Rivian stock falls with Tesla’s Mythical Cybertruck seen as ‘fundamental and headline risk’

[VSG]

I admire your relentless pimping of Rivian by trashing Ford. I hope it pays off for your stock. I try to see things as they are, not how I want them to be.

You seem to be confused - I'm not trashing Ford. The only "bad" thing I said about Ford, which happens to be true, is that they have not performed nearly as well as they said they would.

My posts aren't anti-Ford, they're simply putting Rivian's accomplishments into context against their only current competitor in the EV truck market. And by comparison, Rivian is currently doing a better job than Ford. Which is remarkable for a startup, especially when all the other startups in this space are failing (e.g. Lordstown) or just failing to deliver entirely (e.g. Cybertruck) over the same time period. (Oh, now I guess you will call me out for being "anti-Tesla" because I stated the fact that Tesla promised to deliver the Cybertruck *before* the R1T and now, two years later, has still not delivered anything?)

I don't think they're a production monster waiting to eat up all rivals.

I didn't imply that about Rivian. I said FORD was supposed to be (in your words) the production monster waiting to eat up all rivals, but has turned out to be a shadow puppet that, when the projector is turned around, is revealed to be less capable than even a puny startup like Rivian. It's Ford that's in trouble here - they haven't been able to keep up with their one current competitor. They allowed their dealer network to overcharge for the Lightning, and now they have to make desperate price cuts (even though they were already losing a lot of money per vehicle) just to keep the Lightning viable. They don't have much time to fix things with the Lightning, because there are going to be a few new competitors next year, and those new competitors won't be small startups like Rivian.

No, I'm not worried at all about Rivian meetings their 2023 targets, because they've demonstrated they can do better than the heavyweight in the same circumstances. Ford, however, needs to up its game if it wants to stay relevant. Maybe with the all-new ground-up redesign of the Lightning they're planning for 2025 ... but the world is going to change a lot before then. Just wait until the Chinese EVs hit the market next year - even Jim Farley has said that's going to be a problem for Ford.

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[txtravwill]

You seem to be confused - I'm not trashing Ford. The only "bad" thing I said about Ford, which happens to be true, is that they have not performed nearly as well as they said they would.

My posts aren't anti-Ford, they're simply putting Rivian's accomplishments into context against their only current competitor in the EV truck market. And by comparison, Rivian is currently doing a better job than Ford. Which is remarkable for a startup, especially when all the other startups in this space are failing (e.g. Lordstown) or just failing to deliver entirely (e.g. Cybertruck) over the same time period. (Oh, now I guess you will call me out for being "anti-Tesla" because I stated the fact that Tesla promised to deliver the Cybertruck *before* the R1T and now, two years later, has still not delivered anything?)

Read back some. I'd say a lot of Ford's issue is now demand also and the truck buyer market. Truck buyers are generally fans of their brand, Ford/RAM/GMC/Chevy, and they stick with their brand, but in general they are not wanting and EV, or anti-EV for what may be several reasons. I predict GM will be the biggest overall competitor, but they are so behind on their plans also for now but won't be for much longer. There is a % of current truck buyers that are open to EV but its smaller. There is a niche group of EV buyers/previous EV owners and all that like trucks/larger SUVs and that is where Rivian has opportunity - but it needs to expand that. A smaller SUV will do better as that market is huge and there are much more folks that would consider an EV in that market, probably largest move to EV group out of all vehicle types of course being the biggest market group. Of course also the price entry at a lower cost is a big deal to seize those also, 40k+ is key.

Anyways, hope Rivian can:
- Get the R2 out ASAP
- Get R1S solid, and keep pumping those out
- Keep R1T improving, lower numbers, even consider a larger version.
- Refresh the R1 line like automakers do after ~4 or so years or continuously to keep some demand
- Expand its service and delivery capabilities, a partnership would be good even if possible
- Secure its next round of cash IT WILL need in 1.5 years give or take, can't go to $0 as that would tank RIVN before it does. This prob scares me most since rates are so high right now it won't be cheap and hurt long-term profitability.