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Which Manufacture will put 10K Pick-ups in Customers hand First?

DuckTruck

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Anecdotally, I know several people interested in either Ford or the Rivian without me evangelizing. Nobody I personally know wants the cyber truck. In a little dubious of the actual market for the cybertruck unless they actually undercut everyone (which I'm really dubious about)
SeaGeo,

Funny that you mention that. Since our conversation about the earlier Ford Lightning event in Seattle, I find several people have interest in talking about the CyberTruck, but only one of them was serious enough to put down the $100 deposit or consider it for purchase. FWIW, he's more intrigued by the Hummer EV and also has a reservation for one.

All of the info about the CT makes it sound like it will be an amazing vehicle, but I run with a crowd of F-150/250/350 owners (at least a dozen of them) and not one Tesla owner. While most of those Ford owners are curious about the Lightning, all of them are now pretty well educated about the Rivians, as well. They experience my excitement and enthusiasm... regularly... whether they like it or not. ?

Just as the Platinum version of the Lightning appears to be priced similarly to the top R1T variant, I have to believe the top end of the CT lineup will also be in that financial ballpark.
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Max

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Anecdotally, I know several people interested in either Ford or the Rivian without me evangelizing. Nobody I personally know wants the cyber truck. In a little dubious of the actual market for the cybertruck unless they actually undercut everyone (which I'm really dubious about)
Considering the cost, if all were available today, my choice would be CT2, Lightening Pro, R1S in that order.

if the price were the same, R1S, CT3, Lightening
 

SeaGeo

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Considering the cost, if all were available today, my choice would be CT2, Lightening Pro, R1S in that order.

if the price were the same, R1S, CT3, Lightening
Didn't Tesla's website used to have price/specs broken out for the CT? I'm not seeing anything mentioned anymore.
 

Max

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Didn't Tesla's website used to have price/specs broken out for the CT? I'm not seeing anything mentioned anymore.
Nice catch. I have no idea what that means. Tesla is all about maximizing the margin by streamlining production and increasing output. I wonder if they plan to at least initially produce only one CT until they catch up with reservation. That will allow them to flex their muscles against Rivian and Ford and say even though we are late in the game, our production numbers are much higher. Then again, it may be just some web guy that suggested in a meeting we already have enough data to know proportion of interest. Let’s simplify ordering; they have to pick options later anyway, powertrain could be one of them.
 
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I have been following along here for awhile as I am in the middle of the queue for a LE R1T. Assuming the LE numbers being guessed at on the board 7.5K give or take I am becoming pessimistic about a 2021 delivery. I know a few people in the Normal area and in conversations about production I was greeted with blank stares. Who do you think will deliver their 10,000 Pick-up first? Tesla, Workhorse, Ford, Chevy, or Rivian. And yes I included Workhorse because that whole relationship with GM is strange at best and I suspect they are a Trojan horse for GM. Think current Silverado with a battery pack. Tesla factory is going up fast and they will not spend 2 years testing that truck, they will just start selling trucks and see what happens. There comes a point where you settle on a design and move. Im afraid Rivian has lost there first mover advantage in the pickup market.
First 10,000? Rivian and then Ford. The more interesting question is first 100,000? And I think it will be the F-150 Lighting. The
I have been following along here for awhile as I am in the middle of the queue for a LE R1T. Assuming the LE numbers being guessed at on the board 7.5K give or take I am becoming pessimistic about a 2021 delivery. I know a few people in the Normal area and in conversations about production I was greeted with blank stares. Who do you think will deliver their 10,000 Pick-up first? Tesla, Workhorse, Ford, Chevy, or Rivian. And yes I included Workhorse because that whole relationship with GM is strange at best and I suspect they are a Trojan horse for GM. Think current Silverado with a battery pack. Tesla factory is going up fast and they will not spend 2 years testing that truck, they will just start selling trucks and see what happens. There comes a point where you settle on a design and move. Im afraid Rivian has lost there first mover advantage in the pickup market.
I have been following along here for awhile as I am in the middle of the queue for a LE R1T. Assuming the LE numbers being guessed at on the board 7.5K give or take I am becoming pessimistic about a 2021 delivery. I know a few people in the Normal area and in conversations about production I was greeted with blank stares. Who do you think will deliver their 10,000 Pick-up first? Tesla, Workhorse, Ford, Chevy, or Rivian. And yes I included Workhorse because that whole relationship with GM is strange at best and I suspect they are a Trojan horse for GM. Think current Silverado with a battery pack. Tesla factory is going up fast and they will not spend 2 years testing that truck, they will just start selling trucks and see what happens. There comes a point where you settle on a design and move. Im afraid Rivian has lost there first mover advantage in the pickup market.
Rivian will be first to 10,000 then Ford with the F-150 Lightning. Very little doubt in my mind from what I’ve been reading.

