Sponsored

Where Does Rivian Go From Here: Future Talk

Coast2Coast

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Feb 17, 2020
Threads
26
Messages
451
Reaction score
564
Location
Santa Cruz, Ca./Odawara, Jpn
Vehicles
1981 Volvo wagn; 2006 Tacoma SR5; 2021 Toy Mirai
Rivian's future is endlessly fascinating and it's been touched on in many threads & posts. It might be good to pull all that together and organize it. I think there are 4-5 topic areas: 1) upcoming vehicles, 2) finances, 3) international expansion, 4) branding, and 5) whatever you guys think might warrant future thinking.

Upcoming vehicles. I saw the concept of the new Nissan Ariya at last year's Tokyo Auto Show. Here it is in a great color, one I wish was in Rivian's palette.
https://www.autoweek.com/news/green...ver-lands-here-next-year-with-300-mile-range/

It's not so different in size from pictures we've seen of a downsized, Baja-ready, follow-on vehicle to the R1S. It's been suggested by RJ the new generation of people carrying Rivians will be downsized R1Ts and R1Ss. I'm good with that, but mid-sized CUVs, SUVs and pickups will become hotly contested markets. Rivians could stand out at the high-end of the market, but the mid-priced, broad middle of the market will be a tough place to stand out and make money.

On the other hand, the commercial BEV market, both for carrying people and packages, is wide open though, undoubtedly, Chevy, Dodge, Ford, Mercedes and others, have their eyes on it. But Rivian has an order for 100,000 commercial vans in three different sizes. It would be a mistake not to leverage that into a big presence in the van market. However, once again, the question is what segment or segments of the commercial van market should Rivian target?

So, projecting out to 2025, it's likely there will be 4 people carrying Rivians, full and medium size R1Ts and R1Ss, and 3 sizes of "commercial," Amazon-based vans. 7 new vehicles in 4 years is a lot to design, engineer, develop, test, produce and market, even if the first 2 or 3 are well down that development path.

Finances. Rivian has more than enough funds to bring the first 2 or 3 vehicles, R1T, R1S and first Amazon vans, to market and to engineer and ready for production a second generation of vehicles. It's what comes next that is fascinating.

In terms of finances, Rivian can stay private or go public, and both have advantages and disadvantages. If Rivian wants to be a high-end, fairly low volume maker - think BMW or Volvo before it was acquired - it can do that with private funding, and it's probably better off being privately held. Less fuss, less muss, less time spent on governance issues. But if Rivian wants to go big in terms of volume, markets and global clout, it's almost inevitable it will go public.

It's akin to Tesla's situation. If Tesla wanted to stop with the Model S, X and maybe another vehicle, it could have done so with private funding. Elon is one of the richest men in the world and he could have pulled it off with private funding. But recall that Tesla has not yet made a profit on an annualized basis. Of course Tesla's been expanding like crazy and that takes a ton of investment, but you get my point. The choice is how big is big enough? Another is, what do RJ and core shareholders want? In sum, there's enough money for the next 3-4 years. How much more is needed depends on how much more Rivian wants to do.

International Expansion. The same questions apply: how big is big enough and what does Rivian want to be? With a N. American trade agreement in place, expansion into Canada and Mexico is a given although how this will be done is not a given. Another plant, engineering offices, locations? The biggest BEV market in the world is China and, overall, Asia is the largest market in the world for any sort of commercial product. Timing of entry into different Asian markets may be tricky, but there's no doubt the market is huge. The European market, including both EU and non-EU countries, is the second largest in the world. So, the question of international expansion doubles back to the questions above. How big a player in the global auto market does Rivian want to be?

Branding. And at the risk of sounding like a broken record, how big a player does Rivian want to be? And as I've posted elsewhere, what implications does this have for branding? So far, Rivian has chosen a fairly specialized market niche - high performance, off- and on-road capable, adventure vehicles. Once Amazon vans start rolling of the line, that fairly specialized niche gets diluted. Amazon vans by Rivian? Rivian vans for Amazon? As others on this forum have said, if the vans are going to have kinetic hydraulic, air suspension with four motors, heck give me that and I'll customize it myself.

I like the notion of different lines of Rivian vehicles: Rivian Adventure, Rivian Commercial and Rivian Custom. But this could turn into a sales, warranty and service nightmare, if it's all part of one company. Does Rivian set up separate companies for separate sorts of vehicles? A different sort of headache, but one that takes Rivian in a very different direction than the "Keep the World Adventurous Forever" Rivian we signed up for.

Whatever Else Warrants Attention. I've chosen to stay away from issues of technology, government policies, climate crisis and so on. I'm assuming Rivian will push ahead on battery technology, autonomous driving, connectivity and the like.

While it will do a lot of development on its own, obviously the key issue is strategic partnerships with leading companies and organizations at the forefront of these technologies and matters. The bigger and more clout Rivian has, the better its opportunities in terms of development and supply partners. And no matter how altruistic your intentions, in the end everyone wants to make money. So it's almost inevitable that Rivian will want to grow and that will take a lot of money, and the best strategic partners will want to grow and that will take lots of money, and so on.

The pressure to do something fast is considerable. There are so-called first mover advantages, but there is also something called the "bleeding edge" as opposed to the leading edge. Being first just to be first isn't really all that smart. So far, Rivian has been extraordinary patient and "quiet". Can that continue?

But this is where I shut up and you jump in, if you're so inclined.
Sponsored

 
Last edited:

DucRider

Well-Known Member
First Name
Gary
Joined
Oct 21, 2019
Threads
17
Messages
1,652
Reaction score
3,143
Location
ORegon
Vehicles
Polestar 2, Ioniq, R1S
RJ reset from the sports car due to "thinking too small" and "we can do more". That coupled with some of the other vision statements about climate change and the need to move away from fossil fuels don't suggest they want to be a niche player.

I expect that they will go public at some point, and the promise of that likely helped them to bring in some of the talent they have been able to recruit.

The Adventurous" branding can be brushed on most any vehicle class. Two examples are Subaru with it's sedans and Porsche has SUV/CUVs/4 passenger sedans that still align with their original niche images.
 

Mjhirsch78

Well-Known Member
First Name
Matt
Joined
Aug 29, 2019
Threads
6
Messages
505
Reaction score
1,212
Location
Union, Washington
Vehicles
Honda Odyssey became an R1T: MAGIC!
Occupation
Teacher
China has a lot of people, but how big is the truck market there? As far as I can find, Western Europe also doesn’t seem to have the same large vehicle market (trucks and such). So it seems they would need smaller vehicles before they would push into those markets.
 

jjwolf120

Well-Known Member
First Name
John
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Threads
1
Messages
781
Reaction score
1,121
Location
Arcadia
Vehicles
Rivian R1S
Occupation
TPA
European's don't buy many pickups, but they buy a large number of transit vans.
 
OP
OP
Coast2Coast

Coast2Coast

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Feb 17, 2020
Threads
26
Messages
451
Reaction score
564
Location
Santa Cruz, Ca./Odawara, Jpn
Vehicles
1981 Volvo wagn; 2006 Tacoma SR5; 2021 Toy Mirai
Vans, flatbeds and people carriers are big in the rest the world, not so much SUVs and pickups. All of them can be BEV powered. The question is which segments to pursue after the initial 6 or 7 vehicles already earmarked by Rivian are in production.
Sponsored

 
 




Top