Info From RJ's Fireside Chat on June 2nd (w/ mention of LFP batteries)

[hiimisaac]

Eh, regarding Tesla, it's a "yes & no" scenario to me. Like you pointed out, they've become the definitive "EV company" to meet and (hopefully) surpass. But that bar isn't really that high.

Regarding meeting Audi and Porsche, I don't see it as being unrealistic, more like something akin to this: a 2nd place athlete trying to catch up to #1. Yes, it's a high bar that Audi/Porsche have a major long term advantage in, but it's a bar that, with what Rivian is charging for these vehicles, should be able to reach, even if it is after they iron out their production issues due to being to inexperienced in that field.

The production issues are just, as you said, being inexperienced on the line. Running the line inefficiently (slower) is not going to do them any favors when they finally get support from suppliers and they want to start cranking these out. It's smart how they're running the line now. Also gives time for the training to be applied while being able to reflect on what you could have done better.

There are a lot of us cross-shopping Rivian against other brands, including ICE vehicles. If Rivian is only slightly above the Tesla bar by the time my order is up, I'm going to have to pass.

Yeah, and that's fair. And you should. Manufacturers cannot get better unless we hold them accountable for their issues. It's the reason Tesla still cranks out crap. People are *still* taking deliveries despite the bad quality.

I just wouldn't expect Rivian to be on par with other, long-term, established OEMs with tenured employees and well established practices and methodologies. That's all.

Sponsored

 

[Max]

Eh, regarding Tesla, it's a "yes & no" scenario to me. Like you pointed out, they've become the definitive "EV company" to meet and (hopefully) surpass. But that bar isn't really that high.

Regarding meeting Audi and Porsche, I don't see it as being unrealistic, more like something akin to this: a 2nd place athlete trying to catch up to #1. Yes, it's a high bar that Audi/Porsche have a major long term advantage in, but it's a bar that, with what Rivian is charging for these vehicles, should be able to reach, even if it is after they iron out their production issues due to being to inexperienced in that field.

I agree. This is not an elementary school activity that you get a star for participation. In the marketplace that consumers have a choice on how to spend their money, not everyone elect to drop $90K on a new vehicle so they can be stranded on the road if they have better options. And not everyone define better option as better specs. Reliability and quality is hi on many consumers priority list. And I think RJ knows that. He has listed quality as one of Rivian’s top priority/values. I have no doubt, they are working to improve it. How they will do, we will have to see.

 

[hiimisaac]

Reliability and quality is hi on many consumers priority list. And I think RJ knows that. He has listed quality as one of Rivian’s top priority/values. I have no doubt, they are working to improve it. How they will do, we will have to see.

I really think buying from a start-up EV manufacturer and reliability and quality are mutually exclusive. ESPECIALLY a first run product.

 

[Speedrye]

I really think buying from a start-up EV manufacturer and reliability and quality are mutually exclusive. ESPECIALLY a first run product.

I'll guess we'll see how good MIT was at teaching this to RJ, haha.

 

[EVTrucking]

I really think buying from a start-up EV manufacturer and reliability and quality are mutually exclusive. ESPECIALLY a first run product.

A portion of the the QC issues may be due to poor or inconsistent quality of parts on hand. Vendors have a learning curve as well. And there is the learning associated with vendor parts needing tweaking.

I think in a parts starved situation there is a tendency to use some parts that would normally be set aside. Not known but suspected marginal parts.

 

[MountainBikeDude]

Question for the group, and likely answering my own question in asking it...

With the obvious advantages of LFP over Lithium Ion packs, I assume the reason they are only really using them in the lesser range models is because they need more batteries to make up the range/loss of pack efficiency, thus the chasis packaging on the R1 platform can only allow for an LFP pack that occupies the same space as the 314 mile pack, but only deliver 250ish?

 

[mkg3]

Based on "base model" comment, it can very well mean that Rivian may use LFP in R1 Explore models or that they will introduce Standard Pack for Explore models in the current form.

Another interpretation is that they've made more progress in dual motor version and can start shipping sooner than 2024.

In either case, its all to lower cost of battery packs between the materials and supply issues.

 

[hiimisaac]

Question for the group, and likely answering my own question in asking it...

With the obvious advantages of LFP over Lithium Ion packs, I assume the reason they are only really using them in the lesser range models is because they need more batteries to make up the range/loss of pack efficiency, thus the chasis packaging on the R1 platform can only allow for an LFP pack that occupies the same space as the 314 mile pack, but only deliver 250ish?

So, it's important to note that LFP is still lithium-ion. But, it really depends on how they plan to execute this. There's the option of adding more batteries to make it 135kwh, and it only hitting 260 miles is the result of being less energy dense; or they go a lesser kwh pack, but it weights the same as the NMC and thus they get 260 miles.

 

[hiimisaac]

Based on "base model" comment, it can very well mean that Rivian may use LFP in R1 Explore models or that they will introduce Standard Pack for Explore models in the current form.

