tscanjr

Member
First Name
Tom
Joined
Apr 24, 2020
Messages
11
Reaction score
7
Location
Boston, MA
First Name
Tom
Vehicles
2017 Jeep Grand Cherokee Overland
Occupation
Tech Sales
DISCLAIMER - This is based on some BIG assumptions and might not be correct. Also, this is not exact, but should give a good approximation.

However, my analysis leads me to believe this is not only feasible, but likely...just look at the chart. See further below for the general/rough calculation for how to find your actual place in line (fancy spreadsheet numbers are slightly less round).

Summary:
  • Lowest preorder # in the dataset is 1472 placed 11/26/18
  • Highest preorder # in the dataset is 54686 placed 7/25/20 (highest reported is 54806, but isn't included here because I didn't have the preorder date)
  • Presumed Rivian preorders to date is right around 30K
How to determine your Adjusted Order # (actual place in line):
  • If your preorder number is less than 21K (before 12/26/19), subtract 1K
  • If your preorder number is less than 45K (before late May 2020), subtract 20K
  • If your preorder number is more than 50K (after late May 2020), subtract 25K
  • ***The Adjusted Order # does not take cancellations into account, so your actual place in line will be closer. You can make your own assumptions/calculations based on your thoughts on likely attrition.***
Adjusted Order # Chart (prettier & makes more sense, right?):
20200730_1355.png


Preorder # Chart:
20200730_1355_Raw.png


Assumptions:
  • Shopify starts order #s at 1000, so that should be subtracted from all order #s


  • Here's the BIG ONE - The December 2019 & May 2020 jumps in the "raw" preorder graph are artificial. I find this probable, because the numbers make sense for both instances. The jumps are around the number of preorders taken before them (i.e. ~19K in December 2019, & ~5K between December 2019 & May 2020)



HUGE thanks to all those that provided the order data used for this, and mad props to both @electruck & @DucRider for their contributions!

Please let us know your thoughts & anything you see that might not be currently considered.
Stupid question, and apologize if it's already been answered, but I couldn't find it. Do we have a feel for the difference in delivery times for the R1S vs R1T? If I am preorder #24,030 (by your math...which is great, thanks again!),but I ordered a R1S....does that still put me fall 2021?
 
OP
skyote

skyote

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2019
Messages
856
Reaction score
780
Location
Austin, TX
Vehicles
Jeeps & 2500HD Duramax
  • Thread starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #32
Stupid question, and apologize if it's already been answered, but I couldn't find it. Do we have a feel for the difference in delivery times for the R1S vs R1T? If I am preorder #24,030 (by your math...which is great, thanks again!),but I ordered a R1S....does that still put me fall 2021?
I would look at @johnking 's burndown charts in this thread, then add a couple months to get a good estimate for R1S. Production queue will be based on config, so if you order a smaller battery or more stripped down model, you're delivery will be further out than indicated by the charts.
 
Last edited:

whyasky

Member
First Name
Joe
Joined
Jul 15, 2020
Messages
7
Reaction score
11
Location
Mid-Atlantic
First Name
Joe
Vehicles
VW Jetta
Two questions for discussion here.

1) What are your thoughts on 15% as the assumed attrition percentage?

2) What are your thoughts on likely production throughput?
First, thanks to you and johnking for putting it together.

On item 1, I think that the overall attrition of 15% might be close for Rivian, but this could be higher in the early stages because not everyone who pre-ordered will be able to take immediate delivery. Separately, Tesla Model 3 had attrition of 23%+ by June of 2018 when production was going in earnest.

On point 2, the production rate of 20k/yr is in line with what they have stated. However, this doesn't include any ramp-up, which doesn't seem likely. I would not expect them to hit the ground running at the target rate. There are just too many variables to expect this to run at target rate on day one as there - too many potential hiccups. That said, Rivian has consistently taken a conservative stance on timing, so I'm rooting for them and hoping you're right!
 

