Stupid question, and apologize if it's already been answered, but I couldn't find it. Do we have a feel for the difference in delivery times for the R1S vs R1T? If I am preorder #24,030 (by your math...which is great, thanks again!),but I ordered a R1S....does that still put me fall 2021?DISCLAIMER - This is based on some BIG assumptions and might not be correct. Also, this is not exact, but should give a good approximation.
However, my analysis leads me to believe this is not only feasible, but likely...just look at the chart. See further below for the general/rough calculation for how to find your actual place in line (fancy spreadsheet numbers are slightly less round).
How to determine your Adjusted Order # (actual place in line):
- Lowest preorder # in the dataset is 1472 placed 11/26/18
- Highest preorder # in the dataset is 54686 placed 7/25/20 (highest reported is 54806, but isn't included here because I didn't have the preorder date)
- Presumed Rivian preorders to date is right around 30K
Adjusted Order # Chart (prettier & makes more sense, right?):
- If your preorder number is less than 21K (before 12/26/19), subtract 1K
- If your preorder number is less than 45K (before late May 2020), subtract 20K
- If your preorder number is more than 50K (after late May 2020), subtract 25K
- ***The Adjusted Order # does not take cancellations into account, so your actual place in line will be closer. You can make your own assumptions/calculations based on your thoughts on likely attrition.***
Preorder # Chart:
- Shopify starts order #s at 1000, so that should be subtracted from all order #s
- Here's the BIG ONE - The December 2019 & May 2020 jumps in the "raw" preorder graph are artificial. I find this probable, because the numbers make sense for both instances. The jumps are around the number of preorders taken before them (i.e. ~19K in December 2019, & ~5K between December 2019 & May 2020)
HUGE thanks to all those that provided the order data used for this, and mad props to both @electruck & @DucRider for their contributions!
Please let us know your thoughts & anything you see that might not be currently considered.