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What's the future of the Electric Truck/SUV market?

ChrissyOne

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Your comment about Rivian appealing to neglected Toyota loyalists may very well pan out. After jumping into the electrification world early with "strong" hybrids, Toyota seems to have gone silent on EV's while tumbling down the hydrogen rabbit hole.
Ishtar jokes aside, it's hard to watch this, and not hear millions of Toyota owners crying out in agony...
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DuckTruck

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Ishtar jokes aside, it's hard to watch this, and not hear millions of Toyota owners crying out in agony...
Agreed. I still can't believe that Toyota has yet to jump into the EV Truck/SUV pool party. With their loyal fanbase, they're losing out in a big way.

And, lest you think less of me for my earlier attempt at humor, I have never, nor will I ever own a copy of Ishtar.

My standards of behavior may not be the highest, but that is a bridge too far! ?
 

ChrissyOne

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And, lest you think less of me for my earlier attempt at humor, I have never, nor will I ever own a copy of Ishtar.
My standards of behavior may not be the highest, but that is a bridge too far! ?
I never doubted you.
 

ja_kub_sz

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Did anyone else catch this, I'm looking over the Ford website and the list the top trim Platinum as excluded from the 300 mile range target.

So the $95,000 Ford F-150 Lightning will have less than a 300 mile range. Also it looks like the Hummer EV will not have a 300 mile range. I just don't see much of a future for those products with such a limited range. Compounding that problem will be the high price for these vehicles with ultimately inferior performance in the realm of drive quality, towing capability, and just fit and finish.

I still think Rivian will do better then the Ford, GM and Dodge. Product-wise rivian has them beat, not to mention with direct sales versus dealer Networks.

Rivian R1T R1S What's the future of the Electric Truck/SUV market? 1638481353741


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Dbeglor

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So the $95,000 Ford F-150 Lightning will have less than a 300 mile range. Also it looks like the Hummer EV will not have a 300 mile range. I just don't see much of a future for those products with such a limited range. Compounding that problem will be the high price for these vehicles with ultimately inferior performance in the realm of drive quality, towing capability, and just fit and finish.

I still think Rivian will do better then the Ford, GM and Dodge. Product-wise rivian has them beat, not to mention with direct sales versus dealer Networks.
The Hummer will be severely limited due to its price. I don't think the people buying it care much about range, it's a dick measuring flex to ride around town in.

The Lightning will (should) move serious volume in the mid trim spec in the 50-60k range. The Platinum spec was never going to be a volume producer. It may take some time for the early adopters to get it and show it to their friends, in addition to taking three years to ramp up production. Also, fleet buyers once they see it in the flesh and all the economics are proven will buy the Pro in bunches. I think it will require a wait for delivery for at least 5 years.
 

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ironpig

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Did anyone else catch this, I'm looking over the Ford website and the list the top trim Platinum as excluded from the 300 mile range target.

So the $95,000 Ford F-150 Lightning will have less than a 300 mile range. Also it looks like the Hummer EV will not have a 300 mile range. I just don't see much of a future for those products with such a limited range. Compounding that problem will be the high price for these vehicles with ultimately inferior performance in the realm of drive quality, towing capability, and just fit and finish.

I still think Rivian will do better then the Ford, GM and Dodge. Product-wise rivian has them beat, not to mention with direct sales versus dealer Networks.
Your Rivian may have less than a 300 mile range when you really drive it depending on conditions. Also, to preemptively tout the fit and finish of Rivian (who hasn't delivered a single car to non-employee customers yet) and Ford (who currently have approximately 17 million F-150s on the road ) seems premature. You don't know what either will be like when they go to customers. The only ting we know is the Ford will be cheaper.

Saying you "don't see much future" in electric platinum F-150s might be the craziest thing I've read here.
 

Dbeglor

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Your Rivian may have less than a 300 mile range when you really drive it depending on conditions. Also, to preemptively tout the fit and finish of Rivian (who hasn't delivered a single car to non-employee customers yet) and Ford (who currently have approximately 17 million F-150s on the road ) seems premature. You don't know what either will be like when they go to customers. The only ting we know is the Ford will be cheaper.

Saying you "don't see much future" in electric platinum F-150s might be the craziest thing I've read here.
Well sure, but his point is that the Platinum Lightning will have at least 14mi less in the same conditions. If it's only 15, not a huge difference, if it's 30+ it might be for some. However, Ford's trailer battery system will be a huge advantage for them for the towing crowd (at least for towing things on trailers).

Regardless, the future of any vehicle that costs over $90k is limited, no matter how good it is. But it's not about the Platinum trim when talking about that vehicle, it's the average price point they will sell them at, which is in the upper 50's. There is still little reason other than lack of supply or fringe use cases to buy an ICE F150 vs. the Lightning long term. Whatever price difference might exist upfront will be wiped out within a year with the ICE version.
 