LoneStar

Member
Joined
Aug 2, 2020
Messages
12
Reaction score
14
Location
San Diego
Vehicles
'19 Toy 4Runner
Occupation
Engineer
What has to be factored "on top of R1T/S" build rate and capacity utilization is Rivian's commitment to building EV skateboard chassis and maybe more for likes of Amazon, Ford, others.... They may even profit more from high-volume production of universal EV battery/drivetrains than on complete vehicles since much easier to streamline and predict fixed costs.
 

ja_kub_sz

Active Member
First Name
Jacob
Joined
Aug 4, 2020
Messages
31
Reaction score
25
Location
Central Illinois
First Name
Jacob
Vehicles
Land Rover Discovery
Occupation
Anesthesia
Two questions for discussion here.

1) What are your thoughts on 15% as the assumed attrition percentage?

2) What are your thoughts on likely production throughput?
15% attrition seems kinda low IMO. I would creep my guess to like 20-25% with people ultimately being adversely effected by covid related issues as a whole.

And throughput... I would say around 10-15k EV's for the first year. So I'll be conservative and guess 800-1000/month with a 250/month ramp up.

The delay for me is kinda welcomed, more time to get my charger installed and home/garage renovation done.

Really looking forward to the online vehicle configurator, because I have no clue what to expect. I want/need the 180kwh pack with my business and driving habits, but I just hope the R1T has all the other conveniences I've grown accustom to with my LR5. Other then that I don't know what I want color and option wise, but leaning towards a loaded one.
 
Last edited:

BBeach

New Member
First Name
Bill
Joined
Aug 3, 2020
Messages
3
Reaction score
1
Location
Chicago
First Name
Bill
Vehicles
Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
Occupation
Retired
Couple of observations from a facebook Rivian page. When the Cyber Truck was announced, quite a few long time place holders of Rivian's canceled their orders and I think quite a few people who were waiting to see what Tesla came up with and were more in line with the conventional design of the Rivian jumped on board. So the net affect was a big shuffling up in the Q for all those who stuck with their orders. That was my observation from reading comments during that event. So my deduction is all orders before Cyber Truck announcement may be much earlier in the Q than order numbers indicate. Does that seem logical to most here.
 

Jehorton

Well-Known Member
First Name
James
Joined
Jun 27, 2020
Messages
168
Reaction score
82
Location
Stuart Florida
First Name
James
Vehicles
2018 Ford F-150
Occupation
Firefighter
I also know 3 people just talking this past week that simply bought a spot in line for the CT just to have it. All think it’s ugly but they bought into the name. Also two of those three said they’d prob just sell their place in line or sell the truck when they get it.
 
OP
skyote

skyote

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2019
Messages
856
Reaction score
780
Location
Austin, TX
Vehicles
Jeeps & 2500HD Duramax
  • Thread starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #40
So my deduction is all orders before Cyber Truck announcement may be much earlier in the Q than order numbers indicate. Does that seem logical to most here.
Yes, I would expect a higher attrition rate for the preorders placed before CT reveal, and lower attrition for those that placed preorders after. I also expect a fair number of COVID cancellations.
 

Taxmuni

New Member
First Name
Jim
Joined
Feb 23, 2020
Messages
3
Reaction score
1
Location
Richmond
First Name
Jim
Vehicles
Honda Ridgeline, Audi A7 SUV
Occupation
E-commerce website
DISCLAIMER - This is based on some BIG assumptions and might not be correct. Also, this is not exact, but should give a good approximation.

However, my analysis leads me to believe this is not only feasible, but likely...just look at the chart. See further below for the general/rough calculation for how to find your actual place in line (fancy spreadsheet numbers are slightly less round).

Summary:
  • Lowest preorder # in the dataset is 1472 placed 11/26/18
  • Highest preorder # in the dataset is 54686 placed 7/25/20 (highest reported is 54806, but isn't included here because I didn't have the preorder date)
  • Presumed Rivian preorders to date is right around 30K
How to determine your Adjusted Order # (actual place in line):
  • If your preorder number is less than 21K (before 12/26/19), subtract 1K
  • If your preorder number is less than 45K (before late May 2020), subtract 20K
  • If your preorder number is more than 50K (after late May 2020), subtract 25K
  • ***The Adjusted Order # does not take cancellations into account, so your actual place in line will be closer. You can make your own assumptions/calculations based on your thoughts on likely attrition.***
Adjusted Order # Chart (prettier & makes more sense, right?):
20200730_1355.png


Preorder # Chart:
20200730_1355_Raw.png


Assumptions:
  • Shopify starts order #s at 1000, so that should be subtracted from all order #s


  • Here's the BIG ONE - The December 2019 & May 2020 jumps in the "raw" preorder graph are artificial. I find this probable, because the numbers make sense for both instances. The jumps are around the number of preorders taken before them (i.e. ~19K in December 2019, & ~5K between December 2019 & May 2020)



HUGE thanks to all those that provided the order data used for this, and mad props to both @electruck & @DucRider for their contributions!

