Which Manufacture will put 10K Pick-ups in Customers hand First?

skyote

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What?

The Cyber Truck is F150 size -- including length. CT visibility will probably suck, too, thanks to that odd design they've shown. And Tesla doesn't offer any 360 degree camera views, unlike Ford.

By all the evidence we've seen, the CT will likely be more difficult to navigate in tight spots and park, compared to other trucks.
He was referring to Rivian, not CT.





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JeremyMKE

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The Cybertruck is a bare bones contraption with amazing performance numbers at an unbelievable price.

This is a major reason why the Cybertruck might be a success... The newcomers to the EV market are going to struggle to compete on price.
At that price, luxury has a new definition.

The Cybertruck makes a statement, it is a bold statement at that. The question is how many buyers are there who want to make that statement. Is it the Bro-Dozer crowd? Is it the toy hauler crowd?

Its an exciting time to be an automotive consumer. Think of the lull he have been in recently. With the exception of the recent efficiency gains from forced induction cars and trucks have been a slow evolution. It has been a golden era of quality and performance for the last few decades and the bar is pretty high for those. I think performance is in the bag, quality???
 

DucRider

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Fortunately it's not a situation that dictates that only one EV pickup will succeed/exist. I don't think that Rivian/RJ care if they are first to 10K or some other arbitrary number - particularly if it comes at the expense of quality.
When Tesla was pretty much the only game in town, buyers were extremely tolerant of fit and finish issues. To them the tech, performance and cache were worth it. The market is changing and Tesla will need to adapt. The CT is - in theory - easier to build with less issues. Musk had that theory about more robots robots in the factory at one point and that didn't turn out so well. Turned out the OEM makers did know at least a little about volume production. I'm all for more EVs on the road and hopefully building a new type of vehicle (exoskeleton) with a whole new set of processes goes as smoothly as Elon believes.

As to first to 10K pick-ups, Rivians production is going to be divided between the R1T and R1S. I fully believe they will meet the all LEs delivered in 2021 goal. They shut of the ability to configure that at an arbitrary number they believed they could meet. Probably somewhere around a 50/50 mix between the truck and SUV (+-10-15%). 10K trucks in 2021? Maybe not. Who really cares?

The novelty of the CT will also likely wear off rather quickly when every one on the road looks nearly identical with the stainless finish. Maybe some will wrap them, but people like to have color (and other) choices on their vehicles. It simplifies the production for the CT and takes paint quality completely off the table, but long term I don't know how it will play.
 

Gshenderson

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When I first saw the CT, I thought oh man... that’s ugly. You have got to be kidding me.
but as crazy as this sounds, the shape grows on you. Makes all ICE trucks look like an antique.
and of course, the raw performance, range and tech is over the top. Range is king and that’s why it will dominate.
April Fool’s Day was two weeks ago...
 
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I think Rivian has staying power, and I expect them to deliver first. Ford is having production difficulties right now (see: Bronco delay, Mach-E delay/recall) and I would not be surprised if it takes them a bit to properly launch the F-150e. GM has an EV launch plan, but its rolling out so cautiously that who knows when they will actually be to market. I would not be surprised if it takes until the eSilverado for them to actually produce in volume.


There will be a an initial wave of CyberTruck buyers, but then I expect it to trail off rapidly.

Musk has openly said they didn't study the truck market, they just built what they thought would be cool. In my opinion, they looked at advertisements and designed to that, not understanding that what gets omitted from truck ads are the basic functions that are assumed. The whole design reeks of "I made a bot watch a thousand truck ads and then write its own."
- Its so tough its bullet proof
- It makes this much torque
- It (allegedly) has a good tow rating

The CT fails at doing basic truck things. You cannot reach over the bed sides, you cannot put a rack on, and we know Musk will have a heart attack if you attempt to customize it in any way other than paint. It is a distillation of what people who have never owned a truck think truck people want, and misses what we (who actually have owned trucks) assume will be in a truck.
 

jimcgov3

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I think Rivian has staying power, and I expect them to deliver first. Ford is having production difficulties right now (see: Bronco delay, Mach-E delay/recall) and I would not be surprised if it takes them a bit to properly launch the F-150e. GM has an EV launch plan, but its rolling out so cautiously that who knows when they will actually be to market. I would not be surprised if it takes until the eSilverado for them to actually produce in volume.


