180 R1T produced / 156 R1T delivered as of Oct 31 -- per Updated Rivian S1 [11/1]

[Max]

Getting a Lightning before a Rivian depends on when you reserved the Lightning. Only 15,000 Lightnings are predicted by Ford to be produced in 2022.

I ordered the same night and I think I am around 20K. The 15,000 number was floating around for a while but Ford does not commit to any numbers now. It could be more..

All orders prior to September 31st, 2021 are expected to be filled in 2022.
Unless you think Rivian is now engaging in securities fraud by lying on their S1 filings

That would make my day if the new 2023 timeline does not have an impact and I get a date in 2022 before Ford. I never thought I worry about getting a date at this age.

It was just under 50k, 48k and change I think...too lazy to look it up.

Also, there is an issue of conversion rate...how many of those pre orders will actually convert to sales. I've seen some people say that 30% loss would be expected given other similar launches.
I have nothing to base it on, but given that the pre order fee is an order of magnitude more than what those other launches had required, my guy says that the Rivian pre order holders are more committed and that the conversion rate would be higher.

In other words, don't hold your breath, but be happy if/when you order goes through earlier than expected.

I think I am around 45K pre dropout but if everyone is on standby and in the dark until shortly before delivery, I could be one of the drop outs. Even a conservative range of potential delivery date from Rivian for every reservation holder is better than nothing. When Ford give me a build date, if I still don’t know where I stand with Rivian, I will most likely end up with a Ford.

p.s. No disrespect to your guy but I don’t believe deposit amount has much to do with conversation rate. It only means someone had that much money to set aside at the time of reservation. I have reservation for all three and at this point timing is the main factor for me even though my trim price, pros and cons for each is very different. But everyone’s priorities and reasons are different.

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[paariv]

On my cursory read of the filing, I thought I read 55k+. Perhaps I need to go back and read it again. But for this moment, let's assume it is 55k. Then yes, I do not think they will have produced over 16-17k vehicles by the end of 2022. I could be wrong, it might be 20k, but I wouldn't consider myself being out of the ball park if it was below half (25k).

If the pre-orders are 16-17k then, yes, they might get that done by the end of next year. Though I wouldnt bet the farm on it.

I also don't know if it means Rivian would be going out of business. That is not a given. Most of us are now used to delays for products due to covid supply chain interruptions. From that perspective there is more understanding among consumers.

*snip*

I am not worried about the deposit. I want the vehicle. I want better communication and I want a realistic expectation to be set. If Rivian can set one to get me excited, they can set one to keep it tempered and real.

You misread it. 55k total preorders: LE, explore, adventure, max pack, and everything else.

A very small number of those are LE. They shut down LE ordering after 5 days or so with no warning - which makes me think they capped it lower than 10k. 2500-5k seems more realistic. Though all of us are guessing.

This is why i said that they’d be out of business if they can’t make that in the next 14 months.

im in the same boat on other points. Their lack of comms is pretty outrageous at this point.

 

[hed]

You misread it. 55k total preorders: LE, explore, adventure, max pack, and everything else.

A very small number of those are LE. They shut down LE ordering after 5 days or so with no warning - which makes me think they capped it lower than 10k. 2500-5k seems more realistic. Though all of us are guessing.

This is why i said that they’d be out of business if they can’t make that in the next 14 months.

im in the same boat on other points. Their lack of comms is pretty outrageous at this point.

If that is the case and there are say 10k-15k LE (no relations) orders, then it is feasible they would be be able to make that. Of course that assumes LE is given priority in release and the LE numbers aren't much higher.

 

[Aroohoo]

p.s. No disrespect to your guy but I don’t believe deposit amount has much to do with conversation rate. It only means someone had that much money to set aside at the time of reservation. I have reservation for all three and at this point timing is the main factor for me even though my trim price, pros and cons for each is very different. But everyone’s priorities and reasons are different.

Stupid auto correct, should have been "gut".
Simple economics though. If it didn't cost anything (i.e. $0) pre order, there would be more vs it being $100 vs $1,000 vs $10,000. People that can afford the higher deposit are probably better off financially and more likely convert (and probably not just holding a spot because they have an aspiration and they can).

 

[Jay]

Well, one positive news from today is that we are going to see info on R1s released s00n. interior, exterior specs and some more detailed videos and may be R1s' will be available at the events. Yay!. Cant wait to see info on R1s.

 

[Revo]

I for one resent being considered “third-party”. Since we have a direct relationship with Rivian (gave them preorder $$$), we are entitled to at least second-party classification.

Nope we are 3rd class citizens and we will get a truck "SooN" by 2023 ??

