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What's Your Rivian Stock Price Forecast - IPO + 7 days, 90 days, 1 year?

JerseyGreens

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Apparently, CS is guiding people to 2024 for new orders, so I think we're going to see some explosive preorder number growth whenever they report them next.
Let's hope it's that versus Rivian not being to scale up quickly enough to meet demand.
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yizzung

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Sell limit at $175 now and it might trigger before the market closes today. Will hold the net to reinvest when it settles back down.
Congrats if it goes through. Almost a $20K discount on your Rivian… :)
 
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JerseyGreens

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Congrats if it goes through. Almost a $20K discount on your Rivian… :)
Assuming his tax bracket huh! ?

I bought 144 at post IPO shares...don't know how much longer I can watch this craze!
 

Dbeglor

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Let's hope it's that versus Rivian not being to scale up quickly enough to meet demand.
Well, that's exactly what it means when an order placed today will get delivered more than two years out.

But I don't think anything has changed in their ramp expectations. It's orders getting piled on top of orders.

The value of the free advertising they are getting right now is staggering. Ironically, the more ridiculous the stock is valued, the more it's in the press, the more orders come in, the more ridiculous (or is it less??) the valuation gets.
 

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MIG

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This is what I would have guessed too, so I figured I’d buy the dip. Looks like I may need to wait awhile before reality brings the stock down a bit.
If we were dealing with reality the stock would be somewhere near $5. We're well into surreality. It's a fool's errand to try and rationalize this market. This is no different than GameStop mania, just with bigger wallets.
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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Congrats if it goes through. Almost a $20K discount on your Rivian… :)
I wish! I didnt have the portfolio to go whole hog on the 175 and only sold half my shares. hopefully I can reinvest them closer to $100 later on.
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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Well, that's exactly what it means when an order placed today will get delivered more than two years out.

But I don't think anything has changed in their ramp expectations. It's orders getting piled on top of orders.

The value of the free advertising they are getting right now is staggering. Ironically, the more ridiculous the stock is valued, the more it's in the press, the more orders come in, the more ridiculous (or is it less??) the valuation gets.
Yeah it's sort of turning into a self fulfilling prophecy right? I wouldn't discount the affect that the stock price is having on orders, as people who were probably on the fence about buying from a startup now feel confident in Rivian's chances of success based on their IPO performance. That drives more orders, which drives the stock price up, which drives more orders.

It will level out at some point, but when is anyone's guess.
 

JerseyGreens

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If we were dealing with reality the stock would be somewhere near $5. We're well into surreality. It's a fool's errand to try and rationalize this market. This is no different than GameStop mania, just with bigger wallets.
GameStop was the WallStreetBets effect ...
RIVN is the Bezos effect ...
 

Dbeglor

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If we were dealing with reality the stock would be somewhere near $5. We're well into surreality. It's a fool's errand to try and rationalize this market. This is no different than GameStop mania, just with bigger wallets.
Whoa, wait a minute, let's not get too crazy in the other direction. You think a company with physical assets (EV facility up and running, worth several billion dollars), IP and $16B worth of cash should only be worth $4.25B? Even if they were a complete fraud they are worth $20B now that the IPO handed them that cash (technically in that case there would be legal claims, but you get the point). Don't you think Ford/GM/Toyota/Tesla/Lucid/etc. would pay quite a bit more than that to buy it outright?
 

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It's totally okay to make a little cash now and move on to the next...that is a valid/smart strategy. My problem is I struggle to pick the next one! ha ha. Another strategy is buy and hold also valid/smart. $10K in Tesla 10 years ago would be worth $1.8M today. If Rivian hits 30% of Tesla I'm good with it! Some people made a little on Tesla up front. Some made a lot of money long term and many more just watched. This is all about person preference, risk tolerance and investment objectives. In this case everyone is right.
When I was trying to decide on DSP participation my financial guy said "You are buying an $80K truck from these guys but you won't buy 175 shares of their stock?" So I bough it.... If Rivian goes under and I own one the 175 DSP shares won't be my biggest problem.
Personally I am parking the investment for 5-7 years min and whatever happens happens. I am betting they will do okay. Just my two cents. I never assume anyone. shares my opinion but if you invest in anything make sure you have some type of strategy that works for you.
 

JerseyGreens

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I'll add that I believe many people are waiting to buy the proverbial dip when it comes to RIVN, myself included. I saved a predetermined amount of money for RIVN when I made my preorder (2019), however, I had cold feet on day one and didn't spend all of my funds on it... Buying into the mentality that it will dip down below IPO levels...well...about...that...
 

MilliM

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Exactly this....I KNOW with certainty that it will be a bumpy ride, and have extreme confidence it will trade lower than where we are today at some point in the coming year (probably the coming weeks), but I'm already sitting on too much cash and don't know what I'd do w/ it. My plan has been to at least hold this as long as I own my yet-to-be-delivered R1S, and since it's the first time I've ever bought IPO shares, I'm already nostalgic about buying and holding for years to come.

Traders will most likely win the IRR game given how crazy the valuation is today, but I'm going to sit back and enjoy the rollercoaster over the coming years.

Personally I am parking the investment for 5-7 years min and whatever happens happens. I am betting they will do okay. Just my two cents. I never assume anyone. shares my opinion but if you invest in anything make sure you have some type of strategy that works for you.
 

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I agree with lots of the above. This is crazy. Logic would say sell. But I told my wife I'm holding mine until the battery on my R1S is out of warranty, which is s00n + 10 years...
 

yizzung

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Assuming his tax bracket huh! ?

I bought 144 at post IPO shares...don't know how much longer I can watch this craze!
Oh I just assumed that he’s got carry over losses from big commercial real estate deals gone sideways in the 80s. That’s how all the big boys do it, anyway. So I hear… ;)
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