What's the future of the Electric Truck/SUV market?

[Dbeglor]

Spend more now, so you could save more later? You're a car salesman dream. Might I offer you the undercoat protection package?

It's a joke, but seriously? Fuel savings, not getting your oil changed, it does add up (I've owned EV'S, hybrids and V8's alike), but asking somebody to see the payoff six or seven years later depending on their driving habits. Not to mention all the concessions made in between. Again you're assuming electricity prices exist in a vacuum along with credits. Do you know what you pay for kilowatt hour right now, do you think you're going to be paying that in five years? I would encourage you to read about the mark-up rate for electricity per kilowatt-hour on these third-party Chargers. One of the main reasons why third-party charging is just another racket, paying 200% (or more) per kilowatt-hour at a third-party chargers isn't something that's talked about the most first-time electric vehicle buyers.

I know it takes money to make money, but that's a hard sell for car buyers. Just imagine when the finance department sits you down and tries to show you a projected graph based on how much you drive and all these other factored in variables to justify why you're spending $20,000 more for your F-150. For some it does make sens with credits,100% at home charging, etc.

Also these credits? You think and you feel they should exist forever? More magic money out of thin air right, who pays those credits? Again that's not a good product strategy to rely on future credits, otherwise every new car would have a credit right?

Let me ask you why do you think credits exist in the first place, because they're trying to offset that out-of-pocket expense up front to get people to buy these cars. Secondly don't you think savvy companies like General Motors and Ford who lobbied for these credits aren't going to mark their product up accordingly knowing that that's how they're going to pitch a more expensive product to you? EV's were never any cheaper or more expensive then as they are now (Model S example). Or at least they shouldn't be, Ford. There shouldn't be any credits if the cost savings are there that you speak of, nor is the future of electric vehicles credit-based.

Again a great deal of EV cost savings are based on the premise the more you drive, the more you save, but at the same time you hear that most daily driving circumstances don't need more than a 200-mile range and the hypothetical cost savings shrink.

Wow, quite a rambling rant. Let's just focus on TX, given it's the most dominant market for trucks.

Electricity costs about $0.10/kwh here, which equates to about $0.04/mi at an efficiency of 2.5mi/kwh.

At $3.50/gal and 20mpg, an F150 costs about $0.18/mi, or $0.14/mi more. That's $2,100/yr for 15,000 miles. It's not hypothetical, it's black and white.

Even for the occasional time you need to use a public DCFC, that rate is still equivalent to about $0.14/mi.

Oil Changes x 4 equals $200/year. Brake replacement in five years is another $1,000. Those three things (fuel, oil, brakes) is $12,500 over five years, before accounting for any number of other mechanical service that will need to be done in the ICE version but not the EV version.

As the BBB is currently written, the Lightning will qualify for $12,500 in tax credits federally, and TX provides another $2,500, for a total of $15,000 off. This will be a point-of-sale credit in 2023, so you don't have to wait to file taxes, it's lopped off the top day 1.

So, a Lightning with an MSRP/Sale Price of $60k is actually $45k upfront, and $32,500 effective when comparing to the ICE version by a rational person.

There are hundreds of thousands of truck buyers every year that never tow or drive long distances regularly, and this is an easy sale. It will be done by the friend that already bought one, not the salesman in the dealership, because that salesman will be incentivized to sell the opposite to maintain service revenue for the dealership.

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[ja_kub_sz]

Ford XLT Super Crew 40k
Ford XLT Lightning XLT 51.5k ($7,500 credit doesn't = $7,500 off MSRP)

Financing difference on MSRP of 13k over 60 months is $225/month (14k).

Range 550 miles vs 230 miles (115-130kwh)
12.5 cents kWh ($14 a fill at home)
Real range (80% advertised)
Average miles driven 13k/yr
Cost 1k per year
Average gasoline per gallon $3.75 ($97.5 a tank)
Cost $2,300 per year
30k Mile big dealer recommended maintenance ( trans flush etc) and 5 yearly oil changes (3k and $750)

5 year fuel savings. $6,500
5 maintenance savings 4K
Home charger install Plus cost -1k
Credit $1,500

You save $12,000 but you spent $15,000 more.

These are National averages that I'm using and I'm quoting you Ford dealer maintenance rates.

I'm just using averages, but you're just using credits, and that's assuming 100% home charging. I'll give you that.

These "credits" aren't free and won't exist forever.

 

[SlaterGS]

...or was it all just to sell a quad for kids?

 

[Dbeglor]

Ford XLT Super Crew 40k
Ford XLT Lightning XLT 51.5k ($7,500 credit doesn't = $7,500 off MSRP)

Financing difference on MSRP of 13k over 60 months is $225/month (14k).