Another interpretation is that they've made more progress in dual motor version and can start shipping sooner than 2024.

In either case, its all to lower cost of battery packs between the materials and supply issues.

You can't option quad motors with LFP, so they must be satisfied with their findings of the Enduro motor in the EDV applications. So, LFP will only ship when Enduro is ready. Both of which are going into the EDV vans today that are coming off the line.

 

[jjswan33]

GM is already making a 260 mile EV for $30K (Bolt). I have no doubt Koreans and VW are already gunning for sub $30K EVs

Just lowered prices to starting at $26,595. Just think if the feds fixed the tax credit to be refundable and not capped so that GM was eligible. It would put EV ownership within reach of most Americans.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/gm-...-bolt-evs-despite-rising-commodity-costs.html

 

[the long way downunder]

UPDATED FOLLOWING FIRESIDE CHAT:

Here are my notes. I don’t think there was very much new information. I was surprised that RJ said that they are currently building four vehicles this year. Apparently, they are building two different sizes of the EDV, both the 500 and 700. I was under the impression that they were only building one version of the EDV this year.

• LFP battery packs will begin shipping for consumer vehicles early next year. That's roughly a year ahead of their 2024 timing on the website! [noted by @hiimisaac]
• They're also incredibly bullish on LFP. I don't think they have any plans to not continue with the smaller, LFP packs as a lot of people have speculated. [noted by @hiimisaac]
• Reiterated that the goal is to have overall market share of 10% of the entire new car market, which is expected to be selling only electric cars by the end of the decade.
• R2 vehicles will be priced from $40k to $60k and is anticipated to begin production in Georgia in 2025.
• Very important to ramp up R2 volume with expansion to Europe and China in the future.
• Normal plant is currently running 30 hours a week. For the second half of the year, this is expected to ramp up dramatically due to better relationships with semiconductor suppliers.
• Normal plant will be expanded to produce up to 200k vehicles a year and will continue to only manufacture R1s and EDVs.
• Base models and commercial EDVs will have a LFP battery pack, which are cheaper than the nickel based batteries. Not sure what base models mean. I assume R1s with dual motors since he said this will happen starting next year for the R1s.

ORIGINAL POST

Link to tomorrow‘s chat at 3:30pm ET.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...’s-38th-Annual-Strategic-Decisions-Conference

I noticed RJ also did a chat with Morgan Stanley last week. Listening to it now.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...Morgan-Stanley-Sustainable-Futures-Conference

That's a mixed bag of new information and "raises more questions" information.
You've got to laugh at the 10% goal … if someone at Rivian really plans on 10% they better sharpen their calculator keys and put fresh ink in their abacus … the world auto industry was approaching 80M pre-pandemic (which is still a huge problem.) If EVs take over say 80% of the auto industry by 2030 – wet thumb to the wind – call it 60-70 million EVs in 2030 …

 

[Max]

Just lowered prices to starting at $26,595. Just think if the feds fixed the tax credit to be refundable and not capped so that GM was eligible. It would put EV ownership within reach of most Americans.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/gm-...-bolt-evs-despite-rising-commodity-costs.html

I know it is hip these days to do GM bashing but I like the company. I have owned a ton of their cars and except one that had transmission issue around 100K, I loved all of them. Despite the fireworks, lots of folks love Bolt.

 

[jjswan33]

I know it is hip these days to do GM bashing but I like the company. I have owned a ton of their cars and except one that had transmission issue around 100K, I loved all of them. Despite the fireworks, lots of folks love Bolt.

I'm with you. If I could get a tax credit I would buy a Bolt for my mom so she can go EV.

Also I think GM is well positioned, they have reasonable tech and capable of producing a high volume of EVs. I have a handful of their shares and even with my R1T I consider ordering the Silverado EV. With the midgate and a topper I could see it being a kickass camping rig.

 

[DJG]

Plus LFP batteries will last a very long time, and are suitable for frequent V2H use.

The only reason for nickel based batteries are range, and possibly peak performance. But an LFP dual motor Rivian is stilla 5 second vehicles, which is still very fast.

LFP in delivery vehicles is the obvious choice.

4 seconds actually...

 

[Max]

I'm with you. If I could get a tax credit I would buy a Bolt for my mom so she can go EV.

Also I think GM is well positioned, they have reasonable tech and capable of producing a high volume of EVs. I have a handful of their shares and even with my R1T I consider ordering the Silverado EV. With the midgate and a topper I could see it being a kickass camping rig.

Absolutely. I ordered Silverado as soon as they were ready to take the orders. I dreamed of an Avalanche mid-gate in EV form for years. Although I won't pay for the top trim, if lowest trim with a mid-gate has competitive pricing with R1S Explore, I may jump ship. That is assuming Rivian delays get me close enough to Silverado. I like size of R1S but 800V charging, 10+ KW AC output and versatility of Chevy is very attractive.

Edit: If Silverado does not leak power like R1 does, that could seal the deal.

Sponsored