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Where is the price floor for RIVN?

Pherdnut

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Don't try to predict the floor. If you're going long, find a price you're comfortable buying shares at and ease into that position whenever it's at or below that every couple of weeks. Price could be all over the place for the next couple years. If you don't dump your entire portfolio in all at once, you'll be in a better position to take advantage of big dips as they happen. For me, that threshold is south of $100 for the next 6 months and I'll reevaluate at the end of that. If it dumps to $20 and I'm averaged at $90, great, I'll take advantage and spend a little more. I don't care about whether I'm in the red or not until the company starts making a profit and carving out real market share.

This of course, only if you're well-informed, and highly confident Rivian will become an established BEV maker and household name in the next 3-5 years as I am. If you're not, you're just going to stress about the price action compared to where your average is and might be better off waiting until they're closer to what are likely their biggest upcoming catalysts, the R2 launches and going multinational.
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Iwannarivian

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I bough the IPO at $78 which was higher than it should have been. I thought the earlier $54 target was more realistic.

The IPO buyers have to wait 93 days before they can sell so none of the current fluctuations bother me.

Until they start delivering a lot of cars, the stock is insanely overvalued and only boosted by hype.
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Zoidz

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If any of us knew the answer to your question, those people would be stock market mega-millionaires and would not be hanging around here.
 

Surfnturf

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The current stock price is based on all speculation and hype. Doesn’t matter how many pre orders they have if they can’t get them produced and there is a log jam on the assembly line. Rivian seems to be great engineers but horrible at manufacturing and customer service which does not seem to be a good formula if the only way you make money is selling products you manufacture. They are going to burn through a bunch of that cash but I think once they figure it out and start producing vehicles their stock will jump like Tesla. Will need to find that floor which should probably be within the next 3-6 months.
 

the long way downunder

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how can this be a serious question?
the "floor" is not a fixed price, it's a notion of support
if you want a risk envelope, the lower range as of today is a one year price range below the IPO strike price
you can look at option prices to understand how the market assesses these price ranges, it's not a mystery or a belief, it's a statistical moment in time
 

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The 'floor' is what the market will bear. No one can predict that.
 

the long way downunder

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As of Dec 23rd, 2021, the $RIVN floor is $88.40 trading at $96.
Other than Musk reneging on his word saying he had finished selling billions in $TSLA, there's no apparent selling pressure on $RIVN for the foreseeable. We've weathered the first earnings, we've taken the rollercoaster through secular sell-offs and all-time highs, it has cost us a trading range around $110 now down to $95, which I attribute mostly to all EV companies, not Rivian alone.
I'll continue to offer to buy at $95 and be okay with adding as low as $85 in the current market.
Dec-Jan tends to be bullish. So long as the S&P and NASDAQ are bullish, I see no reason to be bearish on the only competitor to Tesla (BYD is a direct and more substantial competitor globally, but that's a separate matter and only strengthens the status of Rivian) with the whole world moving to EVs.
 

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As of Dec 23rd, 2021, the $RIVN floor is $88.40 trading at $96.
Other than Musk reneging on his word saying he had finished selling billions in $TSLA, there's no apparent selling pressure on $RIVN for the foreseeable. We've weathered the first earnings, we've taken the rollercoaster through secular sell-offs and all-time highs, it has cost us a trading range around $110 now down to $95, which I attribute mostly to all EV companies, not Rivian alone.
I'll continue to offer to buy at $95 and be okay with adding as low as $85 in the current market.
Dec-Jan tends to be bullish. So long as the S&P and NASDAQ are bullish, I see no reason to be bearish on the only competitor to Tesla (BYD is a direct and more substantial competitor globally, but that's a separate matter and only strengthens the status of Rivian) with the whole world moving to EVs.
While the question about a near-term floor is an interesting question, I'm really wondering more about where the stock will go in the 5-10 year window. Some will profit handsomely trading RIVN, but I like it for the long haul.

