skyote

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DISCLAIMER - This is based on some BIG assumptions and might not be correct. Also, this is not exact, but should give a good approximation.

However, my analysis leads me to believe this is not only feasible, but likely...just look at the chart. See further below for the general/rough calculation for how to find your actual place in line (fancy spreadsheet numbers are slightly less round).

Summary:
  • Lowest preorder # in the dataset is 1472 placed 11/26/18
  • Highest preorder # in the dataset is 54686 placed 7/25/20 (highest reported is 54806, but isn't included here because I didn't have the preorder date)
  • Presumed Rivian preorders to date is right around 30K
How to determine your Adjusted Order # (actual place in line):
  • If your preorder number is less than 21K (before 12/26/19), subtract 1K
  • If your preorder number is less than 45K (before late May 2020), subtract 20K
  • If your preorder number is more than 50K (after late May 2020), subtract 25K
  • ***The Adjusted Order # does not take cancellations into account, so your actual place in line will be closer. You can make your own assumptions/calculations based on your thoughts on likely attrition.***
Adjusted Order # Chart (prettier & makes more sense, right?):
20200730_1355.png


Preorder # Chart:
20200730_1355_Raw.png


Assumptions:
  • Shopify starts order #s at 1000, so that should be subtracted from all order #s
Google search results would seem to indicate that Shopify starts order #s at 1001 for a new store and increments from there.
  • Here's the BIG ONE - The December 2019 & May 2020 jumps in the "raw" preorder graph are artificial. I find this probable, because the numbers make sense for both instances. The jumps are around the number of preorders taken before them (i.e. ~19K in December 2019, & ~5K between December 2019 & May 2020)

Googled Shopify order number jump and found this from their support staff:
Are you currently using an "Edit Order" app? Doing some research, I was able to find out that missing order numbers in the admin it is generally caused by an Edit order app. When an order is created by one of these apps, the new order takes the next number in the sequence. If this is the case for your store, then this wouldn't be something we can alter or revert to keep the numbers aligned. It'd be best to reach out to the app developer as they may be able to provide further insight on steps that can be taken to avoid their app from causing this issue.

If they edited all the orders using an app on the date in question, it would effectively double the order number. This fits very well for the first jump, and could account for the second as well if they did another batch edit for the next "group".

It is also worth noting that an abandoned cart will use up an order number that will then be missing from the list. I doubt that there were ~19K abandoned carts in one night, but possible as hackers will yry many thinks to stress/crack a system. It is however likely that at least some carts were abandoned and the actual number of orders is therefore lower.
HUGE thanks to all those that provided the order data used for this, and mad props to both @electruck & @DucRider for their contributions!

Please let us know your thoughts & anything you see that might not be currently considered.
 
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electruck

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Nice work @skyote!

Now let's look at some major events in time based on Rivian's press releases:

Nov 26/27, 2018 - debut
Feb 15, 2019 - $700M investment led by Amazon
April 24, 2019 - $500M Ford investment
Sept 10, 2019 - $350M Cox investment
Dec 23, 2019 - $1.3B funding round
July 10, 2020 - $2.5B funding round

There are definite (sometimes subtle, sometimes pronounced) changes in slope at each of these events. Especially with the earlier events, you can see a surge of pre-orders coming in. With some of the later events, there seemed to be a more subtle but longer lasting uptick in the rate at which pre-orders were being placed likely reflecting an increasing confidence that Rivian is "for real".

We can also see a noticeable drop off from March until early July of 2020 which I can only assume was due to covid.
 

electruck

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Of course everything will change when we can configure our vehicles. They flat out said that is more important when I emailed them. Says the guy at the back of the line.
Absolutely. This is roughly your pre-order "priority" which is related to but not equivalent to production order.
 

OldEVGuy

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Please let us know your thoughts & anything you see that might not be currently considered.
Thank you @skyote! This is very cool!

I can’t help but thinking about the Lincoln SUV project that was cancelled. Since Rivian doesn’t need production facilities for that project, will that allow them to produce more Rivian trucks and SUV’s at a faster rate than earlier expected? Could this be a factor in getting our vehicles quicker? Just a thought!
 
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skyote

skyote

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Thank you @skyote! This is very cool!

I can’t help but thinking about the Lincoln SUV project that was cancelled. Since Rivian doesn’t need production facilities for that project, will that allow them to produce more Rivian trucks and SUV’s at a faster rate than earlier expected? Could this be a factor in getting our vehicles quicker? Just a thought!
Very possible, & I hope so! I don't know if we ever saw an expected release date on the Riv-Lincoln, but there's also the chance they weren't planning for that production until later.
 

Sully151

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Thank you @skyote! This is very cool!

I can’t help but thinking about the Lincoln SUV project that was cancelled. Since Rivian doesn’t need production facilities for that project, will that allow them to produce more Rivian trucks and SUV’s at a faster rate than earlier expected? Could this be a factor in getting our vehicles quicker? Just a thought!
Again, back of the line here, but you have to assume with all of the money they raised, the major additions they are making to the plant, and the fact that they pushed deliveries to Summer, there is a good chance they are pushing for more vehicles being built in the first year than they have announced. Under promise, over deliver.
 
