The looming recession & your place in line for a Rivian [WARNING: NO POLITICS]

[Riviot]

5 pages of riviot savant investor advice, I don't think I can handle it... Y'all already got my DSP shares, what other snake oil are you selling???

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[Bigeasy70075]

even with higher interest rate makes good financial sense if you are coming from an ICE vehicle. can afford an extra $200 a month note if you're saving $400 on gas price.

 

[yizzung]

even with higher interest rate makes good financial sense if you are coming from an ICE vehicle. can afford an extra $200 a month note if you're saving $400 on gas price.

Pretty sure an $85,000 truck is not the only way to go electric. And my ICE is paid off, so going in the hole $85,000 to save $200/month in fuel is a pretty long path to an ROI.

 

[NY_Rob]

The upside is, anyone who was fortunate enough to actually take delivery of a Rivian vehicle could always flip it at zero loss (at a bare minimum) if thing got rough for them financially.

 

[Mysta]

I know the reality of it won’t actually be this ideal but given oil companies were basically given like 160bn dollars in 2020 and laid off 60k+ people and now are like “yeah we cant do more sorry heres higher prices for the “demand”“ accounting for at least 3% of the 8% inflation, should make rivian more desirable.(very much oversimplified given the global nature) Seems like energy independence should be a saught after thing not only on a national level but personal too. Recycling is another beast but it too shall pass.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

The upside is, anyone who was fortunate enough to actually take delivery of a Rivian vehicle could always flip it at zero loss (at a bare minimum) if thing got rough for them financially.

This is part of the comfort for anyone looking to buy and concerned, although I do wonder how long that will last for someone who buys in 2022. At what point will there either be enough Rivians on the road OR will the next generation of EV tech make a '22 R1 no longer worth what you paid (pre-march).

I'd like to think through 2023 at least but if the dual motor is ahead of schedule as RJ insists that may not be the case.

 

[Sully151]

I am more worried about Rivian surviving the recession than I am about me.

My wife and I have stable jobs. Except for Rivian Shares, we don’t play the Stock Market. Thanks to an inheritance with the explicit order of “use it for something fun” the Rivian is pretty much paid for.

Rivian, a new company, with a software based luxury EV has a little more risk involved.

 

[yizzung]

Any growth company with profits way out in the future could be in trouble. All startups are getting hammered and access to capital is going to be dicey near term.

Also, not that it matters, but millennials are between 28-42 years old. I’m sure plenty in this range can afford fancy cars…

 

[E.S.]

Also, not that it matters, but millennials are between 28-42 years old. I’m sure plenty in this range can afford fancy cars…

You'd be surprised how many actually cannot, especially the lower end of that spectrum.

 

[Revelation]

The upside is, anyone who was fortunate enough to actually take delivery of a Rivian vehicle could always flip it at zero loss (at a bare minimum) if thing got rough for them financially.

Today that is true... There are a lot of people who think the recession or depression that is looming is going to be much, much worse. If it gets as bad as some think, you will even see pre-owned R1Ts being sold for pennies on the dollar. It really depends on how high inflation is going to go. It also depends on how many ARMs start adjusting within the next 18 months.

Once the food shortages kick in and the general public become aware, prices on food will skyrocket. Things are lining up to make this one really bad, I hope not...

 

[Dark-Fx]

Really? I would think being a millennial you would think the economy was great. 1995 to present has had some of the best years with low interest rates ever. There were a couple of blips in 2001 and 2008/9 but other than that it was a good stretch.

The economy had been pretty good but it was at the expense of the newest working class. Housing isn't affordable for someone who doesn't already own. Didn't have as much money to put into the stock market so missed out on a lot of the gains. Wages have been stagnating for a long time.

 

[TheIglu]

No debt (live way below our means), maxed out 401k/IRA/i-series bonds, had excess cash laying around, with inflation the way it is, this was the first time in my life I could feel "ok" about buying a depreciating asset since the depreciation will likely be on track with inflation for the next year or two at least.

-Last year of GenX (graduated in tech a year after the tech collapse, bought a house a year before the housing bubble collapse, still have it better than millennials/Gen Y)

 

[OldGoat]

boy, seems like we've been skating pretty close to the no politics line, so, I'll try to nudge the topic towards the middle.

I'm a max pack reservation holder slated for 2nd half of 2023. For those of us in this boat, there is absolutely no reason to fret about where things may be with the economy or Rivian (I guess it's technically possible someone really needs the $1k deposit immediately...but it can't be many). I'll decide when I need to decide and I'll have more data in, say October 2023 about the economy, stability of Rivian, resale value, product quality and support, etc..

In fact, I always advise people to take this approach, i.e. one should always wait until the last possible moment to make a decision so as to gather as much data as possible. The last possible moment being the point at which any further delay has an adverse impact on the business case.

Therefore, to me the more interesting question is : "Given the current state and direction of the economy, Rivian, and your own personal situation, if you got the call today to complete the purchase of your Rivian would you:
1) Jump on it and enjoy the heck out of it 2) Try to delay it 3) Cancel it or 4)Jump on it with the intent to flip it for a profit"

It would be interesting to ask this question every three months and see the trend.

 

[Count Orlok]

Considering it takes 6 months of data to know if a recession exists, I am sure Rivian will delivery my R1S well before I can make a data driven decision.

 

[R_1_T]

You'd be surprised how many actually cannot, especially the lower end of that spectrum.

On top of that, consider that most are being leased just in order for them to be "affordable".

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