Range 550 miles vs 230 miles (115-130kwh)
12.5 cents kWh ($14 a fill at home)
Real range (80% advertised)
Average miles driven 13k/yr
Cost 1k per year
Average gasoline per gallon $3.75 ($97.5 a tank)
Cost $2,300 per year
30k Mile big dealer recommended maintenance ( trans flush etc) and 5 yearly oil changes (3k and $750)

5 year fuel savings. $6,500
5 maintenance savings 4K
Home charger install Plus cost -1k
Credit $1,500

You save $12,000 but you spent $15,000 more.

These are National averages that I'm using and I'm quoting you Ford dealer maintenance rates.

I'm just using averages, but you're just using credits, and that's assuming 100% home charging. I'll give you that.

These "credits" aren't free and won't exist forever.

Look, you can ignore the facts I presented and just make up your own, but it doesn't change anything.

The range of an ICE vehicle vs. EV is irrelevant. The F150 can have a 5k mi range, who cares.

The tax credit absolutely does reduce the effective cost of the vehicle even as it stands today. The TX state rebate is filing paperwork and you get a check within 30 days.

If you're talking about as a nation, then I certainly agree, they aren't free. I for one will be paying for it disproportionately without being able to benefit from it (and that's ok). But for an individual walking into a dealer, they are absolutely free (i.e. already paid for). They'll last as long as they need (already been a decade) until EV's are cheaper than ICE, which isn't far off. Regardless, they are here today and that is what we're talking about.

XLT Lightning extended range is about $60k. Similar spec XLT is $45k. With BBB, a Texas buyer can get the Lightning version for the same price as the ICE version after federal and state credits, and save over $10k over five years from gas, oil changes and brake service. They'll save even more once factoring in other service/repairs the ICE will need that EV won't. If the status quo credit stays, it will be $4,500 more upfront, but still the $10k in savings.

Of course, that's all hypothetical, because dealers won't let that happen and will add upcharges to the Lightning to dissuade buyers (will call it "market demand adjustment"; I've seen $20k premiums put on Mach E) or offer incentives on the ICE version. This will test Ford's commitment to electrification whether they intervene.

 

[TessP100D]

Look, you can ignore the facts I presented and just make up your own, but it doesn't change anything.

The range of an ICE vehicle vs. EV is irrelevant. The F150 can have a 5k mi range, who cares.

The tax credit absolutely does reduce the effective cost of the vehicle even as it stands today. The TX state rebate is filing paperwork and you get a check within 30 days.

If you're talking about as a nation, then I certainly agree, they aren't free. I for one will be paying for it disproportionately without being able to benefit from it (and that's ok). But for an individual walking into a dealer, they are absolutely free (i.e. already paid for). They'll last as long as they need (already been a decade) until EV's are cheaper than ICE, which isn't far off. Regardless, they are here today and that is what we're talking about.

XLT Lightning extended range is about $60k. Similar spec XLT is $45k. With BBB, a Texas buyer can get the Lightning version for the same price as the ICE version after federal and state credits, and save over $10k over five years from gas, oil changes and brake service. They'll save even more once factoring in other service/repairs the ICE will need that EV won't. If the status quo credit stays, it will be $4,500 more upfront, but still the $10k in savings.

Of course, that's all hypothetical, because dealers won't let that happen and will add upcharges to the Lightning to dissuade buyers (will call it "market demand adjustment"; I've seen $20k premiums put on Mach E) or offer incentives on the ICE version. This will test Ford's commitment to electrification whether they intervene.

Interesting Comments. Thank you. Except Range is very important. But I think you know that

 

[Dbeglor]

Interesting Comments. Thank you. Except Range is very important. But I think you know that

For EV to EV, sure. I'm saying the ICE F150 getting 550mi of range vs. the EV version is irrelevant. The entire argument excluded anyone towing, so it doesn't matter how far the gas pickup goes, and 300 mi EV range is plenty for the average truck buyer who only drives to work and to the soccer field on the weekend. Especially in TX where we don't have to contend with elevation or weather (for the most part....). I have an entire side of the family with Ford trucks, all but one haven't driven them beyond a 150mi radius from their homes. The other has a 350 to tow a fifth wheel and the Lightning will absolutely not interest him.

 

[TessP100D]

For EV to EV, sure. I'm saying the ICE F150 getting 550mi of range vs. the EV version is irrelevant. The entire argument excluded anyone towing, so it doesn't matter how far the gas pickup goes, and 300 mi EV range is plenty for the average truck buyer who only drives to work and to the soccer field on the weekend. Especially in TX where we don't have to contend with elevation or weather (for the most part....). I have an entire side of the family with Ford trucks, all but one haven't driven them beyond a 150mi radius from their homes. The other has a 350 to tow a fifth wheel and the Lightning will absolutely not interest him.

Good points. Around town with a 50 mile radius. Sure. 300 miles of range Is fine. If that fits your bill, perfect. Otherwise.… range is king. At least right now.