There will be a an initial wave of CyberTruck buyers, but then I expect it to trail off rapidly.

- Its so tough its bullet proof
- It makes this much torque
- It (allegedly) has a good tow rating

The CT fails at doing basic truck things. You cannot reach over the bed sides, you cannot put a rack on...
Can we be friends?

Your last points hit the nail on the head...it is those things are intrinsic to being a truck...Are the specs ridiculous? Yes. Will you be able to do basic truck things? No.
 

cwoodcox

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Can we be friends?

Your last points hit the nail on the head...it is those things are intrinsic to being a truck...Are the specs ridiculous? Yes. Will you be able to do basic truck things? No.
That might be why it succeeds, though. At least at first. Lots of non-truck people will be buying it simply because it’s a Tesla truck, only to be very disappointed in how not-very-useful it is.
 

jimcgov3

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That might be why it succeeds, though. At least at first. Lots of non-truck people will be buying it simply because it’s a Tesla truck, only to be very disappointed in how not-very-useful it is.
Many years ago....ok...almost 2 years ago, after I pre-ordered, I said just that. Many people will buy this truck because there is a T on the hood.
 

DuckTruck

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Been there, brother. I'll cut your poor porcelain some slack 🚽💥
Thanks! Luckily, both the porcelain and I came through it clean as a whistle. In fact, the Dr. confirmed what many have told me since childhood, that I'm a perfect A$$#@LE. Nice to have it all behind me now.

All kidding aside, while the preparation is the worst part of the prodedure, it's an important routine to go through. I lost a family friend to colon cancer because he'd never had a colonoscopy, until problems arose. I lost another older friend to prostate cancer, only to find out he had never had that simple exam. Sadly, we've all lost someone to cancer. Don't be that person. Frequent exams and early detection are the keys. Don't be afraid, Dr. Strangeglove is your friend!
 

TessP100D

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Many years ago....ok...almost 2 years ago, after I pre-ordered, I said just that. Many people will buy this truck because there is a T on the hood.
Yea, those guys over at “T”” sure make a good car. Hard to argue with actual cars of the road, with actual real range, and those batteries, tech and let’s not forget the OTA updates and super charger network. Yea there’s that.
 

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Ouch... good point TessP100D.
 

2000prerunner

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When Tesla finally does start to ship the Cybertruck, it won’t matter how many Rivan‘s there will be on the road. Tesla will dominate this market. That’s just the way it is.

Basically seems like the eventual outcome at this point :confused:.

All the dominoes are stacked up and ready to fall (Giga factories, battery cost/supply, manufacturing tech, material teach, software tech and price point).

in 2021... I think R1 will be first out on the trails tho!
 

jimcgov3

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Yea, those guys over at “T”” sure make a good car. Hard to argue with actual cars of the road, with actual real range, and those batteries, tech and let’s not forget the OTA updates and super charger network. Yea there’s that.
500,000 CT reservations speak to the fact that due to the T, they jump...also fysa, I own a '17 MS. I understand the pros of said T on the hood. Actual range is still in question though.
 

TessP100D

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500,000 CT reservations speak to the fact that due to the T, they jump...also fysa, I own a '17 MS. I understand the pros of said T on the hood. Actual range is still in question though.
Range is king. That’s the number one lesson I have learned. You can never have enough.
 

SANZC02

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Basically seems like the eventual outcome at this point :confused:.

All the dominoes are stacked up and ready to fall (Giga factories, battery cost/supply, manufacturing tech, material teach, software tech and price point).

in 2021... I think R1 will be first out on the trails tho!
I think Tesla will need to do 4 things in the very near future to hold onto their market share;
1) Make some marketing adjustments to see what people want/need
2) Fix their production quality
3) Fix their service issues
4) Make repair parts available for the existing vehicles

Certain things you can get by with when there is no competition but once you have other major players you need to adjust/eliminate your shortfalls.

For sure their biggest assets are the Supercharger Network and proven range + battery durability. This will help them over the short term but there will be major challengers in the very near future that will start chipping away at these strengths. Once that happens it will put a magnifying glass on the other areas and if they are not properly addressed it will be an issue for them.
 

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