R1T $69,000 starting price - opinions

[scottf200]

I do think the pricing for the Cybertruck is going to be different than what Tesla did for the cars. Going with the cheaper models first and releasing the expensive model 1 year later I am assuming waiting for battery tech to catch up. I do feel battery investor day for Tesla will bring some big news

Quote: Truck production, according to Tesla’s website, is slated for late 2021.
2021: The base version of the Cybertruck, with a single motor, will start at $39,900, good for 250 miles of range, a tow rating of 7,500 pounds, and a 0- to 60-mph time of 6.5 seconds.
2021: A dual-motor $49,000 version can tow 10,000 pounds and reach 60 mph in 4.5 seconds, with 300 miles of range.
2022: And the top-of-the-line variant [tri-motor], starting at $69,900, will go more than 500 miles between charges, hit 60 mph in under 3 seconds, tow up to 14,000 pounds, and start production in late 2022.
Via: https://www.wired.com/story/electric-tesla-pickup-truck-announcement-specs-cost-photos/

Reveal:

Wiki: (a bit more readable)

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[Hmp10]

I don't dispute what Tesla claims will be the lowest price. I was just pointing out that Tesla never met its announced lowest price for the Model 3 and never will. And it was not an insignificant miss; it is a 13% miss. Whether it was introduced before or after the dual-motor and long-range models is irrelevant to the issue of never meeting the announced price. If you apply the same miss to the Cybertruck, no version will ever cost less than $45,000 . . . and the tax credit will be gone before it hits production.

I still think the Cybertruck reservation numbers were spiked by the $100 reservation fee. When Tesla thinks a model is going to sell well it charges a much larger reservation fee, and when a model is expected to flag the reservation fee is much lower.

Right now, the reservation fee for the much-anticipated Model Y is $2,500 . . . and $50,000 for a Roadster, which is aimed at the price-no-object crowd. So Tesla is certainly not shy about high reservation fees for early pre-orders. The Model S and Model X, whose sales are sagging, have a $100 reservation fee.

I suspect that if the Cybertruck had been introduced with a $2,500 reservation fee, we'd be seeing very different pre-order numbers.

 

[eltrkadvntrr]

The cyberpuke might have received a ton of pre-orders. But Tesla will remain tight lipped as to how many of those pre-orders are pulled back and for what reasons. I would assume Ford hasnt announced how many pre-orders they received because it is far less than what Tesla has. But I digress. I wouldnt get hung up on the pre-orders, it really doesnt mean a whole lot. Just sayin.

 

[Joel]

I don't dispute what Tesla claims will be the lowest price. I was just pointing out that Tesla never met its announced lowest price for the Model 3 and never will. And it was not an insignificant miss; it is a 13% miss. Whether it was introduced before or after the dual-motor and long-range models is irrelevant to the issue of never meeting the announced price. If you apply the same miss to the Cybertruck, no version will ever cost less than $45,000 . . . and the tax credit will be gone before it hits production.

I still think the Cybertruck reservation numbers were spiked by the $100 reservation fee. When Tesla thinks a model is going to sell well it charges a much larger reservation fee, and when a model is expected to flag the reservation fee is much lower.

Right now, the reservation fee for the much-anticipated Model Y is $2,500 . . . and $50,000 for a Roadster, which is aimed at the price-no-object crowd. So Tesla is certainly not shy about high reservation fees for early pre-orders. The Model S and Model X, whose sales are sagging, have a $100 reservation fee.

I suspect that if the Cybertruck had been introduced with a $2,500 reservation fee, we'd be seeing very different pre-order numbers.

I think the base price for the model 3 will hit 35k and possibly below in the next 18 months. If they don't, I believe with the battery tech they have acquired will gain even more range instead.

I also think the reservation fee for the Model Y was more significant for two reasons. 1. They know it's going to sell well as CUV is a big market, and 2. Great way to get a loan to build the production line. I agree with the 50k for the roadster the price is no object crowd but again the free loan. I think the Model S and X are sagging for other reasons, with the biggest being a refresh coming as well as it needs an upgrade to the interiors to compete with cars in that price range.

 

[Hmp10]

I agree with your second paragraph.

However, for buyers who want a Model 3 but simply cannot handle the extra $5K in price, added range for the higher price doesn't put the car any more in their reach.

 

[Joel]

I agree with your second paragraph.

However, for buyers who want a Model 3 but simply cannot handle the extra $5K in price, added range for the higher price doesn't put the car any more in their reach.

I think we will see the Model 3 drop in price as there is more competition. Look at the Model S they had about a 10k price cut in March. Like the Cybertruck I think we will get some interesting news at the Next Investor Battery Day. Especially with EM stating there won't be any new models announced for awhile.

I think we will see a 10yr/1,000,000 mile warranty coming by the time Cybertruck is released.