 

[Vegeta]

"As of October 31, 2021, we had approximately 55,400 R1T and R1S preorders in the United States and Canada from customers who each paid a cancellable and fully refundable deposit of $1,000. Based on our current production forecast, we expect to fill our preorder backlog of approximately 55,400 by the end of 2023. We believe the combination of our deep focus on addressing climate change, building compelling products, and delivering a superior customer experience will enable Rivian to drive adoption and customer loyalty, powering our continued growth."

That's a pretty big jump in preorders since the first filing.

I guess I should order mine today then. Didn’t know the back log was that wild

 

[Ladiver]

Well, one positive news from today is that we are going to see info on R1s released s00n. interior, exterior specs and some more detailed videos and may be R1s' will be available at the events. Yay!. Cant wait to see info on R1s.

I sure hope so. I am really tossed up on T or S. I have two pre-orders, so in a perfect world, it is a R1T LE and a R1S with Max Pack (not announced yet).

 

[evtrail]

Controversial opinion but I’m actually feeling a little better. Explanations. Being in the complete dark and speculating on the big “when” is grueling. I have other pre-orders for other EV brands. Now, it seems that I’ll be able to take a more educated decision between the different brands that will be roughly at the same step in their production process.

 

[CarterGee]

I'm just chiming to say, "Wow, I'm apparently going to be one of the first ~thousand Rivian owners?"

Wow. I'm apparently going to be one of the first ~thousand Rivian owners?

That is both so exciting and horrifying haha my Guide continues to swear my truck is coming by end of November. I keep saying I'm nervous trying to sell my 4Runner privately before then (trade ins suck cash). Either it's going to be a mad dash to the finish line or there's going to be a delay and I'll be truck-less. I'm not sure when I expect an exact delivery date, but I do know that my charger doesn't even have a date. It's not a deal breaker to not have a wall charger for a little while, but, "EEEEEEK," is all I can think. I'm pretty sure it's mostly excitement haha

Test drive this Saturday. Maybe I can get some more details there.

Anyone else in my boat with an EoNovember timeline?

 

[SeaGeo]

I'm just chiming to say, "Wow, I'm apparently going to be one of the first ~thousand Rivian owners?"

Wow. I'm apparently going to be one of the first ~thousand Rivian owners?

That is both so exciting and horrifying haha my Guide continues to swear my truck is coming by end of November. I keep saying I'm nervous trying to sell my 4Runner privately before then (trade ins suck cash). Either it's going to be a mad dash to the finish line or there's going to be a delay and I'll be truck-less. I'm not sure when I expect an exact delivery date, but I do know that my charger doesn't even have a date. It's not a deal breaker to not have a wall charger for a little while, but, "EEEEEEK," is all I can think. I'm pretty sure it's mostly excitement haha

Test drive this Saturday. Maybe I can get some more details there.

Anyone else in my boat with an EoNovember timeline?

Get in the back of the line behind the yet to be finalized October deliveries. ?

Jokes aside, I'm normally of the same mind as you with trade-ins. However, after comparing trade-in values and private party values the latter seems less interesting to deal with then hassle of managing, especially with the reduction in sales tax in my State when trading in. It's also not quite as easy to sale a newer car private party.

 

[CarterGee]

Get in the back of the line behind the yet to be finalized October deliveries. ?

Jokes aside, I'm normally of the same mind as you with trade-ins. However, after comparing trade-in values and private party values the latter seems less interesting to deal with then hassle of managing, especially with the reduction in sales tax in my State when trading in. It's also not quite as easy to sale a newer car private party.

Bahaha to be fair I'm pretty sure we only know of like... 5 October delivery promises. Though if what forum members are saying is true, it sucks to be told a date and to miss it without proactive communication. Frankly, it smells a little fishy to me, but I'm not pointing fingers! ?

Selling privately isn't that scary to me. You just have to be patient and trust your Spidey Sense.

 

[Shzeph]

Anyone else in my boat with an EoNovember timeline?

Me! Spoke to my Guide this morning and she reassured me that I was still on-track for November delivery.

I’ll take it with a grain of salt, but I remain optimistic

 

[SeaGeo]

Me! Spoke to my Guide this morning and she reassured me that I was still on-track for November delivery.

I’ll take it with a grain of salt, but I remain optimistic

Maybe you and Adam and Godfodder will have the same delivery date and can be delivery triplets! Lol

I am curious why they seem to be sitting on that handful for R1Ts in the service center right now.

 

[Shzeph]

My (completely unsubstantiated) guess is that they may be show room/display cars. I seem to recall that the Belltown showroom was cancelled or the permit was pulled or something, so maybe they’re just consolidating everything to one location(?)

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