Which Manufacture will put 10K Pick-ups in Customers hand First?

GaryL

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I have been following along here for awhile as I am in the middle of the queue for a LE R1T. Assuming the LE numbers being guessed at on the board 7.5K give or take I am becoming pessimistic about a 2021 delivery. I know a few people in the Normal area and in conversations about production I was greeted with blank stares. Who do you think will deliver their 10,000 Pick-up first? Tesla, Workhorse, Ford, Chevy, or Rivian. And yes I included Workhorse because that whole relationship with GM is strange at best and I suspect they are a Trojan horse for GM. Think current Silverado with a battery pack. Tesla factory is going up fast and they will not spend 2 years testing that truck, they will just start selling trucks and see what happens. There comes a point where you settle on a design and move. Im afraid Rivian has lost there first mover advantage in the pickup market.





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CommodoreAmiga

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I think it's going to be Rivian to deliver the first unit, and either Rivian or GM to deliver #10k, first.

I think Rivian and GM will deliver their 10k unit before Tesla or Workhorse delivers their first.
 

DuckTruck

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First? Rivian.
 

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I'd guess around around the end of May of next year.
 

azbill

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That would imply Rivian misses the 2021 window to fill all the LE RT1 orders
We have no idea how many LEs have been ordered, or how many they plan on producing.
 

Amdolan

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That would imply Rivian misses the 2021 window to fill all the LE RT1 orders
Not necessarily. There will be people canceling their reservations and there may be changes between the LE and non-LE vehicles that require changes to the manufacturing process. So you may see delivery of all LE vehicles, a month or two for production “retooling” and then beginning delivery of non-LE vehicles.
 

skyote

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It wouldn't surprise me for Rivian to deliver 10K trucks in 2021, along with 6-7K R1S.

If not, they will have 10K trucks shipped by early 2022.
 
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GaryL

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We have no idea how many LEs have been ordered, or how many they plan on producing.
Agreed but judging by the info on this board I think it is reasonable to assume a minimum of 5K up to 10K.
 
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GaryL

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Not necessarily. There will be people canceling their reservations and there may be changes between the LE and non-LE vehicles that require changes to the manufacturing process. So you may see delivery of all LE vehicles, a month or two for production “retooling” and then beginning delivery of non-LE vehicles.
I guess I missed some details of the LE that would require 2 months of line retooling to produce a standard modle
 

DuckTruck

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My mistake. It's early here. My first recollection was a schedule of 800 units per month. A.M. Lizard Brain put that at 12 months to 10k. Lights are on, coffee now flowing. Knowing it will take time to fully ramp up to 800 units per week, I wouldn't be surprised if it took them until November to hit unit number 10,000 (if there are enough orders) If not, it'll take time to retool for the MaxPack. Also, attention will be needed for getting the R1S going in August.

What's your guess for Rivian's R1T? Who do you think can beat them to 10k delivered units and by when will that manufacturer do so?

p.s. I'm prepping for a colonoscopy later this morning, so please cut me some slack. Kinda preoccupied. So as not to violate HIPAA regs, let's keep that between us. I'll be back in fe
 
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Amdolan

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I guess I missed some details of the LE that would require 2 months of line retooling to produce a standard modle
Didn’t say it would, just said it may. As you produce vehicles, you identify areas where changes can be made to the current process to increase throughput. Those generally take some time to incorporate and LE and non-LE is a natural breakpoint. There has also been speculation on this forum that there may be changes between the LE and non-LE vehicle, as far as I know, nothing confirmed at this point.
 
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GaryL

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My mistake. It's early here. My first recollection was a schedule of 800 units per month. A.M. Lizard Brain put that at 12 months to 10k. Lights are on, coffee now flowing. Knowing it will take time to fully ramp up to 800 units per week, I wouldn't be surprised if it took them until November to hit unit number 10,000. Especially given the attention needed for getting the R1S going in August.

What's your guess for Rivian's R1T? Who do you think can beat them to 10k delivered units and by when will that manufacturer do so?

p.s. I'm prepping for a colonscopy later this morning, so please cut me some slack. Kinda preoccupied. So as not to violate HIPAA regs, let's keep that between us. I'll be back in fe
First good luck on the proceeder. I have worked backwards from the statement that the LE will be delivered in 2021. Assuming 7500 LE, 3rd quarter production of 2.5K and 4th quarter at 5K that would work. I'm just not hearing much chatter over there to make me feel good about that time line. Right now if I had to bet money I would say Tesla will have 10K built by end of 2nd quarter 2022. Any hiccups in Normal and its going to be close.
 
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