180 R1T produced / 156 R1T delivered as of Oct 31 -- per Updated Rivian S1 [11/1]

[Babbuino]

Very similar to MS numbers, so it's still within expectations.

2012: ~3100
June to Sept:~350
Oct-Dec: ~2750

2013: 22477
Q1: +4750
Q2: ~5150
Q3 ~5700
Q4: ~6892

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[EVTrucking]

Do you mind sharing when was the first filing at what was the number? I reserved in August and it looks like I will fall in 2023. I am trying to guess what part of 23. It looks like Lightning may get me first.

Getting a Lightning before a Rivian depends on when you reserved the Lightning. Only 15,000 Lightnings are predicted by Ford to be produced in 2022.

 

[DucRider]

Do you mind sharing when was the first filing at what was the number? I reserved in August and it looks like I will fall in 2023. I am trying to guess what part of 23. It looks like Lightning may get me first.

All orders prior to September 31st, 2021 are expected to be filled in 2022.
Unless you think Rivian is now engaging in securities fraud by lying on their S1 filings

 

[EVTrucking]

All orders prior to September 31st, 2021 are expected to be filled in 2022.
Unless you think Rivian is now engaging in securities fraud by lying on their S1 filings

Rivian is not lying it is simply their best estimate at the time of filing the S-1!

If they miss their estimated goal they will NOT be charged with securities fraud.

 

[Taycanfrank]

I can't stress enough that this is based on the total pre-orders. Only a small percentage of pre-orders will become sales.

Realistically only 5% to 30% of pre-orders will actually buy a R1T or R1S when it's their turn.

That 50k+ deposit number is going to result in 2500 to 18000 immediate sales. Rivian knows this but the higher the "preorders" the better it looks for them.

Some people will swing back in a year or two but most people aren't going to risk that much money on an unproven product with very unknown quality & service. Putting down a 1k completely refundable w no questions asked deposit is a meaningless gesture that doesn't translate to any commitment

 

[jjswan33]

Do you mind sharing when was the first filing at what was the number? I reserved in August and it looks like I will fall in 2023. I am trying to guess what part of 23. It looks like Lightning may get me first.

It was ~48k as of the end of Sep filing.

 

[EVTrucking]

I can't stress enough that this is based on the total pre-orders. Only a small percentage of pre-orders will become sales.

Realistically only 5% to 30% of pre-orders will actually buy a R1T or R1S when it's their turn.

That 50k+ deposit number is going to result in 2500 to 18000 immediate sales. Rivian knows this but the higher the "preorders" the better it looks for them.

Some people will swing back in a year or two but most people aren't going to risk that much money on an unproven product with very unknown quality & service.

IMO the percentage of pre-orders to real orders will be closer to 70%. Just my opinion based on the actual real alternatives to the Rivian in the 2022-2023 time frame and that lots and lots of folks already spend big bucks for decked out ICE trucks!

 

[jjwolf120]

Realistically only 5% to 30% of pre-orders will actually buy a R1T or R1S when it's their turn.

Where did you pull this number from?

 

[sacramentoelectric]

All orders prior to September 31st, 2021 are expected to be filled in 2022.
Unless you think Rivian is now engaging in securities fraud by lying on their S1 filings

That's not what they are saying now. They amended their filing and took out that language.

 

[Zoidz]

I can't stress enough that this is based on the total pre-orders. Only a small percentage of pre-orders will become sales.

Realistically only 5% to 30% of pre-orders will actually buy a R1T or R1S when it's their turn.

I agree that there will be people dropping their orders, but I can't see it being only 5% to 30% fullfillment rate. Based on Tesla fullfillment rates, and the size of the Rivian deposit ($1000 deposits are more serious and thought out than $50 - $100 deposits), I think the fullfillment rate will be at least 55%, if not 65% - 70%.

 

[Bobthebuilder352]

Where did you pull this number from?

It’s called a WAG but based on the range it’s probably a drunk WAG.

a more reasonable estimate is a minimum 60% purchase rate. I think this goes up even more with the allowance of test drives and other ability to look under the hood.

 

[kylealden]

Under promise, over deliver... They will not survive and their stock won't hold any tangible value if it takes them another 2 years to deliver the 55,000 vehicles currently on order.

Wanna bet?

Let's ignore for a second that "by the end of 2023" could mean January 3rd, 2023.

Tesla only produced 1700 Model 3s in 2017. When this article was written, the Model 3 production ramp was around 20/week, below where the R1T is today. And at that point Tesla was a comparatively mature manufacturer with a decade of sales behind them. It took them a full year to get to 53k deliveries (Q3 2018).

Last quarter, Tesla delivered a quarter million Model 3/Ys (incidentally, the "early 2020s" target that Seeking Alpha forecasted in the link above, which was an extremely contrary, optimistic view at the time). If you'd bought Tesla stock in 2017, you'd be a happy camper right now.

Rivian's forecasted ramp is not a whole hell of a lot slower than that, especially since it includes launching launching two other vehicles and they are brand new to this. Oh yeah, and they're launching in the middle of an unprecedented supply chain crisis and a global pandemic. I'd say the numbers are pretty good.

Investing is still risky, and we'll see what they can pull off, but "they will not survive and their stock won't hold if it takes them two years" is laughable.

 

[hed]

Some of this depends on how many LEs you think there are. I think they limited LE orders and that they'll be close to meeting the Spring deadline for LE deliveries. No way are they going to be less than 1/3 through LEs more than a year from now.

But no matter how many LEs you think people ordered, what you describe is the schedule of a company that's going out of business quickly. If you really believe that, you should get your money back now, because there's no way you're getting a truck.

On my cursory read of the filing, I thought I read 55k+. Perhaps I need to go back and read it again. But for this moment, let's assume it is 55k. Then yes, I do not think they will have produced over 16-17k vehicles by the end of 2022. I could be wrong, it might be 20k, but I wouldn't consider myself being out of the ball park if it was below half (25k).

If the pre-orders are 16-17k then, yes, they might get that done by the end of next year. Though I wouldnt bet the farm on it.

I also don't know if it means Rivian would be going out of business. That is not a given. Most of us are now used to delays for products due to covid supply chain interruptions. From that perspective there is more understanding among consumers.

From a financial perspective there is a willingness of the markets to be willfully ignorant for the sake of a quick stock win.

Just look at Nikola. Even though Nikola got busted, the fact that something so obvious a fraud got as far as it did could be considered a lesson on how wide a berth EV startups are given at this stage of the game. Somewhat similar to the dot.com bubble of yesteryear but not necessarily the exact same situation.

I am not worried about the deposit. I want the vehicle. I want better communication and I want a realistic expectation to be set. If Rivian can set one to get me excited, they can set one to keep it tempered and real.

 

[Taycanfrank]

Tesla is a known commodity with a huge network, apples to oranges. Look at preorders vs fulfillment on Taycans & the iPace, which are still known companies with actual dealerships. The Taycan ended up well below 33% orders from deposits and required a larger commitment upfront. The iPace was/is being given away from inventory overflow. I was quoted 12/21 for my Taycan and got it 09/20, even with production delays.

A refundable deposit of $1,000 is nothing. How many of those preorders are people with Teslas that just wanted to be on the list? How many will be scared away by the tax rebate talk? How many will say "how do I get this thing fixed if something goes wrong?"?

 

[Zoidz]

Then yes, I do not think they will have produced over 16-17k vehicles by the end of 2022.

I'm comfortable thinking that they will have the production line capable of running more than 25K in 2022. I'm just not sure about supply chain and labor constraints.

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