Every time I try to do day-trading type moves, I end up second-guessing myself, even if I come out ahead. The old "Buy high, sell low, and make it up on volume" plan doesn't work so well.

To each, their own, I guess. Good luck!
 

the long way downunder

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While the question about a near-term floor is an interesting question, I'm really wondering more about where the stock will go in the 5-10 year window. Some will profit handsomely trading RIVN, but I like it for the long haul.

Every time I try to do day-trading type moves, I end up second-guessing myself, even if I come out ahead. The old "Buy high, sell low, and make it up on volume" plan doesn't work so well.

To each, their own, I guess. Good luck!
There's no way of predicting 5-10 year price behaviour without having 10-20 years of price history and we're in a bull market end game which could unfold over the next year. An unprecedented secular bull market negates all previously reliable expectations for volatility reversion and derivatives pricing.
The strategy that has paid off has been the most straightforward "buy the dip" which, even in clumsy hands, becomes "buy high, sell higher."
I'd advise against "day trading" especially in unknowables like $RIVN. The only plausible "strategy" for Rivian is an understanding of its business, its market opportunity and the strength of its funding to executive a 5-10 year plan to be a top 3 electric vehicle manufacturer (cars, vans, buses, boats, maybe planes and trains) with the potential to expand into commercial and industrial, static power systems, grids, mobile disaster recovery power systems … and they have the world's largest and most diverse customer already in a deep partnership ready to order in a magnitude that will allow any product to be successful and with the funding to be able to succeed in manufacturing products which we simply don't yet know how to scale (although Tesla has done a lot of the heavy lifting) or how to overcome the adversaries in the oil industry and their allies in corrupt governments.

plan A: accumulate a large, single position:
I doubt there's sufficient sellers below the IPO price or the first trade price to offer buyers the option to establish positions a lower prices. For now, I'll continue to accumulate by selling options on both sides. As $RIVN stabilizes, over the next year, I'll start selling $TSLA and $AAPL to increase my weight in $RIVN.

0 - 5 years:
There's always a high risk-reward proposition to be treated seriously. From raw materials to government interference, the EV industry will continue to experience growing pains. I don't see anything in the foreseeable to suggest Rivian can fail. It can fail incrementally, it can take even longer than expected, a factory could be damaged by a tornado or catch fire, unions could tangle with corporations anywhere in the supply chain, etc.
I think the sense of urgency in the auto industry is real and Rivian is years ahead of other startups; the question remains as to whether Ford, VW, Toyota or even GM could shift enough billions of capital into production of vehicles the consumer wants. I see BYD, Xpeng and other car makers in China as stronger competitors to Tesla. I see China as an inevitable next market expansion for Rivian.

5-10 years:
I don't see how an expanding market can result in Rivian being obstructed by Tesla or BYD for example. I'm expecting Rivian to start reporting impressive numbers when it closes the first quarter of producing vans for Amazon. Buyers – institutional and retail – will be energetically chasing performance. So long as Rivian doesn't have a mad king for a CEO, we should see a stable price growth curve for $RIVN. I have no reason to expect 1000% returns, I'll be completely satisfied with $RIVN out-performing the benchmark and being amongst the top 5 in the EV market, which I think revolves around battery manufacturing – the EV competitors with the best (integrated) battery production will be the leaders, the EV makers sourcing their batteries from multiple suppliers will be the second tier and the EV makers with niche sources (e.g. Porsche, Rimac and the boutique brands of VW) will be relegated to the niches.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla "spin off" car manufacturing and have separate business for batteries, for energy grid systems, and separately for the business of building gigafactories for other industries outside the auto industry (aerospace, tunneling.) If and when Tesla invents profitable business models in other industries, Amazon/Rivian will be well positioned (technological leadership with in-house genius innovation, and infinite capital reserves) to pursue Tesla into those new markets. So, maybe I do expect 1000% returns …
 