Please let us know your thoughts & anything you see that might not be currently considered.
You may have already covered this... but regardless of whether you pre-ordered an RT1 Truck or an RS1 SUV, aren't we all in the same effective queue of order numbers? So if we figure that there are 4 RS1 orders for every 6 RT1 orders, and they will release the RT1 first (in 180mw battery size loaded--and for close to $100K)... your effective "number in line" will be much lower. Add to that the # of people who may (at only $1,000 for the option) have bought another car already or will defer for a lower-priced, shorter-range battery; or who may just not buy at all and refund... that also helps your chances for an earlier delivery for a RT1 truck-180mw.

On the flip-side; there is always a secondary market for the "rights" to buy a truck with another person's lower number. This was popular (I did it) in the 90's when I bought a Harley Davidson new model 10 months ahead of delivery. I took delivery of the bike in the crate and had it sold (for 4 months ahead of time) for a $2,500 profit. Same could happen with Rivian; so it will depend on how much time Rivian gives you to select your color/interior/options and post a "real" deposit of $10-25,000 to confirm your order.

Lots of this movie yet to play out.
 

DucRider

Well-Known Member
First Name
Gary
Joined
Oct 21, 2019
Messages
278
Reaction score
247
Location
rRegon
First Name
Gary
Vehicles
Clarity Electric
On the flip-side; there is always a secondary market for the "rights" to buy a truck with another person's lower number. This was popular (I did it) in the 90's when I bought a Harley Davidson new model 10 months ahead of delivery. I took delivery of the bike in the crate and had it sold (for 4 months ahead of time) for a $2,500 profit. Same could happen with Rivian; so it will depend on how much time Rivian gives you to select your color/interior/options and post a "real" deposit of $10-25,000 to confirm your order.
From the preorder agreement:
13. Assignment.
You may not assign your rights under these Terms without our express prior consent. Rivian may assign these Terms in our discretion without your consent.

And taking possession and reselling becomes problematic in regards to the Federal Tax Credit.
You would not be eligible since you are purchasing with the intent to resell, the person you are selling to would also not be eligible because they are not the original purchaser.

This does, of course, depend on how/if Rivian enforces this agreement. Tesla did allow people to effectively transfer their Model 3 registration to others even though they had substantially the same language in their agreement.
 

Coast2Coast

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Feb 17, 2020
Messages
314
Reaction score
321
Location
Santa Cruz, Ca./Odawara, Jpn
First Name
Mark
Vehicles
1981 Volvo wagon; 2006 Tacoma SR5; 2009 Toyota Prius
Added note to Taxmuni's #42, various threads, posts & people have opined on the R1T vs R1S split.

RJ said, 1.5 years ago, he expected a 55:45 split. A thread on the forum, asking folks to self-report, has it low 50s vs mid-40s with 5-6% undecided. Using John King's early spreadsheet calculations, I put it at 52:48, but that relied heavily on preferences in high population states, like NY, Florida, Texas & California.

So it's anyone's guess. We don't know what the cost differential will be between a R1T and R1S, except the R1S is expected to be higher, given that it has a "higher content" interior, such as a longer, finished cabin, third row seat option, and so on.

A lot will depend, I think, on the follow-on vehicles to the R1T/R1S and when they'll be announced. Will a rally-style, four door, mid-sized SUV pull more R1T or R1S people? Is it possible there might be an adventure van? A Dodge/Sprinter sized van, outfitted for carrying people or camping. That would appeal to a lot of folks, and this would be easily doable using the smallest size Amazon van.

In other words, still lots of unknowns, including the R1T vs R1S split. And no matter what it starts out to be, the split will change over time as more features and options are added and more reviews hit the net. An exciting time no matter which tickles your fancy
 
Top