Toyota - First to Commercialize Solid State Batteries?

[Coast2Coast]

Fred Lambert of Electrek posted this article today. https://electrek.co/2020/12/11/toyota-electric-car-solid-state-battery-10-min-fast-charging/ He's a bit skeptical of Asia Nikkei''s writeup of developments at Toyota.

Asia Nikkei is very reliable source. It's the equivalent of the Wall Street Journal in Japan. Toyota promised solid state batteries for the now postponed 2020 Olympics. They were supposed to power people hauler vehicles for the Olympics Games, not commercially available retail vehicles. But, presumably, if people haulers perform well, it wouldn't be long until commercial vehicle variants appeared.

Toyota is a notoriously conservative company. It doesn't bring anything to market until it's proven to be 100% reliable. With the Olympics rescheduled for 2021 and with Toyota and Panasonic forming an joint venture earlier this year for EV battery development, I wouldn't be surprised if Toyota makes a big splash next year by announcing commercially viable, auto solid state batteries (ASSB) available in a 2022-23 timetable. Here's the joint venture announcement between Toyota and Panasonic. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/20/toyota-panasonic-form-battery-manufacturing-partnership/

I'd lend a fair amount of credibility to Lambert's article. Toyota is notoriously conservative, but it's an enormously proud company and much more of a vehicle of national pride than GM and Ford are here. With the world's attention on the Olympics, I wouldn't be surprised if Akio Toyoda, grandson of the founder of Toyota and current CEO, makes an announcement about the near term availability of commercially viable auto solid state batteries. This doesn't mean that QuantumScape and others don't have a shot. It simply means that ASSB might be here sooner than we thought.

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[Pherdnut]

I don't know what it is about solid state batteries that makes everybody think they have them before they have them but whatever it is, it's made a lot of people think they have them before they have them. Dyson and Fisker are two that come to mind.

 

[Blur1t]

I don't know what it is about solid state batteries that makes everybody think they have them before they have them but whatever it is, it's made a lot of people think they have them before they have them. Dyson and Fisker are two that come to mind.

Maybe we are all in for a surprise and our mileage numbers are better by the time production and launch get going. Technology is always advancing, lithium is swiftly becoming more and more un environmental and May prove to be holding back advances in this field. I’m not the engineer but you will always get the same results if you stay the same path. there are definitely surfacing more and more possibilities elsewhere for batteries. Rivian stated you could not swap it out. However, they already have plans to recycle them in the energy grids. So it is possible to remove it. The same as any modern internal combustion engine, just that most manufacturers frown upon removing it and replacing it alternatively for many reasons. Just a lot more costly. We are bound to what’s available now, we can all hope for “over air improvements” but I’m not counting on it becoming that effective. Covid has messed up even the deepest pockets from getting where they want to be as far as advances go, but soon we will see some vast improvements. I look forward to what the future holds. Hats off to Toyota if they can pull it off, they definitely have the deep pockets. They know how to make cars last, all manufacturers could hope to have their integrity. Ford and GM have a lot to learn. Rivian has some bright new minds, I think they will get there, for I am personally banking on it...

 

[Coast2Coast]

Here's another announcement from Torque News about Toyota's solid state battery plans for 2021. https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FFNDWMkvFQcbkgktcgxtCmpqJzxqxGKr?projector=1

If Toyota (and Panasonic) succeeds with commercially viable solid state batteries in the near term, wow, how transportation will change. As @Blur1t says, environmental concerns with lithium ion batteries are already noteworthy, everything from sourcing precious metals to disposal of used batteries and a whole bunch more. Solid state batteries will undoubtedly have their own issues, but if they're brought successfully to market at scale, it's an industry changer, not just a game changer.

 

[neockder]

I'm willing to bet this is why Subaru is announcing an EV in the "Mid 2020s" - relying on Toyota's cells to power their vehicle.

 

[Coast2Coast]

I agree. Toyota has a 17% stake in Subaru, and Subaru doesn't have the resources to do battery R&D on its own, so it will rely on Toyota. Toyota also has cross-share holding arrangements with Mazda and Panasonic (and many other firms), so whatever battery advances occur in one firm can potentially be transferred to other alliance firms fairly quickly. But Toyota is the alliance linchpin, so Toyota decides what technologies move ahead and how quickly they are shared.

Toyota finally seems convinced that BEVs are the way, so hopefully we'll see new battery tech soon.

 

[electruck]

I'm willing to bet this is why Subaru is announcing an EV in the "Mid 2020s" - relying on Toyota's cells to power their vehicle.

Given that it will be built on the e-TNGA platform co-developed by Subaru and Toyota, I'd say that's a pretty safe bet.

 

[ajdelange]

Solid phase electrolytes and silicon anodes solve major problems but I see these as evolutionary rather than revolutionary.

 

[Coast2Coast]

New developments, like solid phase electrolytes and silicon anodes, are looked at in two ways in business schools - from technical and market perspectives. While somethings may not be revolutionary technically, they can still have revolutionary or near revolutionary impact in the marketplace. Solid state auto batteries are probably like this, not so revolutionary in a technical sense, but with revolutionary potential in the marketplace, especially with the rapid roll out of BEVs in the next few years.

The questions, I guess, are: how much cheaper, how much better (in terms of energy density, durability and safety) and how soon will ASSB appear

 

[discsinthesky]

New developments, like solid phase electrolytes and silicon anodes, are looked at in two ways in business schools - from technical and market perspectives. While somethings may not be revolutionary technically, they can still have revolutionary or near revolutionary impact in the marketplace. Solid state auto batteries are probably like this, not so revolutionary in a technical sense, but with revolutionary potential in the marketplace, especially with the rapid roll out of BEVs in the next few years.

The questions, I guess, are: how much cheaper, how much better (in terms of energy density, durability and safety) and how soon will ASSB appear

I think I agree with the gist of your post, but what I'm wondering is if people are still over-optimistic about how soon these will be in a position to revolutionize the marketplace. Some posters above make it sound like these things will be widely available/game changing in the 1-3 year timeframe, whereas I'm expecting something closer to 3-5 years.

 

[jjwolf120]

Some posters above make it sound like these things will be widely available/game changing in the 1-3 year timeframe, whereas I'm expecting something closer to 3-5 years.

I think it will be longer than 3-5 years until they are produced in the quantities needed for EVs

 

[LeoH]

Toyota is a major manufacturer with a high quality product and a premium Lexus brand, so it always seemed odd they had a negative stance on BEVs, given they introduced the RAV4EV and Hybrids is their forte. But looking more into the official press releases, they seemed to always hint that current BEV technology is unsustainable, which I can understand as Li batteries are too complex to manage.

Given Toyota's deep partnership with Panasonic, they even had an F1 team together, it would be naïve on their part not to seek an alternative to Lithium, even if they want to use it in their hybrids. Hydrogen and sold state batteries can provide a lethal combo under the e-TNGA platform.

My guess is that they will have BEVs but also their Hybrids will use Hydrogen as a range extender, electric propulsion is becoming too mainstream to ignore. Toyota always seems dormant until they release something that steals the star lights, 2000GT, original LandCruiser, original 86, supra celica, camry...etc

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