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There's no way of predicting 5-10 year price behaviour without having 10-20 years of price history and we're in a bull market end game which could unfold over the next year. An unprecedented secular bull market negates all previously reliable expectations for volatility reversion and derivatives pricing.
The strategy that has paid off has been the most straightforward "buy the dip" which, even in clumsy hands, becomes "buy high, sell higher."
I'd advise against "day trading" especially in unknowables like $RIVN. The only plausible "strategy" for Rivian is an understanding of its business, its market opportunity and the strength of its funding to executive a 5-10 year plan to be a top 3 electric vehicle manufacturer (cars, vans, buses, boats, maybe planes and trains) with the potential to expand into commercial and industrial, static power systems, grids, mobile disaster recovery power systems … and they have the world's largest and most diverse customer already in a deep partnership ready to order in a magnitude that will allow any product to be successful and with the funding to be able to succeed in manufacturing products which we simply don't yet know how to scale (although Tesla has done a lot of the heavy lifting) or how to overcome the adversaries in the oil industry and their allies in corrupt governments.

plan A: accumulate a large, single position:
I doubt there's sufficient sellers below the IPO price or the first trade price to offer buyers the option to establish positions a lower prices. For now, I'll continue to accumulate by selling options on both sides. As $RIVN stabilizes, over the next year, I'll start selling $TSLA and $AAPL to increase my weight in $RIVN.

0 - 5 years:
There's always a high risk-reward proposition to be treated seriously. From raw materials to government interference, the EV industry will continue to experience growing pains. I don't see anything in the foreseeable to suggest Rivian can fail. It can fail incrementally, it can take even longer than expected, a factory could be damaged by a tornado or catch fire, unions could tangle with corporations anywhere in the supply chain, etc.
I think the sense of urgency in the auto industry is real and Rivian is years ahead of other startups; the question remains as to whether Ford, VW, Toyota or even GM could shift enough billions of capital into production of vehicles the consumer wants. I see BYD, Xpeng and other car makers in China as stronger competitors to Tesla. I see China as an inevitable next market expansion for Rivian.

5-10 years:
I don't see how an expanding market can result in Rivian being obstructed by Tesla or BYD for example. I'm expecting Rivian to start reporting impressive numbers when it closes the first quarter of producing vans for Amazon. Buyers – institutional and retail – will be energetically chasing performance. So long as Rivian doesn't have a mad king for a CEO, we should see a stable price growth curve for $RIVN. I have no reason to expect 1000% returns, I'll be completely satisfied with $RIVN out-performing the benchmark and being amongst the top 5 in the EV market, which I think revolves around battery manufacturing – the EV competitors with the best (integrated) battery production will be the leaders, the EV makers sourcing their batteries from multiple suppliers will be the second tier and the EV makers with niche sources (e.g. Porsche, Rimac and the boutique brands of VW) will be relegated to the niches.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla "spin off" car manufacturing and have separate business for batteries, for energy grid systems, and separately for the business of building gigafactories for other industries outside the auto industry (aerospace, tunneling.) If and when Tesla invents profitable business models in other industries, Amazon/Rivian will be well positioned (technological leadership with in-house genius innovation, and infinite capital reserves) to pursue Tesla into those new markets. So, maybe I do expect 1000% returns …
T.L.W.D.

I love your dissertation and need to consider all that you laid out. You're clearly light-years ahead of where I am in considering all aspects of how best to analyze Rivian's future.

I'm still just really wondering more about where the stock will go in the next 5-10 years.

I wish we could break bread together and discuss all in greater detail. I truly appreciate all of the insights you presented above.

Thank you and the best of everything to you and yours for the Holidays. I may reach out privately with other questions over the next few days. I'd love to learn more about your take on things.

Take care and enjoy!
 

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the long way downunder

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T.L.W.D.

I love your dissertation and need to consider all that you laid out. You're clearly light-years ahead of where I am in considering all aspects of how best to analyze Rivian's future.

I'm still just really wondering more about where the stock will go in the next 5-10 years.

