Ford "PRICE WAR" drives RIVN under $10

[LetsgoRIVN]

It's in the 2024 outlook of the shareholder letter.

"Our full year targets rely on an improvement in order rate driven by our planned go-to-market strategies."

So far so good, Q1 beat estimates !

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[Rivian_Hugh_III]

Short sellers will try to take it down to net cash value. It could also turn into a magnificent short squeeze if RJ can surprise with an EDV deal or announcing R2 for start of 2025 !

I think Rivian has major surprises in store for post-Shutdown. It’s been clear for at least a year that they need to goose interest.

Two ways to do that: Less expensive entry level, more expensive premium level. I expect both, with major profit enhancement in both areas.

At the bottom they’ll strip out some pricey features including air suspension. In the middle they’ll simplify manufacturing with packages instead of a la carte choices. Across the board they’ll offer a winch, running boards, and new premium paint. At the top they’ll offer Quad enduros, exclusive paint, and exclusive options.

I also expect body changes that are noticeable, including the new light bar and headlights of the R2, a streamlined and more visually appealing front end, rear quarter panels that are replaceable without spending $40,000, and the things that have been long desired like a working phone charging pad and maybe 180 degree tailgate.

We can learn from their R2 reveal that they understand the power of over-joying their customers with great options beyond expectations. They’ve known for a long time this is needed in the R1. It’s design was locked in 2018. It’s beyond time to push it to the next level and bring back the lust of their customers.

 

[1T2022]

I continue to put in my $.
Hope Apple to put $1B into Rivian. They got to use their investment in Titan project.

 

[Rivian Head]

This is newbie mistake by comparing P/E ratio without context. Nvidia is growing top line at over 200% with a significant growing segment of Gen AI. Tesla‘s most recent quarter was double digit decline with net profit falling even more.

This is newbie mistake by comparing P/E ratio without context. Nvidia is growing top line at over 200% with a significant growing segment of Gen AI. Tesla‘s most recent quarter was double digit decline with net profit falling even more.

You are making my point. Dark Fx‘s assertion that Tesla is incredibly overpriced compared to Rivian is laughable. Even more laughable to say NVDIA is overpriced. Market is always forward looking. Tesla at this price may be a bargain if you believe that they are in between two growth cycle; FSD, Robotaxi, energy storage. Otherwise it’s way overpriced even at this price just like Rivian. You need to show the Growth Potential. I just don’t see in Rivian.

 

[sphereobject]

But why do you think they need to raise more capital right now? They have about 9B in cash and equivalents on hand, which gets them through the end of 2025 at minimum. Seems likely that conditions for the next raise will be better in 2025, after they've executed a few steps on their path to profitability (Q2/Q3 2024 structural cost reduction, gross profit in Q4 2024, starting volume sales to new RCV customers in 1H 2025).

Do you want to raise capital before or after you receive a going concern letter from your auditor? If your projections are that you are going to run out of cash by date X, what do GAAP and SarBox say about when an auditor must issue a going concern letter to CYA?

 

[sphereobject]

sphereobject is actually making that claim. Follow the breadcrumbs back. He actually launched a completely fabricated narrative where in the present tense Rivian is currently in takeover talks:





He then speculated those takeover talks he speculated were happening right now would use bankruptcy:




When called on the absurdity of his speculation that Rivian is currently negotiating a takeover via bankruptcy, he simply pretended he never said he though Rivian was currently negotiating a takeover through bankruptcy. Then shereobject lifted the goalposts and shifted the date to Q4 2025, never backing down from his theory that Rivian is currently negotiating a takeover using bankruptcy. Which he still doesn't have anything to support a bankruptcy at that point being likely.





But sphereobject could clear it all up as to why he/she was talking about "a pre-pack bankruptcy" either "already" or in "Q4 2025", when in reality Rivian is simply looking at needing to raise capital like every other company does without drama.

Or sphereobject could simply say "my speculation about bankruptcy was wrong, both now and Q4 2025" and clear it all up.

Oy vey this is maximum ok boomer.

The smart money clearly has its own opinion. Today RIVN closed down 95% from its $172.01 all time high.

Fight the tape if you dare!

 

[Nix]

Oy vey this is maximum ok boomer.

The smart money clearly has its own opinion. Today RIVN closed down 95% from its $172.01 all time high.

Fight the tape if you dare!

OK, boomer. Whatever you say, boomer.

Nothing more Maximum Boomer than simply ignoring it when you get caught red-handed fabricating claims about bankruptcy, and shift to ad-homs.

Man up, Boomer. Either you can defend your original blathering that Rivian is currently working on a pre-pack bankruptcy right now, or even in Q4 2025 (instead of simply raising capital at any time in the next year and a half) or you can't.

 

[sphereobject]

OK, boomer. Whatever you say, boomer.

Nothing more Maximum Boomer than simply ignoring it when you get caught red-handed fabricating claims about bankruptcy, and shift to ad-homs.

Man up, Boomer. Either you can defend your original blathering that Rivian is currently working on a pre-pack bankruptcy right now, or even in Q4 2025 (instead of simply raising capital at any time in the next year and a half) or you can't.

Oy vey

 

[Nix]

The R2 is essential to Rivian's strategy. That's why they're going to start building it in Normal and not Georgia. If the R2 is cancelled, it's because Rivian is filing for bankruptcy.

Yes, absolutely the R2 is the strategy. It has always been the strategy. All the bean counters, executives, and board members all knew that the R2 reveal and opening of R2 reservations would cut into R1 revenues and result in cash burn.

Rivian has never been a company designed around just selling R1 variants. They all read the "Tesla (not so) secret plan" before they even IPO'ed. We all did. They all know the history of "Halo" vehicles and what purpose the R1 variants played in the long-term plan for Rivian.