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skyote

skyote

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I would place a bet that all active preorder holders right now will have their vehicles within the first 12 months of respective R1T/S production start.

Also, do we have any skilled Excel statistics people here that would like to do additional analysis on the dataset? If so, PM me. And yes, that could be you @johnking .
 

johnking

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I would place a bet that all active preorder holders right now will have their vehicles within the first 12 months of respective R1T/S production start.

Also, do we have any skilled Excel statistics people here that would like to do additional analysis on the dataset? If so, PM me. And yes, that could be you @johnking .
@skyote - Awesome work. I love that we were able to get the pre-order#. Let me know what you need. If we stick with the 30K, then the current burndown chart still seems relevant. Based on the data provided from folks here, we might be able to overlay more accurate order placement times.
 

kanundrum

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I would place a bet that all active preorder holders right now will have their vehicles within the first 12 months of respective R1T/S production start.

Also, do we have any skilled Excel statistics people here that would like to do additional analysis on the dataset? If so, PM me. And yes, that could be you @johnking .
I consider my self decent, shoot me a pm!
 

Jazzyjeff139

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DISCLAIMER - This is based on some BIG assumptions and might not be correct. Also, this is not exact, but should give a good approximation.

However, my analysis leads me to believe this is not only feasible, but likely...just look at the chart. See further below for the general/rough calculation for how to find your actual place in line (fancy spreadsheet numbers are slightly less round).

Summary:
  • Lowest preorder # in the dataset is 1472 placed 11/26/18
  • Highest preorder # in the dataset is 54686 placed 7/25/20 (highest reported is 54806, but isn't included here because I didn't have the preorder date)
  • Presumed Rivian preorders to date is right around 30K
How to determine your Adjusted Order # (actual place in line):
  • If your preorder number is less than 21K (before 12/26/19), subtract 1K
  • If your preorder number is less than 45K (before late May 2020), subtract 20K
  • If your preorder number is more than 50K (after late May 2020), subtract 25K
  • ***The Adjusted Order # does not take cancellations into account, so your actual place in line will be closer. You can make your own assumptions/calculations based on your thoughts on likely attrition.***
Adjusted Order # Chart (prettier & makes more sense, right?):
20200730_1355.png


Preorder # Chart:
20200730_1355_Raw.png


Assumptions:
  • Shopify starts order #s at 1000, so that should be subtracted from all order #s


  • Here's the BIG ONE - The December 2019 & May 2020 jumps in the "raw" preorder graph are artificial. I find this probable, because the numbers make sense for both instances. The jumps are around the number of preorders taken before them (i.e. ~19K in December 2019, & ~5K between December 2019 & May 2020)



HUGE thanks to all those that provided the order data used for this, and mad props to both @electruck & @DucRider for their contributions!

Please let us know your thoughts & anything you see that might not be currently considered.
You guys are INSANE Stat nerds.. I LOVE It!!! Thanks so much for doing this. Even if its half right, and I think more is probable than less, It's great!! Enjoy your weekend boys.
 
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skyote

skyote

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So what you’re saying is I might actually get my truck In 2021 after all ?!

1596226679635.gif
Offerman is awesome. Met him by chance at a hotel bar in Dallas November 2016, the night the Cubs won the World Series in game 7. Was at the bar with a couple coworkers watching the game, when he sat down next to me. Bar had closed @ 10 & the bartender refused to give us drinks despite my best attempts at persuasion.

Didn't recognize him at first...he had a large beard & a cubs hat pulled down low, carrying a guitar case & a large lacquered log that looked like a piece of driftwood that had been dressed up.

Started talking to him & knew there was something familiar about his mannerisms. Finally asked him what brings a man to Dallas with a guitar and a lacquered log. Said he was on a book tour about woodworking & "did a little show" at the Majestic Theatre, and the owner of the Majestic had given him the log. Then asked if I had seen a show called Parks & Rec...recognition hit me and the bartender at the same time, and the bartender opened the bar for us.

Ended up having a couple Shiner Bocks and more conversation with Nick Offerman as the Cubs won the World Series. Turns out he'd been a lifelong Cubs fan & talked about driving to games with his dad as a kid.

Cool brush with fame that I'll always remember.
 

sevengroove

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Of course everything will change when we can configure our vehicles. They flat out said that is more important when I emailed them. Says the guy at the back of the line.
In the same boat here - back of the line. Emailed them to ask for more clarity on the process, and got told that the actual configurations will have a pretty significant impact on production priority, along with how soon you actually pull the trigger on an order. So in theory a preorder #50xxx could get their 180kwh R1T before a #1xxx 105kwh variant order.

They also mentioned that when the configurator is released "later this year" (what happened to "this summer"?) delivery timeframes will be provided based on the configurations selected.
 

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