I think a more interesting question is who will be first to 100k trucks?

Given how serious Darren Palmer (General Manager Battery Electric Vehicles at Ford) seems to be about shipping the Lightning in huge volume, I think Ford will get to 100k first.
 

Scoiatael

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I think Rivian delivers 300 R1Ts in 2021, never manages to ramp up beyond 500 R1s per month and ends up delivering around 5000 combined R1Ts and R1Ss in 2022.
Ford starts production in May, delivers 10k by August and another 15k by end of year for 25k total.
Cybertruck gets a "Manufacturing is hard" tweet from Elon and gets delayed to 2024.
 

CharlieSA

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Gave you a like just for the manufacturing is hard line
I think Rivian delivers 300 R1Ts in 2021, never manages to ramp up beyond 500 R1s per month and ends up delivering around 5000 combined R1Ts and R1Ss in 2022.
Ford starts production in May, delivers 10k by August and another 15k by end of year for 25k total.
Cybertruck gets a "Manufacturing is hard" tweet from Elon and gets delayed to 2024.
 

Engi_Nerd

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My money is on Ford. They have worked out a bunch of the kinks on the Mach-E, which has been an amazingly impressive first effort. They have also been smart enough to use every inch of an existing F-150 they can, so the risk is very low for high volume.

IMO, Rivian has not delivered anything until people who aren't affiliated with the company or bound by NDAs start receiving vehicles and the timeline for that remains a question mark. I would be surprised if we see more than a few hundred units this year, and any small problems could see production fall short of 10K next year.

The Cybertruck is vaporware, dependent on new cells, factory, manufacturing processes etc. Production of whatever that ends up being won't be really humming along until late 2023 as was said. Hopefully by then Rivian and Ford have faster charging capability.
 

Pherdnut

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I think the CT unveil had nothing to do with what is ultimately launched for the Cybertruck and everything to do with the R1T at the time. Its top price was exactly Rivian's lowest tier price, prior to the price drop that followed in Jan 2020. IMO, it's abundantly clear Musk had no realistic expectation they'd be making a 2021 launch.
 

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Max

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I think the CT unveil had nothing to do with what is ultimately launched for the Cybertruck and everything to do with the R1T at the time. Its top price was exactly Rivian's lowest tier price, prior to the price drop that followed in Jan 2020. IMO, it's abundantly clear Musk had no realistic expectation they'd be making a 2021 launch.
Specs seem to be a reactionary list as well. Rear wheel steering was added after Hummer reveal. I wonder if there are more changes now that specs have disappeared from the order page. Tesla engineers must be going bananas with the moving target. So many things are new with Cybertruck that is hard to believe there will not be multiple delays down the line. However when they finally do produce and ramp up, production numbers likely to be mighty high. They have already hammered down high speed manufacturing. With battery factory next door , Gigapress in the bulding and no paint, it would be even faster. It would be interesting to see if they will ever produce CT1 and what the price will be. And at that point what the low spec Rivian will look like.
 

Scoiatael

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My money is on Ford. They have worked out a bunch of the kinks on the Mach-E, which has been an amazingly impressive first effort. They have also been smart enough to use every inch of an existing F-150 they can, so the risk is very low for high volume.

IMO, Rivian has not delivered anything until people who aren't affiliated with the company or bound by NDAs start receiving vehicles and the timeline for that remains a question mark. I would be surprised if we see more than a few hundred units this year, and any small problems could see production fall short of 10K next year.

The Cybertruck is vaporware, dependent on new cells, factory, manufacturing processes etc. Production of whatever that ends up being won't be really humming along until late 2023 as was said. Hopefully by then Rivian and Ford have faster charging capability.
Ford has a huge advantage with the fact that it shares most of its parts with the ICE F150. They can easily stockpile those parts and just start pumping out the batteries and other systems that are unique to the Lightning.
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