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Rivian vs. Cybertruck

Joel

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For the looks and all the comments all over the internet. Tesla managed to receive 148,000 reservations in 48 hours. That’s currently about half the model 3 initial pre-orders.
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Hmp10

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My brother had to put down $1,000 to reserve his Model 3. The Cybertruck deposit is $100. This is another one of Musk's marketing moves.

By the time Tesla gets its two-motor pickup truck to market in late 2022 Rivian will have had its 4-motor truck on the market for two years and Ford may well have its EV pickup in production.

This abundance of reservations is a long, long way from convincing me that anything close to 150,000 Cybertrucks will be plying our highways and byways any time soon.
 

Joel

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My brother had to put down $1,000 to reserve his Model 3. The Cybertruck deposit is $100. This is another one of Musk's marketing moves.

By the time Tesla gets its two-motor pickup truck to market in late 2022 Rivian will have had its 4-motor truck on the market for two years and Ford may well have its EV pickup in production.

This abundance of reservations is a long, long way from convincing me that anything close to 150,000 Cybertrucks will be plying our highways and byways any time soon.
it will be interesting to see what ends up happening in the long run. But I have a feeling that the number will go up from here. I think people know more or less know what they are going to get from Tesla and the super charger network.

To me it’s pretty amazing that in 8 weeks time they were able to throw together the Mars Rover aka the Cybertruck. In addition let people go for a ride in it. I understand Rivian is very methodical and working to not make as many mistakes as Tesla. But at least Tesla was willing to let people ride in it.
 

jimcgov3

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I love what Tesla is coming out with minus the looks...and besides those looks, the other bummer for me is that fact that because Rivian came out first with specs and base price, all anybody has to do after them is meet or beat spec and price-wise and wham, you have huge chunk of the market. Granted they were already going to get a large chunk simply because they are Tesla...but nonetheless, 146,000 reservations in 48 hours. That is no joke. I am curious to see what Rivian does next. Some will have a hard time spending $30,000 more for a bigger, higher range, better spec'd, FSD truck and just out of pure financial necessity switch to Tesla as I am sure some already have.

Sometimes when you play with the big boys you get knocked around. I have no doubt that Rivian will get up, dust themselves off, and continue business as usual, but on the flip side, I feel that they need to step up their game. IMO, they have not done enough marketing to get their name out there and the few that do know about Rivian, can't pronounce Rivian correctly. 7/10 or higher know Tesla. Ride alongs, options lists, and all the colors would be a good start. I would hope that Rivian is evaluating their pricing of options and batteries so I don't expect that to take place. They will definitely need to rethink their pricing structure over and above the base model for $69,000 in order to stay relevant. If they don't, I expect RIvian will lose more reservation holders.

I am still getting my R1T. I am as excited about it as I was when I first saw it in person at the NYIAS. I can't wait to see what unfolds for us and Rivian over the next couple of months. The event in San Francisco is the next reservation holder-only event and next chance at seeing the truck, unless Fully Charged Live in Austin happens first...maybe now we will get to ride along this time. They do have an extra truck now...

My little brother made his reservation on the CT that evening. He is #46,xxx. I don't remember the exact number. It will be sweet to see them side-by-side or riding around together and what reactions we get from people driving around town. They will be great!

I do love these times that we live in.
 

Mr_funnypuns

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[
146,000 reservations in 48 hours. That is no joke.
146k $100 refundable reservations is no joke

there are other no joke stats.

Neither are 10.000 $1000 reservations from amazon are a joke.

Nor are the unquantified preorders from rivian R1T

nor is the dip in Tesla’s stock that followed the reveal of the CT.

beat spec and price-wise and wham, you have huge chunk of the market.
I think the price point is indeed driving Tesla reservation numbers. But that’s not all there is to it. Rivian will beat Tesla to market by two years. That drives sales too.

Quality drives sales. If you don’t meet customer expectations, you by definition are low quality. Thus is why market research and Voice of the customer is important.

Then there’s service. Tesla makes a high quality vehicle that needs little service but the anecdotal evidence abounds regarding a nontrivial number of poor user experiences.

Then there’s features trim and aesthetics.

price can drive preorders. But it can’t win long term. A long term win is based on value.

500 miles for $70k in 2022 might be a win.
400 miles at $85k in 2020 might be a win.

It depends on what customers value more. As a customer I value the Rivian higher than the Tesla.

I’d expect that rivian will spend two years scaling their production and reducing costs. And be in a good place to compete with Tesla on price in 2022... if they need to.

I’d also expect that two years from now the price of Li batteries will be at least 33% less than they are now, and there will be more competition in the EV market.

Rivian isn’t leaking information. I think the reason they aren’t trumpeting preorder numbers is that They didn’t want Tesla to take them seriously until it was too late to beat rivian to market. By all appearances that strategy looks to have been successful.

Tesla has enjoyed a leading role without real competition for a long time. It will be telling to see how Tesla faces this point in history. Good companies evolve when faced with Disrupters.

I’m keeping my RT1 order.
 
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Hmp10

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Remember that Tesla is so far only going head-to-head with Rivian on the pickup truck (and, as noted above, one to two years later at that). Rivian is also launching an SUV that has no Tesla equivalent. Tesla calls its Model X an SUV, but the two vehicles are very distant cousins in the category, at best. (The Model X doesn't even have the cargo capacity of the Model S sedan. And yes, the Model X has 3-row seating, but so do minivans.)

