I'm Getting Cold Feet [** CLOSED DUE TO POLITICS DISCUSSION **]

[SANZC02]

Just my 2 cents that has served me well.

Never make a decision to do something you need to be talked into. That internal voice of reason if nothing else, should cause you to pause until it no longer has objections.

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[SANZC02]

Used R1T prices are slowly dipping as well. R1T’s were fetching $115-$130 9-months ago. I think most of the “gotta have it now” buyers have purchased one already.

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/rbqYD88Q/2022-rivian-r1t-adventure

They will continue to drop but was surprised to see an R1S on cars and bids close at 130k today.

 

[mini2nut]

The R1S is a fresh model so they will bring top dollar for the next 9-months or so. The R1T has been out for over a year now.

 

[moosehead]

Do what you need to do financially. It doesn’t matter how special this or any other rig is, they are depreciating assets. What we saw the past few years of the car market was the anomaly, not the norm.

The Fed is achieving its goals whether we like it or not.

I’m a Rivian fanboi despite the start up hurdles and share the desire to leave a smaller footprint. Regardless, your family comes first.

 

[the long way downunder]

I love the RS1, but just can't justify the investment at this point with the looming recession.
I did a quick breakeven analysis based on my current driving costs, and the cost of the RS1 would take 26 years to recoup. And I currently drive an LX570.
Yes, the vehicle is gorgeous. Yes, it is fast as sh!t
And Yes great for the environment. But $80k for transportation is tough to swallow. I'd hate to give up my spot for the quad-motor since they wont be making them anymore.

Can anyone talk me off the fence?

What did you use as a baseline for the cost analysis?

The US economy is 6-9 months into this recession; no way of knowing when it will be worst or when it will recovery. Last week, it looked like a financial collapse, after Monday and Tuesday this week, it looks like most government-induced snafu … worst hit will be low income households.

A recession in the US could last 12-24 months. The impact of a recession on vehicle total-cost-of-ownership is far too complex to model and have a reliable number. Buying during a recession is a good strategy, selling during a recession tends to be inefficient. Owning a new car less than 36 months tends to be inefficient, so ownership today (2022-23) will certainly outlast this recession.

I respect the Land Cruiser, even the new ones, even the Lexus badged ones, especially the GX, not just the LX. The Landie is one of those legends of off roaders. As a life long Land Rover enthusiast, when I'm "way out back of nowhere and going further" I tend to meet someone in a Landie and he'd say "if you bump into someone out here, they're in a Toyota or a Land Rover …" : ) Still, compared to an LX570, just about anything looks like good value. : ) It's a heavyweight Land Cruiser not offered with its jewel diesel in the USA, so it's also a gas-guzzler and has near zero resale value (because it's a niche owner demographic and compares poorly to soft-roader seven-seaters for costs and on-road capabilities.)

"The <vehicle> will lose 50% of its purchase price in the first 36 months of nominal usage."

That broad rule will not change and will not be better or worse unless you get into specific and unique vehicles handled with unique care to the purpose of retained value or appreciation.

There's a broad selection of (ICE) vehicles that are be better value and more utility for the dollar.
Measured solely on the value scale, the R1S is no match for far lesser SUVs.

In the EV world, Rivian is top of the food chain for the foreseeable future.

For the R1T, I'd suggest one could order a Maverick, Ranger or F-150, get one in '23 and never regret not owning an R1T that hopefully by then is as common as Camrys. I don't agree with any direct comparison to other SUVs (EV or ICE) given the R1S is just too different. I have an X beside the R1T and the R1S is like a Model X only it can do stuff other than just sprint 0-60 and exude "look at me!" vibes. : )

I could compare the R1S to the 2024 Land Rover Range Rover EV (which will be about $200K+) but that's the nearest comparable and I wonder if the Rangie EV can deliver in '24 what the R1 is already delivering in '22. I looked at the EQS SUV … that's a luxury on-road vehicle at 2x or 3x the price.