 

[Rob Stark]

Ford will sell Lightnings to people who already buy F-150s, which is a lot of people, but I don't see them expanding their market, it will just gradually replace their ICE truck sales.
Cybertruck (if it ever exists, which I suspect it won't) will appeal to Musk fans who don't know anything about Trucks. I think they'll sell like VHS copies of Ishtar.

Roughly a quarter of Lightning reservations holders are F Series owners.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/16/11-of-ford-f-150-lightning-pre-orders-are-from-tesla-owners/

Cybertrucks, like all Teslas, will be production constrained not demand constrained for at least a decade.

Ford has approved 3 Joint Venture GF with SK Innovation to ultimately produce 129 GWh per year.

Tesla initial Cybertruck capacity will be 300k/year. Ford will need at least all 129 GWh to produce 300k Lightnings per year. Then there is Mach-e,Transit and whatever else Ford decides to make electric.

 

[ChrissyOne]

Cybertrucks, like all Teslas, will be production constrained not demand constrained for at least a decade.

I think their biggest constraint will be how ridiculously stupid they are. But we don't really know, do we? It's been two years, and have they crossed the US on dirt roads? Have the driven the length of South America? Have they even been tested off road at all? No. When that happens, then we'll see how good they are.

 

[Rob Stark]

I think their biggest constraint will be how ridiculously stupid they are.

This is just a stupid assertion.

But we don't really know, do we? It's been two years, and have they crossed the US on dirt roads? Have the driven the length of South America? Have they even been tested off road at all? No. When that happens, then we'll see how good they are.

Of course Cybertrucks have been tested. As have Ford Lightnings.

Tesla has over 2M vehicles on the road while Ford has over 20M trucks on the road.

Neither need to advertise their testing procedures to reassure buyers.

Rivian, as a startup, does.

 

[ChrissyOne]

Neither need to advertise their testing procedures to reassure buyers.

Rivian, as a startup, does.

Only they are being advertised, and aping Rivian's branding like a champ -


No, the CT had not been demonstrated to be a capable off roader yet. It has shuttled fans up and down the street, relying on the same old "ooooo electric fast" that Tesla has built their brand on. But Every EV will be able to do 0-60 in 3 seconds, so that is going to become irrelevant. When I see a CT doing torque vectoring, then we'll talk. But Elon just announced it today (me too!!) so we'll see if they can do it.

 

[ChrissyOne]

This is a graph worth remembering. Tesla have done a wonderful job opening the EV market. But compared to other companies, they still have a tiny market share. Contrary to what Tesla fans think, most consumers actually do like well-built cars. That's why so many of them buy Toyotas and VWs. As EVs grow in the market, this will affect buying habits. Quality really DOES matter, despite what Cathie Wood seems to think. Ford certainly understands this, as does Rivian. To assume that Tesla will maintain their market share without improving their fit and finish is wishful thinking.

 

[sub]

This is a graph worth remembering. Tesla have done a wonderful job opening the EV market. But compared to other companies, they still have a tiny market share. Contrary to what Tesla fans think, most consumers actually do like well-built cars. That's why so many of them buy Toyotas and VWs. As EVs grow in the market, this will affect buying habits. Quality really DOES matter, despite what Cathie Wood seems to think. Ford certainly understands this, as does Rivian. To assume that Tesla will maintain their market share without improving their fit and finish is wishful thinking.

Do you have any charts that show growth in the last few years? Or the profit margin per unit sold?

I would rather own stock in a company with double digit growth and double digit profit margin, than a company with negative growth and/or negative profit margin.

Number of units sold is not the only consideration in the company's value.

 

[Dbeglor]

Good points. Around town with a 50 mile radius. Sure. 300 miles of range Is fine. If that fits your bill, perfect. Otherwise.… range is king. At least right now.

We don't really need to go down the rabbit hole, and I know you're just trolling around, so I'll pass.

This is a graph worth remembering. Tesla have done a wonderful job opening the EV market. But compared to other companies, they still have a tiny market share. Contrary to what Tesla fans think, most consumers actually do like well-built cars. That's why so many of them buy Toyotas and VWs. As EVs grow in the market, this will affect buying habits. Quality really DOES matter, despite what Cathie Wood seems to think. Ford certainly understands this, as does Rivian. To assume that Tesla will maintain their market share without improving their fit and finish is wishful thinking.

Sure, but to be fair, is Tesla fit and finish really that inferior to Ford, GM, Stellantis (asking for a friend)? I think part of it is that as they keep raising prices, they are compared to similarly priced brands (Audi/BMW/Mercedes), but they aren't a luxury brand or purport themselves to be. People are currently willing to pay Audi/BMW/Merc prices for a Ford like interior because of the rest of the experience.

Their margins allow them to lower prices back down to be on par with their true competition, which could just squeeze the life out of them if they also don't create efficiencies to drop prices as well.

 

[ChrissyOne]

Sure, but to be fair, is Tesla fit and finish really that inferior to Ford, GM, Stellantis (asking for a friend)?

Yes.

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