I wish we could break bread together and discuss all in greater detail. I truly appreciate all of the insights you presented above.

Thank you and the best of everything to you and yours for the Holidays. I may reach out privately with other questions over the next few days. I'd love to learn more about your take on things.

Take care and enjoy!
tlwd? google says that means tailwind? : )
As for the next 5-10 years, all that said, I plan on accumulating what's called a "large single position" (larger than any single uncorrelated position in a diversified portfolio) in $RIVN. If I could buy that whole position today at $80, I'd do it. I have an order in the market (since the first day of trading) in case that price is touched.
For example, for every $100K, at present, I have over $50K in $GOOG, averaging $5K to $10K in $AAPL, $AMZN, $TSLA and so on, down to $2K in crypto (bitcoin, ethereum and a basket of "see what happens with crypto" all using tastyworks (the cheapest way to trade crypto without ripoff fees from coinbase) p.s. I also hold about $2K of $COIN by selling short strangles.) I expect o bring my $RIVN up from today (less than $1K) to about $10K … yep, equal to my expectations for long term AAPL, GOOG, TSLA, FB, AMZN.

While my post might read like a "dissertation" it originates from emails I share with friends on topics ranging from Tesla to Crypto to "when will this bull market crash?" topics. I've found it a valuable practice to commit my thoughts to writing, so I can review the year and see where I made good sense and where I completely failed to estimated the real impact (e.g. covid in Feb '20 … if you read my comparison of covid to the wildfires in Australia from that period, clearly I was discounting the information I already had from Italy (where we first saw the s hit the f with pandemic lockdowns) and being distracted by the visual horror of the wildfires devastating areas of Australia so large as to be difficult to comprehend.) So I'll be reviewing my notes from xmas 2021 every month and trying to learn from my mistakes. I don't think any capital I put into $RIVN will be a mistake, I just don't see how they can "go to zero." I'm glad I was circumspect and didn't "chase performance" (buy $RIVN as it raced over $110 to $170+) nor do I regret not selling my IPO stock when it was at $175. There was simply never a reason to say $200 was more or less likely than $150. Also, most of the large price changes in $RIVN have been in the context of the whole market selling or buying, or the effect of Tesla and Musk being such visible spectacles.

sidenote on day-trading and gambling:
I do not have enough of a position to benefit from selling 10 shares or 100 shares at $175 and buying back at … $170? … $150? What does that profit? 10 shares at a $25 gain? $250? By what rules of business am I "profiting" that $250? After I sell 10 shares or 100 shares and buy back at $150 to pocket $2500 … when do I sell or buy next? $150? $200? It's foolish to imagine the investor or trader has any say in the future price of a stock. If I buy back at $150, in the example of $RIVN, I see the position cut in half to $80. If I don't buy back, I no longer have a position in $RIVN and any uptick is an unsolvable dilemma or "buy now or wait for a lower price?" so I risk perhaps missing out on a rally to $200 and relegating myself to "coulda, shoulda, woulda" … That's just gambling and luck (good or bad.) If the intent is to hold a position, trading should be done using derivatives, not the underlying stock. In this way, market dynamics (volatility) and price behavior are a statistical business, not an emotional reaction, and certainly not pretending to know what the future will bring. I will benefit in 2030 and beyond by accumulating 1000 shares or 10,000 shares in $RIVN over the next year or three. Given the funding of Rivian coming from giants, I'm prepared to take a large slice of my capital and hitch my little red wagon to the back of their freight trains. Rivian is one of those trains. : )
 

mkg3

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tlwd? google says that means tailwind? : )
As for the next 5-10 years, all that said, I plan on accumulating what's called a "large single position" (larger than any single uncorrelated position in a diversified portfolio) in $RIVN. If I could buy that whole position today at $80, I'd do it. I have an order in the market (since the first day of trading) in case that price is touched.
For example, for every $100K, at present, I have over $50K in $GOOG, averaging $5K to $10K in $AAPL, $AMZN, $TSLA and so on, down to $2K in crypto (bitcoin, ethereum and a basket of "see what happens with crypto" all using tastyworks (the cheapest way to trade crypto without ripoff fees from coinbase) p.s. I also hold about $2K of $COIN by selling short strangles.) I expect o bring my $RIVN up from today (less than $1K) to about $10K … yep, equal to my expectations for long term AAPL, GOOG, TSLA, FB, AMZN.

