What's Your Rivian Stock Price Forecast - IPO + 7 days, 90 days, 1 year?

[Diddy123]

Just sold my DSP ..doubled my money. It was too hard to pass up 100% returns in 5 trading days.

Less short-term gains tax...

But I agree, it is tempting.

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[yizzung]

Sure, but it was also lowered before it was raised, and ended up slightly lower than they initially targeted. I suspect it was lowered strategically, to drive competition and price back up.

Regardless, $78 was where the negotiation ended and value was established by the very investors that knew/know more than anyone what it is worth, as they were already investors and had access to information everyone else didn't. It's the most credible opinion of true value we have at this moment in time.

You're still not understanding my point. I bought the full 175 shares at $78 in the IPO. That's great. However, that was limited to 175 shares. If I am in the accumulation phase of life, investing more dollars into assets, I want the price to be lower, not higher. As an investor, I'm hoping that there will be disappointment from the production update we all get, sending the stock price lower so that I can invest at a lower price.

Additionally, the ultimate goal of a business is to produce cash that is distributed to the owners of the business. While this company is not doing that, for obvious reasons, someday in the future they will. So, as I'm building ownership in the company, I want to aggregate a higher % of ownership of whatever that future cash flow distribution will be. If I have a fixed amount of money I'm investing over time, I want the lowest price per share possible on that investment so that my share of that cash flow is the highest it can be. This premise is extended to all stocks/assets, not just this one.

That being said, if the 175 shares I already purchased was a one and one event and is the last I plan to invest, well then sure higher the better.

I fully understand the stock market and investing, as I have an advanced education in it, and it is my profession. However, this is more of a behavioral psychology issue than a technical investing one.

Sure. Everyone prefers to buy at the bottom. Problem is, nobody knows where or when it is. Some on here suggested that they were going to skip the DSP altogether and buy on the dip that they confidently predicted was coming. Guess they are still waiting... In any event, I wouldn't affix too much credibility to the "worth" assigned by the underwriters. IPOs have been routinely underpriced for decades for myriad reasons so what we're currently seeing (especially given frothy values everywhere) is not unprecedented.

 

[rajasaab]

Less short-term gains tax...

But I agree, it is tempting.

death and taxes baby....for us - the little people.. but 80% is still not bad. Money I didn't have 5 days ago and money I now have towards my buy RIVN or R1S fund (whichever comes first ))

 

[Trandall]

You're still not understanding my point. I bought the full 175 shares at $78 in the IPO. That's great. However, that was limited to 175 shares. If I am in the accumulation phase of life, investing more dollars into assets, I want the price to be lower, not higher. As an investor, I'm hoping that there will be disappointment from the production update we all get, sending the stock price lower so that I can invest at a lower price.

Additionally, the ultimate goal of a business is to produce cash that is distributed to the owners of the business. While this company is not doing that, for obvious reasons, someday in the future they will. So, as I'm building ownership in the company, I want to aggregate a higher % of ownership of whatever that future cash flow distribution will be. If I have a fixed amount of money I'm investing over time, I want the lowest price per share possible on that investment so that my share of that cash flow is the highest it can be. This premise is extended to all stocks/assets, not just this one.

That being said, if the 175 shares I already purchased was a one and one event and is the last I plan to invest, well then sure higher the better.

I fully understand the stock market and investing, as I have an advanced education in it, and it is my profession. However, this is more of a behavioral psychology issue than a technical investing one.

My behavioral psychology (nor my technical investing) do not have this logic. I don't care if my 1 share increases 10,000 % or my 10,000 shares increase 100% either way I made the same money. I don't care about the voting power of my shares I'm not wealthy and want the revenue.
Now is it more likely that 10,000 shares go up 100% than the latter, probably, but that still does not warrant wishing the stock that I own lower.
Do I agree with the current valuation based on stock price... that is a different question... and irrelevant as the market decides the value just as it does for fiat currency, and whatever the latest canine cryptocurrency craze is.

 

[nc10]

IPOs have been routinely underpriced for decades for myriad reasons so what we're currently seeing (especially given frothy values everywhere) is not unprecedented.

From your link
" This translates to more than $125 billion that companies have left on the table in the last 20 years."

This does seem unprecedented, doesn't it? Rivian alone had a gain of something more than $75 billion dollars of market value within one week after an IPO, virtually no sales or revenue, we only have a really hazy view of possible revenue growth, and as best I can tell, no earnings or cash flow forecasts (pls correct me if these exist). I think it resets thinking for future IPO's in cutting edge industries. Automakers will think about EV spinoffs, or some play that lets them value EV businesses as standalone units.