Price might force a lot of buyers to opt for the Tesla Cybertruck over the R1T, but many of those buyers were not going to be able to buy a Rivian, anyway. As Mercedes, BMW, and Audi proved when Lexus (and now Hyundai) hit the market with cars at tens of thousands dollars less in the same categories, the high-price segments have plenty of buyers to keep the Germans pumping out premium-priced cars by the millions. The more cars Lexus and Hyundai sell, the more new factories Mercedes and BMW build and the more new models they launch.

Tesla might tempt some buyers away from Rivian, but I have a feeling Rivian is going to be manufacturing at full capacity for a very long time.

I also have a feeling that the typical Cybertruck buyer is not someone who would buy it instead of a Ford F-150, but would buy it instead of a Hummer -- another vehicle where visual posing trumps utility in terms of buyer motivation.
 

Mr_funnypuns

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Hummer -- another vehicle where visual posing trumps utility in terms of buyer motivation.
well said. Nailed it.
 

jimcgov3

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@Mr_funnypuns, all valid points but you are talking rationally. There are a ton of irrational people who plunked down the money and will buy a crap sandwich if it had the Tesla "T" on it. Or they will buy it simply because of the price and no other qualitative reason...And I will DEFINITELY be keeping my reservation. I am ready to hurry up and wait for my fully-spec'd out R1T.

I’m keeping my RT1 order.
Are you a Tesla spy? Should you be trusted? It is the R1T, not RT1. ;)o_O
 

Mr_funnypuns

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@Mr_funnypuns, all valid points but you are talking rationally. There are a ton of irrational people who plunked down the money and will buy a crap sandwich if it had the Tesla "T" on it. Or they will buy it simply because of the price and no other qualitative reason...And I will DEFINITELY be keeping my reservation. I am ready to hurry up and wait for my fully-spec'd out R1T.



Are you a Tesla spy? Should you be trusted? It is the R1T, not RT1. ;)o_O
Not a Tesla spy. Don’t like Tesla’s engineering process or what it does to people (glass door et Al). Don’t like his over emotional pt-Barnum style publicity. don't like premature rollout of features ( summon) without adequate risk assessment and mitigation.

Won’t consider a Tesla until it changes its corporate philosophy to something more sustainable. And will drop Rivian if I see signs of any similar methods being employed.

you are right: R1T Just a lesdyxic moment.
 

DucRider

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Tesla has a history of announcing a vehicle long before it is ready (think Model 3), at least in part to delay purchasing decisions. It kind of tweaked them that Chevy was able to rush the Bolt to market at the price point and range they were planning for the Model 3, and touting a $35K Tesla (that only sort of materialized) probably impacted Bolt sales.

By the time the Cybertruck actually starts shipping in the sub $40K version, Rivian could very well be bringing their lower spec (2 motor, shorter wheelbase) versions to market. Tesla has yet to hit a release date, and I doubt that the truck will be any different. If the Model Y is going to outsell the Model 3 as they state, I can't see them getting that much additional manufacturing capability up and running at a scale to do both the Y and Cyber.

I don't think Tesla wanted to make a mass market pick-up any more that Rivian wanted to target the construction worker with the R1T. The Cybertruck specs/pricing will force manufacturer's like Ford/GM/Toyota that bring a conventional pickup to consider those specs in relationship to their offerings.
 

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ajdelange

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I still don’t see the actual Battery capacity published.
We can wag that. It's going to require 250 - 350 Wh/mi. With a range of 500 miles that translates into a battery pack size between 125 and 175 kWh. No real surprise there.

That’s going to factor into tow range.
Not really. If it has 500 mi nominal (EPA) range its range with a trailer will be about 250 miles.
.
 

Joel

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We can wag that. It's going to require 250 - 350 Wh/mi. With a range of 500 miles that translates into a battery pack size between 125 and 175 kWh. No real surprise there.

Not really. If it has 500 mi nominal (EPA) range its range with a trailer will be about 250 miles.
.
I thought I had read a double stack 100.
 

ajdelange

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The numbers I gave, and let me re-emphasize that they are WAGs, would be discharge capacities. The charge capacities would be higher - quite possibly as much as 200 kWh. Or the consumption might be more than 350 Wh/mi. 200 kWh is not at all an unreasonable guess.
 

azjohnny

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I saw a recent video on YT with a designer using a cad program comparing Tesla's design to a typical truck with a frame/body and there is a big difference. The floor is a lot lower, giving a lot more cabin room than what you would think by looking from the outside. I have a reservation for a Tri motor debating on whether to buy FSD or not
 

Chalsean

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@Mr_funnypuns, all valid points but you are talking rationally. There are a ton of irrational people who plunked down the money and will buy a crap sandwich if it had the Tesla "T" on it. Or they will buy it simply because of the price and no other qualitative reason...And I will DEFINITELY be keeping my reservation. I am ready to hurry up and wait for my fully-spec'd out R1T.
I agree with everything said, but gotta be honest.. I don't feel totally rational buying a $70k+ truck from a company brand new, not done a test drive, no idea how/where to fix it, no idea on how well it keeps its value, etc. But I'm going to anyway because for some odd reason I trust Rivian. Their approach seems more professional to me. Tesla goes all mad-hatter with their designs but good lord their production line has to be a mess across so many vehicles that don't share skateboards. QA has to be a nightmare.
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