What will we learn on Thursday? A Predictions Thread...

[Trandall]

I too watched a recent podcast where they stated concerns regarding Rivians rollout. Now I'm worried about delays. I'm fine not knowing every detail but the major things noted by Kanundrum and others are alarming, namely that nobody has been contacted to lock in final purchase. While I don't think Rivian owes us every detail before purchase time I do think they owe us being upfront if they have reason to believe delays are likely. They should not be sitting on that type of info as it materially effects financial decisions customers are making. If a delay is unavoidable and they communicate that promptly would be disappointing, if they cover it up till the last month that is deceptive IMO and unacceptable.
Also, a big thanks to the unnamed crew of the unnamed podcast I enjoy watching, lets hope we don't all get Chilewich'd.

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[Rivianmd]

Oops. I guess I should have left the unnamed, unnamed

 

[electruck]

Up until the Thursday cycle, Friday was the news day...so maybe we are back at a Friday cycle...

There has never been "a cycle"... merely coincidence and now everybody expects it to continue and is disappointed that it's not really a thing.

 

[electruck]

But, even though I have little interest in Lucid, I have a better idea about their production intent version literally from their tech info they've released and recent videos with people driving or being driven in the car.

Perhaps your perception of what you know about Lucid and Rivian is skewed by your level of interest in each. Being more interested in Rivian, you're naturally more cognizant of the things you don't yet know.

 

[Friscorays]

Bummer about March 1, 2022.

 

[electruck]

I know there is a lot of disappointment that Rivian isn't sharing more but let's be careful not to get carried away with the speculation here (or elsewhere online). We all signed on knowing there is an element of risk with a startup company. Covid and supply chain issues are pretty much impacting everyone. And just because Rivian says to expect something in a given month, doesn't mean that it will happen on the 1st or even in the first week. When they say R1T deliveries will begin in June, there should be expectation of nothing more than a few trucks rolling out the last week of June. A lot of the disappointment I see around here is because we build things up in our heads to be more than has actually been promised. Didn't get a call from your Guide on May 1? OMG... tragedy. Reality is, they haven't quite finished up training. There is still plenty of time left in May for the Guides to reach out to those lucky few who will take delivery in June. It's fine to express frustration but let's try to avoid doomsday speculation - not everyone reading these forums and watching podcasts can clearly differentiate fact from paranoia.

 

[jimcgov3]

There has never been "a cycle"... merely coincidence and now everybody expects it to continue and is disappointed that it's not really a thing.

Valid

 

[Rivianmd]

Electruck, I appreciate the calm and optimism...I disagree though that it was unreasonable to expect a few hundred to thousand or so vehicles to be produced in June. Maybe they will hit that mark, but everything at this point on May 7th points to only a trickle by the end of June at best. If that was your expectation all along you really nailed setting appropriate expectations for yourself. That to me and many others is disappointing.

 

[Sean]

This company operated in stealth mode for 10 years. I've been a pre-order holder as many of you have for some time now and only found this form because of the lack of information being provided by Rivian. They've been sharing info at a pace that they never have as we get closer but (I tell myself this) they don't have any good reasons to share early. There are legitimate worries but keep in mind that there's no reason for them to look like a company delivering 100,000 cars a month when in reality, if they get 1,000 out in June we'd all probably think that's good news.

 

[eggpaul]

I don't think many expected thousands to be produced in June. I think people are just tired of these videos teasing them. We aren't spending $1000 on a new phone that is being revealed, but $80,000 on a new vehicle. If they know the product that will be built very soon, they can at least tell us more about it. The video of the R1T in Austin for example a few weeks ago. The guy taking the video wasn't allowed to get close. Why so confidential? It's frustrating.

 

[skyote]

I agree with the practical assessment of @electruck . My perpetual issue with Rivian is that they could manage expectations & communicate so much better. I will totally understand if they have delays or lower volumes, but don't let it be a surprise...set reasonable expectations.

Why the heck will they not share details that have been finalized? I feel like much of the information we're awaiting could have been shared LONG ago.

Rivian might be delaying details that could be perceived negatively, but I think that's a bad strategy. I believe ownership & transparency always leads to the healthiest customer relationships.

 

[Sean]

I don't think many expected thousands to be produced in June. I think people are just tired of these videos teasing them. We aren't spending $1000 on a new phone that is being revealed, but $80,000 on a new vehicle. If they know the product that will be built very soon, they can at least tell us more about it. The video of the R1T in Austin for example a few weeks ago. The guy taking the video wasn't allowed to get close. Why so confidential? It's frustrating.

It is frustrating but another video doesn't mean anything other than that. There are legitimate worries about if they can scale, deliver to commitments, etc. but I'm not getting worked up about the fact that they haven't done a walkthrough yet. I'd love it, but it doesn't matter yet.

I think Rivian is really in the mindset of "put it out there" and a great product will sell itself. I'm in the transparency camp but based on everything they've done so far, I don't see that suddenly changing.

 

[wdlikatruck]

I think current frustration is well-deserved. Posting official communications with statements such as "more to come next week" are irresponsible in the context of sophisticated customers looking to spend $80k on a new product. Such vagueness (they couldn't say which day next week?) shows fundamental disrespect or a complete state of unpreparedness (we really just don't when we'll have it together), or both.

 

[MReda]

I agree with the practical assessment of @electruck . My perpetual issue with Rivian is that they could manage expectations & communicate so much better. I will totally understand if they have delays or lower volumes, but don't let it be a surprise...set reasonable expectations.

Why the heck will they not share details that have been finalized? I feel like much of the information we're awaiting could have been shared LONG ago.

Rivian might be delaying details that could be perceived negatively, but I think that's a bad strategy. I believe ownership & transparency always leads to the healthiest customer relationships.

My gripe, at this point, is that I may not know when I'm getting my vehicle until a relatively short amount of time before I receive it, and there is a multi-month swing when that could be, based solely on pre-order number. Start adding in location and configuration, and who knows what will happen...

I'd be perfectly happy if they just came out and said I should expect my vehicle in Q4 (well, maybe not perfectly happy...), but leaving it open ended, where, if my configuration and location and pre-order number are stacked against me, I may not hear until late November about a December delivery, is not very satisfying.

 

[DucRider]

People are overlooking the massive job it is to expand and hire as quickly as they are. They have 1500+ job openings posted right now.

If in fact they do announce a delay at this point, or deliver only a handful of Ts in June, it will really undermine confidence.

I don't know why people expect more than a few dozen (or maybe a hundred or so) deliveries in June. I would be surprised if it was much more than that. No reason to build a bunch of them and then not deliver them to their anxiously awaiting new owners.

My gripe, at this point, is that I may not know when I'm getting my vehicle until a relatively short amount of time before I receive it, and there is a multi-month swing when that could be, based solely on pre-order number. Start adding in location and configuration, and who knows what will happen...

I don't think Rivian knows what the conversion rate and desired configurations will be. Plus they are still trying to hire both delivery and service people to cover most markets. They appear to want more than warm bodies to fill positions and are looking for a cultural fit and values than align with the company goals. Not only do they have to find the workers, but also build the HR infrastructure and develop effective communication channels. In many ways that is more critical to the success of the company (long term) than much of what people are obsessing over (the size of the key fob comes to mind).

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