 

[R1T_Observer]

Having said what I did yesterday and seeing what happened today, the scariest thing today is simply due to what I had to live through before; it's reminceint of 2001-2002. By 3/2002, I was unemployed for 8 months, my 401k's, all 4 of them, sank some 40-50%. The dot-com bubble burst.

Today, that feeling kicked in again. However, unlike this new decade, we were ill prepared and other factors were involved ( 911 as one example that put us in active war ). I weathered the next drop better in 2008-2010 as I finally figured out how to invest better (not ALL tech... yeah, I was that guy). Will it happen soon? Dooms-dayers agree we're in for a big pull back... I say, go ahead. We need a correction, but the environment of 2021/2022 is a lot different; our technology has finally matured; it was NOT mature back in 2001. So I'm hopeful, but braced for impact; always have a sturdy portoflio and maybe it needs repeating: cash is a position in any portoflio.

 

[Dbeglor]

My behavioral psychology (nor my technical investing) do not have this logic. I don't care if my 1 share increases 10,000 % or my 10,000 shares increase 100% either way I made the same money. I don't care about the voting power of my shares I'm not wealthy and want the revenue.
Now is it more likely that 10,000 shares go up 100% than the latter, probably, but that still does not warrant wishing the stock that I own lower.
Do I agree with the current valuation based on stock price... that is a different question... and irrelevant as the market decides the value just as it does for fiat currency, and whatever the latest canine cryptocurrency craze is.

What I was trying to convey is that when, somewhere down the line, Rivan distributes $100 to shareholders (which is unrelated to the stock price), do you want to own more shares or less shares, for the same amount of dollars invested?

If my hold period is infinite (I never plan to sell assets and will pass them down, I only want it for the income it produces), I want prices to stay low, not increase. I acknowledge that is not the same for everyone else, but I've qualified my position as such that I'm speaking purely as a buyer of stock, not a seller.

Also, for clarity sake, when I say price, I'm meaning valuation multiple, not the actual stock price. In other words, what I get for what I'm paying. In this case they are one in the same, because nothing has happened to the underlying business over the last week.

It's unnatural, and Warren Buffett clearly did a better job of illustrating/explaining it than I have been able to. It's from one of his Berkshire annual shareholder letters, which are a treasure trove of down to earth wisdom by the way.

 

[R1T7777]

I think this would be a better Poll (almost made it yesterday)

But

1 hour
$82

1 week
$66

1 month
$78

3 months
$60

1 year
$100

This is what I would have guessed too, so I figured I’d buy the dip. Looks like I may need to wait awhile before reality brings the stock down a bit.

 

[JerseyGreens]

Just broke $170. Good lord.

 

[Jayhawkeye]

INSANE.

 

[Redline]

$175!

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Sell limit at $175 now and it might trigger before the market closes today. Will hold the net to reinvest when it settles back down.

 

[yizzung]

From your link
" This translates to more than $125 billion that companies have left on the table in the last 20 years."

This does seem unprecedented, doesn't it? Rivian alone had a gain of something more than $75 billion dollars of market value within one week after an IPO, virtually no sales or revenue, we only have a really hazy view of possible revenue growth, and as best I can tell, no earnings or cash flow forecasts (pls correct me if these exist). I think it resets thinking for future IPO's in cutting edge industries. Automakers will think about EV spinoffs, or some play that lets them value EV businesses as standalone units.

Well it was written 10 years ago so back when $75B was a lot of money…

Full disclosure: I bought $13K of stock at the IPO price but I have an extremely diversified portfolio and frankly I won’t lose sleep if it doubles again or falls by half. It’s just kind of a fun side bet. I’m in no hurry to sell nor am I interested in buying more. Just having fun on the ride.

That said, people are underestimating Rivian (IMHO) when they quote the income statement. It ignores the fact that the company has been around for a decade, that they have thousands of employees, that they’ve managed to amass 55K “serious” orders ($1K deposits) for a $100K truck and they’ve managed to squirt a few off the assembly lines while garnering rave reviews from the press. That ain’t nothing.

Notice I’m not saying it’s not overvalued. I don’t know what it should be valued at. I do t know what Tesla should be valued at either. I’m also not sure how overvalued the entire market is and whether we’re all just floating on a big murky crypto bubble. Time will tell.

In the meantime, enjoy the ride if you can and don’t put all your eggs in one basket. (And if you’re a value investor looking for slow growth and dividends, you’re definitely in the wrong stock.)

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Sell limit at $175 now and it might trigger before the market closes today. Will hold the net to reinvest when it settles back down.

Lol my sell limit triggered at $175 before I could finish that post.

 

[Dbeglor]

Apparently, CS is guiding people to 2024 for new orders, so I think we're going to see some explosive preorder number growth whenever they report them next.

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