They are moving forward with the R2 in Normal because the numbers work, and like you said, they are going for it in Normal because they see a path forward. Nothing is going to stick for the stock price between now and then until if/when the R2 proves itself, ramps, and builds profits.

This is not any ounce of surprise. This moment in time in RIVN financials has been known and entirely predicted. We literally saw the exact same thing with TSLA between Model S/X and 3/Y launches and ramp-up.

 

[Nix]

Oy vey

Thanks for clearing it up for all of us that you cannot support your prior posts.

 

[saylormd]

Is the XLT trim an off-road trim? If not, you shouldn't be comparing it with the off-road / 20" wheel option on the R1T. The comparable R1T is dual motor, standard+ pack, with 21" wheels at $73K and 315 miles. Thats much more of an apples to apples and 7K under your 80K threshold.

Additionally the XLT is not the correct Lightening to compare with R1T. For example XLT has cloth seats and no sun roof.

The Lariat high trim is somewhat comparable to R1T standard+. These 2 have similar range (320 v 315), leather, sunroof, tires (road), steering wheel and all seats heated, full safety features, black interior. Nether comparator has any off road options included. Prices are a moving target but: Delivered after manufacturer's incentives each was in the low to mid $70k range last week. From there $7500 off RT1 but only if you lease. $7500 off F150 (if you qualify) but only if you buy, half that if you lease.

By the way Ford quotes a lease payment excluding taxes for this comparable trim model about $400/month more than Rivian quotes, which makes no sense. Leasing an R1T seems like the better deal, unless you really need the full size of the Ford.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

Is Ford even selling the Flash yet? I found the 2024 configurator and I don’t see any mention of it. IMO it is a much sweeter proposition for buyers than the XLT or Lariat. The heat pump should be a great performance boost in cold weather.

I’m guessing they held it back a bit while they try to clear 2023 inventory but it’s also seems to work out in their favor that it’ll hit the streets in warmer weather when no one can test the cold weather claims.

EDIT: Just read that the heat pump is included in all 2024 Lightnings.

 

[sphereobject]

Yes, absolute the R2 is the strategy. It has always been the strategy. All the bean counters, executives, and board members all knew that the R2 reveal and opening of R2 reservations would cut into R1 revenues and result in cash burn.

Rivian has never been a company designed around just selling R1 variants. They all read the "Tesla (not so) secret plan" before they even IPO'ed. We all did. They all know the history of "Halo" vehicles and what purpose the R1 variants played in the long-term plan for Rivian.

They are moving forward with the R2 in Normal because the numbers work, and like you said, they are going for it in Normal because they see a path forward. Nothing is going to stick for the stock price between now and then until if/when the R2 proves itself, ramps, and builds profits.

This is not any ounce of surprise. This moment in time in RIVN financials has been known and entirely predicted. We literally saw the exact same thing with TSLA between Model S/X and 3/Y launches and ramp-up.

So why did management blow through $12+ billion in 2022 and 2023, and probably another $6+ billion in 2024 (annualizing the Q4 2023 $1.5 billion loss) to the extent the company now has insufficient liquidity to build the Georgia plant, where the only way the company can be profitable (according to the plan) is to build the R2 at scale at the Georgia plant?

I am not a Tesla fanboy, but Tesla's worst year was about $2 billion in losses while they were building plants to build the 3 at scale. Rivian is nowhere near where Tesla ever was. They're just not reasonably comparable.

Another big difference is that even the S and X were COGS profitable, where the R1T/R1S are like -50%~ margin products.

Tesla had COGS profitability and was losing money on the way to building plants to build 3s and Ys at scale. Rivian is COGS underwater, badly, and recently delayed its plans to build its plant to build a profitable vehicle at scale. Things are not looking good!

 

[Nix]

So why did management blow through $12+ billion in 2022 and 2023, and probably another $6+ billion in 2024 (annualizing the Q4 2023 $1.5 billion loss) to the extent the company now has insufficient liquidity to build the Georgia plant, where the only way the company can be profitable (according to the plan) is to build the R2 at scale at the Georgia plant?

I am not a Tesla fanboy, but Tesla's worst year was about $2 billion in losses while they were building plants to build the 3 at scale. Rivian is nowhere near where Tesla ever was. They're just not reasonably comparable.

Another big difference is that even the S and X were COGS profitable, where the R1T/R1S are like -50%~ margin products.

Tesla had COGS profitability and was losing money on the way to building plants to build 3s and Ys at scale. Rivian is COGS underwater, badly, and recently delayed its plans to build its plant to build a profitable vehicle at scale. Things are not looking good!

Still waiting for you to either support your baseless supposition that Rivian is currently negotiating a bankruptcy and takeover, or simply admit your statements were incorrect.

There is no point in me engaging with someone intellectually dishonest.

 

[sphereobject]

Still waiting for you to either support your baseless supposition that Rivian is currently negotiating a bankruptcy and takeover, or simply admit your statements were incorrect.

There is no point in me engaging with someone intellectually dishonest.

What I said was that it makes no sense that RIVN has not raised capital, and that the only reasonable explanation for why they haven't raised capital, coincident with delaying the Georgia plant (which is the only path to profitability), is that it is now negotiating a takeover. Does anyone disagree? If they were planning to raise capital (which they need to do if it is not doing a takeover), would you have prefered they raise more capital at $50 per share or $8 per share, where it trades at today?

Regarding a takeover, I said that an optimal takeover for a buyer would be a prepack bankruptcy. Would anyone disagree? That's almost always the best way to takeover in this kind of situation.

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