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ChrissyOne

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Pushing the extreme in a concept like that lets them learn quite a bit about what the market may or may not want and what it can bare.
It also pushes the boundaries on certain regulatory things such as not having mirrors and allows them to explore how to get around that or get the ball rolling on a potential change to the regulations.
They essentially made a test mule platform for a larger framed vehicle (truck or full size SUV) where they can test all the major components and not have the market thinking anything besides them being crazy for doing the Cyber Truck.
...or was it all just to sell a quad for kids?
 

ironpig

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Well sure, but his point is that the Platinum Lightning will have at least 14mi less in the same conditions. If it's only 15, not a huge difference, if it's 30+ it might be for some. However, Ford's trailer battery system will be a huge advantage for them for the towing crowd (at least for towing things on trailers).

Regardless, the future of any vehicle that costs over $90k is limited, no matter how good it is. But it's not about the Platinum trim when talking about that vehicle, it's the average price point they will sell them at, which is in the upper 50's. There is still little reason other than lack of supply or fringe use cases to buy an ICE F150 vs. the Lightning long term. Whatever price difference might exist upfront will be wiped out within a year with the ICE version.
yeah I only mentioned the platinum because the other comment did. Ford is going to sell millions of electric trucks and millions of ICE trucks over the next decade.

The F-150 is the most popular vehicle for 40 years straight. It sells more than any other car, truck or suv every year. Ford sold 850,000 of them last year. We all know the electric version will be even better than the ICE version. Ford customers are not going to switch to a Rivian because it has a quoted 15-20 more miles of range or a gear tunnel or a removable bluetooth speaker. The Lightning has plenty of it's own unique design elements and you can get trim levels starting in the $40s.

Anyone who thinks Rivian is going to sell more electric trucks than Ford is out of their mind.
 

ChrissyOne

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Anyone who thinks Rivian is going to sell more electric trucks than Ford is out of their mind.
Are you trying to tell me that estimates of 800,000 Cybertruck sales per year are ludicrous fever dreams?!?!:giggle:
 

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ja_kub_sz

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The Hummer will be severely limited due to its price. I don't think the people buying it care much about range.

The Lightning will (should) move serious volume in the mid trim spec in the 50-60k range. The Platinum spec was never going to be a volume producer.
Your Rivian may have less than a 300 mile range when you really drive it depending on conditions. Also, to preemptively tout the fit and finish of Rivian (who hasn't delivered a single car to non-employee customers yet) and Ford (who currently have approximately 17 million F-150s on the road ) seems premature. You don't know what either will be like when they go to customers. The only ting we know is the Ford will be cheaper.

Saying you "don't see much future" in electric platinum F-150s might be the craziest thing I've read here
I agree and disagree.

A very small margin of EV buyers won't care about range, and that number will probably only get smaller over time (inversely proportional to chargers). The more EV's become common place the more the metrics move down field, like 0-60, range, etc. People will be sold on those kinda things and demand more from their EV's. People will care, and I'm telling you they care right now.

The Lightning "should" move units, yes, but not at 50-60k. Agree with you about the platinum being a lower volume seller also, but the average price of newly purchased pickup truck is 52-55k... and that's average! These EV trucks despite the rhetoric about "battery tech becoming affordable" will cost more. The current F-150 is 85k loaded, the Lighting now 91k, and so on. However the XLT Lightning will be 53k, the current Ford XLT is 35k!!! So if most Ford pickups are 55k that's 2-3 trim levels above the XLT, well who's gonna spend 53k for an electric truck that doesn't tow what an ICE tows, has a limited range of 250 miles at best, and not to mention has two trim levels less options compared to the truck that they're currently driving? Again truck buyers will care.

The price point and packaging that Ford is offering up is way out of alignment of what its current truck sales are. People aren't just going to buy it because it's electric, and that's where all the applicable comparison fall apart. People who are buying trucks want something of value. Just like anybody else buying a vehicle. And telling Ford F-150 owners (or any potential truck buyer) that you're just going to buy this truck because it's electric, it can't tow what your last truck did, it doesn't have all the features that your last truck did, it can't go as far as your last truck did, but you're going to pay 7k more for it, and you're going to like it, makes little sense.

A Ford Lightning XLT with an extended battery will cost around $60k (53k +???) and that right now is not Ford's best-selling trim level of their consumer sales of the F-150. The numbers don't match up. Yes Ford sells a lot of trucks, but not those kind of trucks.

Secondly my Rivian will get over 300 miles, actually 400+ miles, all at the price tag 5k less than what you spent on your F-150 Lightning Platinum that only goes 275 miles (meaning it can't reasonably tow more then 10k lbs 135 miles). Again furthering my point above.