The Silverado, Sierra and F-150 will surely all spawn SUV derivatives. GM and Ford are announcing every few months with "here's our new EV strategy!" products.

The strongest "procrastination" argument I can think of for passing on a Rivian is the expanding selection of EVs arriving in '23 and '24.

I assume we can agree that a new vehicle is consumption, not investment, even though the R1T in my garage could be sold today for a profit (however smaller than could have been taken months ago) I didn't order it in 2018 as a speculation on profit or loss in 2020 (when it was expected to arrive …) but as an $80K hole in the cashflow for consumption of something of value. I drove it yesterday for the first time in ages and thought "geez, I should have sold this for a profit back in March!" and then thought "easy to coulda-shoulda-woulda" and really I'm looking forward to winter in the R1T. It's going to be epic. When I trade it, I'm sure it will be at a nominal loss and cost of ownership. I think the ownership experience is worth the cost.

 

[ohseedee]

I love the RS1, but just can't justify the investment at this point with the looming recession.
I did a quick breakeven analysis based on my current driving costs, and the cost of the RS1 would take 26 years to recoup. And I currently drive an LX570.
Yes, the vehicle is gorgeous. Yes, it is fast as sh!t
And Yes great for the environment. But $80k for transportation is tough to swallow. I'd hate to give up my spot for the quad-motor since they wont be making them anymore.

Can anyone talk me off the fence?

I'm probably going to talk you off the other side of the fence. You don't need it. If you WANT it bad enough and plan to enjoy the hell out of it, and that joy is worth it, get it. But if you are looking for a sound transpiration investment, don't do it.

I've done the calculation for my situation. Because I do NEED a truck and because I do plan on enjoying the hell out of it doing things I can't do now (off roading, camping, etc.) and because my current vehicle is getting a little long in the tooth (6 years+), it's worth it for me.

 

[COdogman]

No one *needs* an $80k+ vehicle whether it’s an EV or ICE. Your Lexus was in the same price range so the cost can’t be the real barrier for you. And no one knows for sure if there will be a recession and if so how bad it might be. Ask 10 people and they will all have 10 different opinions on that.

People here have all kinds of reasons they are buying their R1s. To some it’s environmental. To some it’s a performance vehicle. To some it’s just unique and they have to have it. I’m not really sure how you came up with 26 years to recoup your costs for the R1S, but it does feel like you *want* to be talked out of it. And if that is the case you probably shouldn’t do it.

Your Lexus is a fine vehicle and will probably give you lots of years of trouble free miles. But those are all miles you have to buy gas for and you also don’t have control over that. We already know OPEC is tightening production which will raise gas prices again. About 75% of the cost of a gallon of gas is set by those oil producers, not by anyone else. So it could get worse. Make sure you factor that into your analysis too. To me that should be just as much cause for concern as the recession.

 

[crashmtb]

Buying a brand new vehicle is almost never a sound investment from a financial/economic perspective unless it’s somehow collectible and is guaranteed to appreciate.

if that’s your primary concern don’t buy it.

 

[RexRemus]

I love the RS1, but just can't justify the investment at this point with the looming recession.
I did a quick breakeven analysis based on my current driving costs, and the cost of the RS1 would take 26 years to recoup. And I currently drive an LX570.
Yes, the vehicle is gorgeous. Yes, it is fast as sh!t
And Yes great for the environment. But $80k for transportation is tough to swallow. I'd hate to give up my spot for the quad-motor since they wont be making them anymore.

Can anyone talk me off the fence?

If you're calling it the RS1, I'd say call it quits, go buy something else

 

[PowerBugs]

I love the RS1, but just can't justify the investment at this point with the looming recession.
I did a quick breakeven analysis based on my current driving costs, and the cost of the RS1 would take 26 years to recoup. And I currently drive an LX570.
Yes, the vehicle is gorgeous. Yes, it is fast as sh!t
And Yes great for the environment. But $80k for transportation is tough to swallow. I'd hate to give up my spot for the quad-motor since they wont be making them anymore.

