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Realistic Delivery Schedule?

jds3266

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Just put down my deposit for an R1S the other day. Everything I'm reading online says that production will start in 2020, but will that be dedicated only to the R1T or split between the two? What should I be preparing myself for realistic expectations?
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EyeOnRivian

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Unless Rivian has changed what they include in the pre-order confirmation email, it indicates the following:

"Production will begin in 2020. Fully equipped vehicles with the highest performance level and largest battery pack will enter production first. Our 180 kWh and 135 kWh packs will be available at launch with the 105 kWh to follow in 2021."

In addition, I've heard Brian Gase, Rivian's chief engineer of special projects, mention more than once in videos say the same thing but be more specific by saying explicitly the R1T *and* the R1S with highest performance level and largest battery pack yada yada yada.

Now, what are my personal expectations? Given the enormity of a first time company to manufacture a vehicle en masse, talk of battery shortages, etc., probably not until (early?) 2021. But that's just a WAG, I certainly hope sooner than that.
 
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skyote

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I hope they under promise & over deliver, that seems to be a recurring theme and part of their culture.

We'll see, and I'm curious to see when & how many test drive vehicles they produce.
 

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I'm anticipating a Spring 2021 delivery with a Day 1 reservation, but that is just a guess. I would be pleasantly surprised if it arrives sooner.
 

skyote

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I'm expecting 2021 for mine, especially because I don't know where I stand in the preorder queue (late December reservation). And always best to temper expectations & hope for better.
 

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JeffOutWest

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I'm thinking they will get out some reasonable volumes in mid to late 2020. This is a company that doesn't overpromise, they are executing well, and I expect they will do well here.
 

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So I’m about 40,000, at least according to my login number. I did spec a launch edition, so I don’t know if I will get the car in 2021 or the beginning of 2022. Do you think they’ll be able to deliver all the launch editions before the end of 2021? The only reason I ask is because I have a Ford Mustang Mach E GT reserved as well.
 

ElectricTrucking

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So I’m about 40,000, at least according to my login number. I did spec a launch edition, so I don’t know if I will get the car in 2021 or the beginning of 2022. Do you think they’ll be able to deliver all the launch editions before the end of 2021? The only reason I ask is because I have a Ford Mustang Mach E GT reserved as well.
I think 10000 R1T’s in 2021 will be a Stretch.
 

Rhidan

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So I’m about 40,000, at least according to my login number. I did spec a launch edition, so I don’t know if I will get the car in 2021 or the beginning of 2022. Do you think they’ll be able to deliver all the launch editions before the end of 2021? The only reason I ask is because I have a Ford Mustang Mach E GT reserved as well.
I have a similar number in line. I don’t think we know at this point. But the facts that (1) the LE is “sold out,” and (2) non-LE vehicles are supposed to be delivered starting in January 2022 suggests to me that they plan to deliver all the LE versions by the end of 2021.
 

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They've said they plan to deliver all of the LE vehicles in 2021, so it's really a question of what goes wrong and how well they recover from it.
 

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St Bernard

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Only 60% of the people, who placed a reservation for the LE R1S, had a deposit dated before Sept 10,2020. So 40% of the Reservations were people placing deposits between 9/10/20 and 11/22/20. This info comes from the other RIVIAN Forum. It looks like between cancellations and people undecided that over 50% of the Deposit holders decided to hold off for now. I don’t have the info for the R1T. I believe they will only make 4500 LE R1S. That would be an average of 900 Vehicles per month. We will find out the real numbers when they report sales in 2021.
 

skyote

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Only 60% of the people, who placed a reservation for the LE R1S, had a deposit dated before Sept 10,2020. So 40% of the Reservations were people placing deposits between 9/10/20 and 11/22/20. This info comes from the other RIVIAN Forum. It looks like between cancellations and people undecided that over 50% of the Deposit holders decided to hold off for now. I don’t have the info for the R1T. I believe they will only make 4500 LE R1S. That would be an average of 900 Vehicles per month. We will find out the real numbers when they report sales in 2021.
Do you have a reference or link for that info? I'd like to take a look.

Also, Rivian is a private company & doesn't have to release sales or delivery numbers. From what I've seen from them, I doubt they will.
 

St Bernard

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Do you have a reference or link for that info? I'd like to take a look.

Also, Rivian is a private company & doesn't have to release sales or delivery numbers. From what I've seen from them, I doubt they will.
Go to the RIVIAN Owners Forum. They list 360 total orders( for both Models) and u have to go through these numbers. I only looked at LE Vehicles. I would think they would release sales numbers especially if the numbers are good. But u are correct they don’t have to release anything. By the way 60% of the Reservations are for the R1T.
 

Mathmonkey

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Go to the RIVIAN Owners Forum. They list 360 total orders( for both Models) and u have to go through these numbers. I only looked at LE Vehicles. I would think they would release sales numbers especially if the numbers are good. But u are correct they don’t have to release anything. By the way 60% of the Reservations are for the R1T.
Maybe I'm being dense here, but how did you determine if someone ordered the launch edition? I get that you can narrow it down with some of the fields but I'm not sure I can fully identify what is Launch. Am I missing a field that says they ordered launch?
 

St Bernard

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Here are my assumptions as to LE:
1. Anyone who put a deposit down before 11/23/20 ( this is not sorted) so I took out all the entries after 11/22/20
2. Anyone ordering the 300 mile Pack
3. The list is broken down between the 2 Vehicles.

I can’t imagine someone would order before 11/23 and not want delivery in 2021. I excluded the people with the 400 mile pack as obviously those deliveries are 2022 and not part of LE.

If my assumptions are correct anyone can roughly figure out when they will get their Vehicles. You just figure out based on your reservation date where you stand. Let’s say your reservation date shows that out of the sample on the spreadsheet, on the other Forum, you are 75th out of 150 people. You can assume that( if you ordered the RIS) you will get your car around 2.5 months after they start delivering. This is based on a 5 month(R1S) delivery schedule. I have no way of knowing what the ramp up is so just assume it’s equal per month. I know this is not correct but we also don’t know how many cars will be manufactured before the start date. Hope this is clear.
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