While my post might read like a "dissertation" it originates from emails I share with friends on topics ranging from Tesla to Crypto to "when will this bull market crash?" topics. I've found it a valuable practice to commit my thoughts to writing, so I can review the year and see where I made good sense and where I completely failed to estimated the real impact (e.g. covid in Feb '20 … if you read my comparison of covid to the wildfires in Australia from that period, clearly I was discounting the information I already had from Italy (where we first saw the s hit the f with pandemic lockdowns) and being distracted by the visual horror of the wildfires devastating areas of Australia so large as to be difficult to comprehend.) So I'll be reviewing my notes from xmas 2021 every month and trying to learn from my mistakes. I don't think any capital I put into $RIVN will be a mistake, I just don't see how they can "go to zero." I'm glad I was circumspect and didn't "chase performance" (buy $RIVN as it raced over $110 to $170+) nor do I regret not selling my IPO stock when it was at $175. There was simply never a reason to say $200 was more or less likely than $150. Also, most of the large price changes in $RIVN have been in the context of the whole market selling or buying, or the effect of Tesla and Musk being such visible spectacles.

sidenote on day-trading and gambling:
I do not have enough of a position to benefit from selling 10 shares or 100 shares at $175 and buying back at … $170? … $150? What does that profit? 10 shares at a $25 gain? $250? By what rules of business am I "profiting" that $250? After I sell 10 shares or 100 shares and buy back at $150 to pocket $2500 … when do I sell or buy next? $150? $200? It's foolish to imagine the investor or trader has any say in the future price of a stock. If I buy back at $150, in the example of $RIVN, I see the position cut in half to $80. If I don't buy back, I no longer have a position in $RIVN and any uptick is an unsolvable dilemma or "buy now or wait for a lower price?" so I risk perhaps missing out on a rally to $200 and relegating myself to "coulda, shoulda, woulda" … That's just gambling and luck (good or bad.) If the intent is to hold a position, trading should be done using derivatives, not the underlying stock. In this way, market dynamics (volatility) and price behavior are a statistical business, not an emotional reaction, and certainly not pretending to know what the future will bring. I will benefit in 2030 and beyond by accumulating 1000 shares or 10,000 shares in $RIVN over the next year or three. Given the funding of Rivian coming from giants, I'm prepared to take a large slice of my capital and hitch my little red wagon to the back of their freight trains. Rivian is one of those trains. : )
A different perspective on this subject.

I bought Tesla shares (pre 1:5 split) shortly after their IPO and bought and sold their shares at various points as prices fluctuated significantly. Thereafter, I bought back in about a year before split and sold 1/3 of my total Tesla shares near the high this year. It is one of my core holdings today, but it wasn't at the same point Rivian is today.

The point is just buying and holding a new company like Rivian believing that its a great investment (e.g., Apple, Microsoft) is not a good strategy in my opinion. I am just a private investor and not a trader or advisor. Just a stock picker in the areas I understand.

The way I look at all the EV startups today is very similar to early 1900's when there were lots and lots of automakers. Vast majority of them failed or got bought out by the time WW2 came, and further consolidated into the 50's.

None of us know where Rivian will end up. If they fail for some reason, it is all likely that Amazon would just take them over and retain its name. It is also possible that one of the majors (GM, F, Stellantis or Daimler, VW, Geely) would sweep in to take over so the brand will exist but the equity will not at that point. If lucky, Rivian would sell itself with premium before having to have a fire sale.
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