Can anyone talk me off the fence?

You know you want it but logic tells you it’s not making sense paying for that kind of investment without positive returns.
It’s a splurge, a treat or a gift to yourself~ whatever you call it, it may not make sense and you can’t go wrong going the other way.
Whatever you decide, be comfortable and proud with it.
And if you decide not to, you should never say you wish you gave a go and now it’s too late…

 

[Revelation]

I love the RS1, but just can't justify the investment at this point with the looming recession.
I did a quick breakeven analysis based on my current driving costs, and the cost of the RS1 would take 26 years to recoup. And I currently drive an LX570.
Yes, the vehicle is gorgeous. Yes, it is fast as sh!t
And Yes great for the environment. But $80k for transportation is tough to swallow. I'd hate to give up my spot for the quad-motor since they wont be making them anymore.

Can anyone talk me off the fence?

Take what I am about to type with a grain of salt - I've been wrong in the past; I have also been right.

I believe with the cosying up with Saudi Arabia and Russia that we may well see an oil embargo in 2023. If that happens all bets are off.

 

[crashmtb]

Take what I am about to type with a grain of salt - I've been wrong in the past; I have also been right.

I believe with the cosying up with Saudi Arabia and Russia that we may well see an oil embargo in 2023. If that happens all bets are off.

Oil prices mean fuck all WRT gas prices.


alao, check out how much Saudi money is in Rivian.

 

[COdogman]

Oil prices mean fuck all WRT gas prices.


alao, check out how much Saudi money is in Rivian.

 

[srnyoung]

I love the RS1, but just can't justify the investment at this point with the looming recession.
I did a quick breakeven analysis based on my current driving costs, and the cost of the RS1 would take 26 years to recoup. And I currently drive an LX570.
Yes, the vehicle is gorgeous. Yes, it is fast as sh!t
And Yes great for the environment. But $80k for transportation is tough to swallow. I'd hate to give up my spot for the quad-motor since they wont be making them anymore.

Can anyone talk me off the fence?

First, I agree with others' first pass - if you are only looking at the financials, then you should keep your Lexus. A new luxury car is not a good investment...

How much did you price those intangibles you mentioned; Gorgeous, FAST, Better for the Environment?

If you care about money and Carbon, keep your Lexus and buy a cheap used electric car for short trips! Here is a $12k Leaf.

If you want to support the R&D of new electric vehicles and want to be a part of club Rivian, how much is that worth to you?

Reading between the lines, it sounds like you don't REALLY care about the other stuff. In that case, seems better to sit the early round out and see if the next version is something you can better justify, for any or all reasons!

Happy trails!

 

[rivianguy]

For some on this forum the purchase of an R1S is a rounding error on their finances. For some it's an irresponsible decision that puts their financial situation at risk. Most fall somewhere between the extreme ends of that spectrum.

Only you can decide where you are on that sliding bar. All signs point towards a difficult economic climate ahead so if you are closer to the 'I don't have 6 Tesla's in my garage' category then the smart money is to not move ahead with purchasing the vehicle.

You could drive yourself crazy trying to prognosticate about gas prices, resale values and so on but at the end of the day nobody really knows so the thing you might want to base your decision on is will I enjoy this vehicle enough to justify the cost, and can my current financial situation handle a purchase of this nature if something unexpected happens.

I'm not a 'baller' like some of the folks on this forum so having never personally owned a McLaren, Raptor, Model X etc. I can tell you this vehicle is more like an 'experience' for me than it is just a car. I get a lot of utility out of it, and while making this purchase likely delayed my retirement by some yet to be determined amount of time I'm having a blast having adventures in it with my son, and will continue to do so over the next n number of years. Note - that's a non-economic justification.

Nobody can tell you what's right for you (I'm sure you know this) but I'd keep it simple and narrow down your decision criteria to a few important things and then @#$# or get off the fence.

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