What's Your Rivian Stock Price Forecast - IPO + 7 days, 90 days, 1 year?

[Redline]

Well we just flew past that double IPO level.

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[3l3c7r1c]

Well we just flew past that double IPO level.

Whatever happening is making me little uncomfortable. Remember Rivian also have to foot the cost of employee stock based compensation. They probably already have some stocks in hand, so no real cash expense, but still those will show up as compensation cost in accounting. Because it is still an opportunity cost.

Just sold 75 stocks to minimize regret. Going to keep 100 for long term.

 

[Dbeglor]

Well we just flew past that double IPO level.

This is disappointing for those that wanted to continue investing.

 

[Redline]

This is disappointing for those that wanted to continue investing.

How is that disappointing? Haha.

 

[Dbeglor]

How is that disappointing? Haha.

Because if you're buying something you generally want a lower price not a higher one. If you didn't already own a house, the craziness in that market over the past year or so is equally disappointing for someone trying to buy one.

The stock price in 3, 5 or 7+ years has no correlation to what it is today, so I'd rather buy low. Pretty simple.

It means that retail investors are paying twice as much as the stock is worth, having just been fully vetted and valued a week ago.

 

[Redline]

Because if you're buying something you generally want a lower price not a higher one. If you didn't already own a house, the craziness in that market over the past year or so is equally disappointing for someone trying to buy one.

The stock price in 3, 5 or 7+ years has no correlation to what it is today, so I'd rather buy low. Pretty simple.

It means that retail investors are paying twice as much as the stock is worth, having just been fully vetted and valued a week ago.

The public had a chance to buy it at $100. I don't feel bad for anyone. This is a classic example of the stock market for those who don't understand it though.

Stocks too much here. Goes up 20%. Oh shoot I should have bought back then. Rinse, repeat.

 

[Dbeglor]

The public had a chance to buy it at $100. I don't feel bad for anyone. This is a classic example of the stock market for those who don't understand it though.

Stocks too much here. Goes up 20%. Oh shoot I should have bought back then. Rinse, repeat.

You're still not understanding my point. I bought the full 175 shares at $78 in the IPO. That's great. However, that was limited to 175 shares. If I am in the accumulation phase of life, investing more dollars into assets, I want the price to be lower, not higher. As an investor, I'm hoping that there will be disappointment from the production update we all get, sending the stock price lower so that I can invest at a lower price.

Additionally, the ultimate goal of a business is to produce cash that is distributed to the owners of the business. While this company is not doing that, for obvious reasons, someday in the future they will. So, as I'm building ownership in the company, I want to aggregate a higher % of ownership of whatever that future cash flow distribution will be. If I have a fixed amount of money I'm investing over time, I want the lowest price per share possible on that investment so that my share of that cash flow is the highest it can be. This premise is extended to all stocks/assets, not just this one.

That being said, if the 175 shares I already purchased was a one and one event and is the last I plan to invest, well then sure higher the better.

I fully understand the stock market and investing, as I have an advanced education in it, and it is my profession. However, this is more of a behavioral psychology issue than a technical investing one.

 

[Ralph]

However, this is more of a behavioral psychology issue than a technical investing one.

Analysts leaning technical often get "caught out" in the market, and life in general, by information not modeled, including behavioral psychology. Even when they have "unlimited" funds.

 

[Dbeglor]

Analysts leaning technical often get "caught out" in the market, and life in general, by information not modeled, including behavioral psychology. Even when they have "unlimited" funds.

It's a truly strange phenomenon. People will trample others at Walmart to save 10% on a children's toy, but they think higher prices in stocks are a good thing even though they are buyers not sellers.

 

[Mister Person]

It means that retail investors are paying twice as much as the stock is worth, having just been fully vetted and valued a week ago.

Don't forget that the price target was raised twice in the days preceding the IPO. It went from 58-62 to 68-72 to 78. So demand was increasing even before trading commenced.

 

[Forager]

Whatever happening is making me little uncomfortable. Remember Rivian also have to foot the cost of employee stock based compensation. They probably already have some stocks in hand, so no real cash expense, but still those will show up as compensation cost in accounting. Because it is still an opportunity cost.

Just sold 75 stocks to minimize regret. Going to keep 100 for long term.

I don’t fully understand your concern. Rivian retains all unsold stock. The stock they provide employees as compensation is not bought from the open market, rather is awarded from their unsold “chest” of money. For the last year, new employees were being awarded restricted stock units on the basis of a $20-27b valuation with the promise that it would be worth 3x that at IPO. When the initial stock price was set, it was just a 2x multiple of what they had sold many new employees on. I think some of the initial upward pressure to get to $78 IPO price was just as much from bankers as it was internal pressure to deliver on this promise.

Anyway, now that RIVN is trading over $150, it represents a 5-6x multiple of what employees’ awards were based on. This vests over 4 years, so as long as the stock price is steady it means Rivian has “overfunded” their employees and Rivian will be far less likely to give any bonuses or raises —that’s how Amazon does it. The other factor at play here is that Rivian can award LESS shares to new employees to get to the same total INITIAL compensation as an old employee. So, whereas an old employee would get 1000 RSU valued at $27,000 the new guy gets 250 RSU valued at $27,000. The fact that the old guy’s stock is now worth $150k is immaterial, that’s how the game is played in the tech world. That’s also a big factor why so many former Tesla employees have found their way to Rivian, and why so many Rivian employees will find their way to the next big startup in 5-6 years.

 

[Dbeglor]

Don't forget that the price target was raised twice in the days preceding the IPO. It went from 58-62 to 68-72 to 78. So demand was increasing even before trading commenced.

Sure, but it was also lowered before it was raised, and ended up slightly lower than they initially targeted. I suspect it was lowered strategically, to drive competition and price back up.

Regardless, $78 was where the negotiation ended and value was established by the very investors that knew/know more than anyone what it is worth, as they were already investors and had access to information everyone else didn't. It's the most credible opinion of true value we have at this moment in time.

 

[MIG]

I fully understand the stock market and investing,

You would be the first.

 

[JerseyGreens]

Sure, but it was also lowered before it was raised, and ended up slightly lower than they initially targeted. I suspect it was lowered strategically, to drive competition and price back up.

Regardless, $78 was where the negotiation ended and value was established by the very investors that knew/know more than anyone what it is worth, as they were already investors and had access to information everyone else didn't. It's the most credible opinion of true value we have at this moment in time.

If I understand correctly, are you having FOMO for not buying more shares at $100? Those are valid feelings but just keep an eye on the stock and prepare yourself to buy when it hits a limit which is of interest.

 

[rajasaab]

Just sold my DSP ..doubled my money. It was too hard to pass up 100% returns in 5 trading days. Will buy the dip if/when it happens

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