well aware. I have continually been in the camp that production will take all of 2023 to clear pre-orders (when they were 55k).

I’m merely saying if you look through the forum threads and posts, there are many people that believe Rivian is going to fill its preorders much faster than the S1 indicated. I believe RJ’s comments today are again trying to temper expectations.

They will need most if not all of 2023 to clear the preorders.

 

[virgnia_rivian]

I read the investor letter, but did not get a chance to listen to the call. A few things stand out:

1. Very few specifics about deliveries and production expectations over the next quarter. Since they missed their 2021 delivery goal, this would have given investors a sense of where they are going over the next quarter.
2. They still have very few service techs and service locations. They definitely aren’t ready for nationwide deliveries. I think we’ll see deliveries focus on areas they do have service techs. Ie, some people may jump ahead of early reservation holders
3. They tout the current factory’s capacity, but haven’t given guidance for 2022 goals. Ie what does their ramp up look like. Investors don’t like to keep guessing.
4. there have been forum posts about CS saying all current reservation holders will get an email before end of year with an expected delivery timeframe. Doe we still think this will happen?

Just some food for thought.

 

[Craigins]

I am very well aware. I have continually been in the camp that production will take all of 2023 to clear pre-orders (when they were 55k).

I’m merely saying if you look through the forum threads and posts, there are many people that believe Rivian is going to fill its preorders much faster than the S1 indicated. I believe RJ’s comments today are again trying to temper expectations.

They will need most if not all of 2023 to clear the preorders.

In theory, production ramp should be a close to a step function as they bring on the additional shifts to run 24/6. They are supposed to hit 65k annually by late 2023 (not 2022, I'm a few beers in). With the added info, expecting 70kish end of 2023 means 2022 might be a bit light.

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