And when I had my new Ford F-150 Platinum Eco boost 6½' bed, I loved it, but it was 65k and that's was 2015!!! None of this stuff makes sense to me what Ford is doing. Not to mention their product is not appealing considering what the alternatives are. Seriously Ford is asking for a $27,000 price jump for their same truck from not even six years ago that now can't tow.

My Tesla Model S stickered $108,000 when I got that in addition to my F-150 in 2015. The new Model S is practically the same price and a far superior product in every measure. I can't say the same for the Ford.

These are just a few of the things I feel I disagree with you on, because these are valid points that have not been factored in to your appraisal of the F-150 Lightning. The logic that Ford sells a lot of trucks there for they will continue to sell a lot of trucks won't get Ford very far.
 
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Dbeglor

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I agree and disagree.

A very small margin of EV buyers won't care about range, and that number will probably only get smaller over time (inversely proportional to chargers). The more EV's become common place the more the metrics move down field, like 0-60, range, etc. People will be sold on those kinda things and demand more from their EV's. People will care, and I'm telling you they care right now.

The Lightning "should" move units, yes, but not at 50-60k. Agree with you about the platinum being a lower volume seller also, but the average price of newly purchased pickup truck is 52-55k... and that's average! These EV trucks despite the rhetoric about "battery tech becoming affordable" will cost more. The current F-150 is 85k loaded, the Lighting now 91k, and so on. However the XLT Lightning will be 53k, the current Ford XLT is 35k!!! So if most Ford pickups are 55k that's 2-3 trim levels above the XLT, well who's gonna spend 53k for an electric truck that doesn't tow what an ICE tows, has a limited range of 250 miles at best, and not to mention has two trim levels less options compared to the truck that they're currently driving? Again truck buyers will care.

The price point and packaging that Ford is offering up is way out of alignment of what its current truck sales are. People aren't just going to buy it because it's electric, and that's where all the applicable comparison fall apart. People who are buying trucks want something of value. Just like anybody else buying a vehicle. And telling Ford F-150 owners (or any potential truck buyer) that you're just going to buy this truck because it's electric, it can't tow what your last truck did, it doesn't have all the features that your last truck did, it can't go as far as your last truck did, but you're going to pay 7k more for it, and you're going to like it, makes little sense.

A Ford Lightning XLT with an extended battery will cost over $60k and that right now is not Ford's best-selling trim level of their consumer sales of the F-150. The numbers don't match up. Yes Ford sells a lot of trucks, but not those kind of trucks.

Secondly my Rivian will get over 300 miles, actually 400+ miles, all at the price tag 5k less than what you spent on your F-150 Lightning Platinum that only goes 275 miles (meaning it can't reasonably tow more then 10k lbs 135 miles). Again furthering my point above.

And when I had my new Ford F-150 Platinum Eco boost 6½' bed, I loved it, but it was 65k and that's was 2015!!! None of this stuff makes sense to me what Ford is doing. Not to mention their product is not appealing considering what the alternatives are. Seriously Ford is asking for a $27,000 price jump for their same truck from not even six years ago that now can't tow.

My Tesla Model S stickered $108,000 when I got that in addition to my F-150 in 2015. The new Model S is practically the same price and a far superior product in every measure. I can't say the same for the Ford.

These are just a few of the things I feel I disagree with you on, because these are valid points that have not been factored in to your appraisal of the F-150 Lightning. The logic that Ford sells a lot of trucks there for they will continue to sell a lot of trucks won't get Ford very far.
My thesis is predicated on the assumption that the Lightning will be no more than a $10k premium after accounting for tax credits for an apples to apples trim level. This makes it cheaper than the ICE version in probably 3-4 years while being a far better experience.

Let me know if those numbers don't add up.
 

ja_kub_sz

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My thesis is predicated on the assumption that the Lightning will be no more than a $10k premium after accounting for tax credits for an apples to apples trim level. This makes it cheaper than the ICE version in probably 3-4 years while being a far better experience.

Let me know if those numbers don't add up.
Spend more now, so you could save more later? You're a car salesman's dream. Might I offer you the undercoat protection package?

It's a joke, but seriously? Fuel savings, not getting your oil changed, it does add up (I've owned EV'S, hybrids and V8's alike), but asking somebody to see the payoff six or seven years later depending on their driving habits. Not to mention all the concessions made in between. Again you're assuming electricity prices exist in a vacuum along with credits. Do you know what you pay for kilowatt hour right now, do you think you're going to be paying that in five years? I would encourage you to read about the mark-up rate for electricity per kilowatt-hour on these third-party Chargers. One of the main reasons why third-party charging is just another racket, paying 200% (or more) per kilowatt-hour at a third-party chargers isn't something that's talked about the most first-time electric vehicle buyers.