 

[scottf200]

... I was just pointing out that Tesla never met its announced lowest price for the Model 3 and never will. And it was not an insignificant miss; it is a 13% miss...

I follow Tesla pretty closely. You are NOT correct. It did hit the $35,000 price. It just was not available in the on-line ordering. You had to call in an off the menu order. They had SR and SR+. There were a number of articles on this in the news and on the Tesla forum as well as TMC. The official Tesla.COM site had it to. Here: https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now

We are incredibly excited to announce that the standard Model 3, with 220 miles of range, a top speed of 130 mph and 0-60 mph acceleration of 5.6 seconds is now available at $35,000! Although lower in cost, it is built to achieve the same perfect 5-star safety rating as the longer-ranged version, which has the lowest probability of injury of any car ever tested by the U.S. Government.

In addition, we are introducing the Model 3 Standard Range Plus, which offers 240 miles of range, a top speed of 140 mph, 0-60 mph acceleration of just 5.3 seconds and most premium interior features at $37,000 before incentives. For 6% more money, you get 9% more range, more power, and an upgraded interior.

_______________________ _______________ ________________

The cyberpuke might have received a ton of pre-orders. But Tesla will remain tight lipped as to how many of those pre-orders are pulled back and for what reasons. I would assume Ford hasnt announced how many pre-orders they received because it is far less than what Tesla has. But I digress. I wouldnt get hung up on the pre-orders, it really doesnt mean a whole lot. Just sayin.

The Mach-E had less than 15K orders. I've seen a couple different numbers. Here was one:

Tesla has the unique ability to draw support and money from fans before a vehicle goes into production. Ford, by contrast, is currently taking $500, refundable “reservations” for its recently unveiled Mustang Mach E. As of last week, only 14,000 people had signed up.

via: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/elo...uck-orders-say-little-about-actual-sales.html

 

[Hmp10]

I follow Tesla pretty closely. You are NOT correct. It did hit the $35,000 price. It just was not available in the on-line ordering.

The article you linked announced this:

We are incredibly excited to announce that the standard Model 3, with 220 miles of range, a top speed of 130 mph and 0-60 mph acceleration of 5.6 seconds is now available at $35,000! . . . To achieve these prices while remaining financially sustainable, Tesla is shifting sales worldwide to online only [my emphasis]."

So you could order a Model 3 for $35,000, but only because of shifting to online orders exclusively. Yet the car was not available online but could only be purchased with a telephone call?

Did you also have to know the double secret password to get one?

I have followed Tesla since before I bought my Model S in 2015, and this is not the first time I've seen misleading gibberish on the Tesla website or in one of its constant hype-filled announcements.

This grand announcement was issued in February 2019. By April, the whole idea of a $35,000 Model 3 was dead. As The Verge reported that month (https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/12/18307583/tesla-original-plan-tesla-model-3-base-model):

"Tesla never shipped any of those $35,000 Model 3s, though [my emphasis]. Customers who placed orders saw their delivery windows get delayed by weeks or months, and some reported that Tesla salespeople tried to up-sell them to the Standard Range Plus in the meantime."

As I said, Tesla never has sold a Model 3 to anyone for $35,000. And I suspect they never will.

 

[scottf200]

As I said, Tesla never has sold a Model 3 to anyone for $35,000. And I suspect they never will.

As I said they were for sale and you said they were not. There are various reddit threads and TMC threads where people bought the $35,000 Model 3. You are incorrect.

One example (from 6 months ago):

My $35k Tesla Model 3 SR base model has arrived and its a steal !

Ordered a $35k base SR model 3 and it showed up with in 1 week. Having owned many cars this is definitely the nicest "base model" I've ever seen. Since Tesla decided not to ever make a base model this looks and feels VERY premium: Leather(fake but looks real) Nav, glass roof, power seats, wood trim, etc. This is literally the SR+ with some software and battery features missing, otherwise if I never told you what the car was you would have no clue as the car looks identical to every other Model 3 (less the rims). People that have seen the car can't believe how cheap it is. I actually set out to buy a fully loaded Prius Plug in, stumbled across the Model 3 after searching for EV cars and couldn't be more surprised. This is the ultimate "poor mans Tesla, but everyone thinks you're rich" car. Absolute steal at $35k (PLUS Tax credit)

 

[Hmp10]

There's something fishy about that post. The base Model 3 was offered only with manually-operated cloth seats, not power-operated faux leather seats. Also, the claim that he got the car a week after he ordered it is suspect. At the end of March 2019 even the Tesla website was posting a 6-8 weeks wait time for a base Model 3 . . . and discussion boards were full of complaints from people encountering delays beyond that with attempts at upselling by Tesla personnel. There was a huge order backlog for the $35,000 Model 3. To go from Tesla itself warning of a 6-8 weeks wait in March to delivery within a week just a couple of months later, as this poster claims, strains credulity.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a26948744/tesla-model-3-deliveries-delays/

The above article was published March 26. On May 14, "Car and Driver" published an update about all the twists and turns that were still keeping base Model 3's from winding up in the hands of customers. That article said:

"This calls into question whether Tesla actually built or delivered any of the originally announced Standard Range Model 3 vehicles to customers. We're not sure if these stripped-out vehicles with cloth interiors ever existed in the first place, as Tesla says the special-order Standard Range cars will now be Standard Range Plus cars with a software-limited battery that provides a bit less range."

 

[scottf200]

There's something fishy about that post. The base Model 3 was offered only with manually-operated cloth seats, not power-operated faux leather seats. Also, the claim that he got the car a week after he ordered it is suspect.

Tesla ended up not changing some of the options because it was simpler/cheaper for them to just include them. Several threads about that. Sometimes common cars are made without having orders for them yet. This has happened with other variations and people got deliveries quickly just because they were ordering at the right time/place. As I've said I've seen several threads on reddit and TMC about people getting their base TM3. I've added you to my ignore list based on your unwillingness to be reasonsable to admit you are incorrect.

 

[Hmp10]

So, Scott200's post made me dig further into a the convoluted saga of the $35,000 Tesla. I stand corrected. Here's what I found:

1. Tesla announces a $35,000 electric car for the masses in April 2016. Production of the Model 3 begins in July 2017, but no cars are offered at $35,000.

2. Almost three years later, in February 2019, Tesla finally says production of the$35,000 Model 3 will begin and that it can be ordered online or by phone. (It is available only in black at that price.)

3. By April, before any $35,000 cars are delivered, the ability to order online is removed. They can now be ordered only by phone or in stores, where aspiring buyers report aggressive efforts to upsell them to a more expensive vehicle. Two months after Tesla says the $35,000 cars are available the car press can still find no confirmation that any have made it into the hands of customers.

4. In early April 2019 the original plan to build a high volume of "stripper" cars with cloth seats, manual seat operation, and fewer options is abandoned without any actually having been produced. Instead, Tesla decides to sell the next level up as the $35,000 car, but with battery range electronically limited, the seat heater switch disabled, and certain navigation and autopilot features disabled. Reports are that Musk decided that producing the mass consumer car at volume would actually ruin the company, so a few of the more expensive models are electronically limited -- and available not online but only through actual human contact with a salesperson -- in order for Musk to claim that he fulfilled his promise of a $35,000 car.

5. Six months later, by August 2019, the special-order-only cheapest Model 3 costs $36,200. Tesla declines to disclose the number of $35,000 cars it actually delivered.

I wonder how similar will be the saga of the $39,900 Cybertruck.

 

[Joel]

So, Scott200's post made me dig further into a the convoluted saga of the $35,000 Tesla. I stand corrected. Here's what I found:

1. Tesla announces a $35,000 electric car for the masses in April 2016. Production of the Model 3 begins in July 2017, but no cars are offered at $35,000.

2. Almost three years later, in February 2019, Tesla finally says production of the$35,000 Model 3 will begin and that it can be ordered online or by phone. (It is available only in black at that price.)

3. By April, before any $35,000 cars are delivered, the ability to order online is removed. They can now be ordered only by phone or in stores, where aspiring buyers report aggressive efforts to upsell them to a more expensive vehicle. Two months after Tesla says the $35,000 cars are available the car press can still find no confirmation that any have made it into the hands of customers.

4. In early April 2019 the original plan to build a high volume of "stripper" cars with cloth seats, manual seat operation, and fewer options is abandoned without any actually having been produced. Instead, Tesla decides to sell the next level up as the $35,000 car, but with battery range electronically limited, the seat heater switch disabled, and certain navigation and autopilot features disabled. Reports are that Musk decided that producing the mass consumer car at volume would actually ruin the company, so a few of the more expensive models are electronically limited -- and available not online but only through actual human contact with a salesperson -- in order for Musk to claim that he fulfilled his promise of a $35,000 car.

5. Six months later, by August 2019, the special-order-only cheapest Model 3 costs $36,200. Tesla declines to disclose the number of $35,000 cars it actually delivered.

I wonder how similar will be the saga of the $39,900 Cybertruck.

I think because the price is higher it will be possible. I also think because there is not paint that is a huge cost savings. I also think the base model won’t have the vault. But then again we are talking two year and another battery tech released.

 

[Feathermerchant]

Remember that Rivian has a $7500 competitive advantage over Tesla. That somewhat compensates for the risk taken by the buyer because Rivian has not produced anything yet and they have no equivalent charging network in place..

 

[DucRider]

5. Six months later, by August 2019, the special-order-only cheapest Model 3 costs $36,200. Tesla declines to disclose the number of $35,000 cars it actually delivered.

The $35K and $36,200 vehicle are one and the same. The $35K price does not include the $1,200 destination charge added to all Tesla models/trims.

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