I know it takes money to make money, but that's a hard sell for car buyers. Just imagine when the finance department sits you down and tries to show you a projected graph based on how much you drive and all these other factored in variables to justify why you're spending $20,000 more for your F-150. For some it does make sens with credits,100% at home charging, etc.

Also these credits? You think and you feel they should exist forever? More magic money out of thin air right, who pays those credits? Again that's not a good product strategy to rely on future credits, otherwise every new car would have a credit right?

Let me ask you why do you think credits exist in the first place, because they're trying to offset that out-of-pocket expense up front to get people to buy these cars. Secondly don't you think savvy companies like General Motors and Ford who lobbied for these credits aren't going to mark their product up accordingly knowing that that's how they're going to pitch a more expensive product to you? EV's were never any cheaper or more expensive then as they are now (Model S example). Or at least they shouldn't be, Ford. There shouldn't be any credits if the cost savings are there that you speak of, nor is the future of electric vehicles credit-based.

Again a great deal of EV cost savings are based on the premise the more you drive, the more you save, but at the same time you hear that most daily driving circumstances don't need more than a 200-mile range and the hypothetical cost savings shrink.
 
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ironpig

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I agree and disagree.

A very small margin of EV buyers won't care about range, and that number will probably only get smaller over time (inversely proportional to chargers). The more EV's become common place the more the metrics move down field, like 0-60, range, etc. People will be sold on those kinda things and demand more from their EV's. People will care, and I'm telling you they care right now.

The Lightning "should" move units, yes, but not at 50-60k. Agree with you about the platinum being a lower volume seller also, but the average price of newly purchased pickup truck is 52-55k... and that's average! These EV trucks despite the rhetoric about "battery tech becoming affordable" will cost more. The current F-150 is 85k loaded, the Lighting now 91k, and so on. However the XLT Lightning will be 53k, the current Ford XLT is 35k!!! So if most Ford pickups are 55k that's 2-3 trim levels above the XLT, well who's gonna spend 53k for an electric truck that doesn't tow what an ICE tows, has a limited range of 250 miles at best, and not to mention has two trim levels less options compared to the truck that they're currently driving? Again truck buyers will care.

The price point and packaging that Ford is offering up is way out of alignment of what its current truck sales are. People aren't just going to buy it because it's electric, and that's where all the applicable comparison fall apart. People who are buying trucks want something of value. Just like anybody else buying a vehicle. And telling Ford F-150 owners (or any potential truck buyer) that you're just going to buy this truck because it's electric, it can't tow what your last truck did, it doesn't have all the features that your last truck did, it can't go as far as your last truck did, but you're going to pay 7k more for it, and you're going to like it, makes little sense.

A Ford Lightning XLT with an extended battery will cost around $60k (53k +???) and that right now is not Ford's best-selling trim level of their consumer sales of the F-150. The numbers don't match up. Yes Ford sells a lot of trucks, but not those kind of trucks.

Secondly my Rivian will get over 300 miles, actually 400+ miles, all at the price tag 5k less than what you spent on your F-150 Lightning Platinum that only goes 275 miles (meaning it can't reasonably tow more then 10k lbs 135 miles). Again furthering my point above.

And when I had my new Ford F-150 Platinum Eco boost 6½' bed, I loved it, but it was 65k and that's was 2015!!! None of this stuff makes sense to me what Ford is doing. Not to mention their product is not appealing considering what the alternatives are. Seriously Ford is asking for a $27,000 price jump for their same truck from not even six years ago that now can't tow.

My Tesla Model S stickered $108,000 when I got that in addition to my F-150 in 2015. The new Model S is practically the same price and a far superior product in every measure. I can't say the same for the Ford.

These are just a few of the things I feel I disagree with you on, because these are valid points that have not been factored in to your appraisal of the F-150 Lightning. The logic that Ford sells a lot of trucks there for they will continue to sell a lot of trucks won't get Ford very far.
Ford's most popular Truck is the F-150 XL Regular Cab ($30k) and the 2nd most popular is the XLT SuperCrew ($44k). The F-150 Lightning XLT is $53k before rebates which will bring it to around $45K - Almost exactly the same as the XLT SuperCrew - their second most popular product. Do you think this is an accident? Ford has almost 200,000 reservations for the Lightning and it's not just because it's only $100 to hold your place in line. It's because they have positioned their product perfectly based on their dominance. They know exactly what their customers will want.

Rivian can't come close to that price point with any of their products. Ford will be able to sell an EV pickup in work trim faster than Rivian ever will - and that's if Rivian ever cares to do so. Same with GM. They already have test mules in work trims.

This is is a forum full of people who are buying Rivians instead of Lightnings - it's an echo chamber for all of us who are justifiably excited about our R1Ts. But that doesn't mean we can't also recognize the reality of the EV truck landscape over the next ten years.
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