What's the future of the Electric Truck/SUV market?

[Dbeglor]

This is a popular theory I read online, but most people are then surprised to learn Ford has turned this theory upside down.

Almost 80% of Lightning reservations are held by people who do not currently own a Ford.

THis means the lightning sales will mostly be in addition to ICE F150 sales, not in place of ICE F150 sales and many people think.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/08/04/ford-july-sales.html

I'll believe it when I see it. It's a large leap from reservation out of curiosity and purchase. I have one just to keep tabs on them, but I'd never buy it. I'd imagine a lot of them are also GMC and Ram owners, so I'd pool all of them together and say the vast majority of their truck sales are just shifting ICE to EV.

I never bought an F150 for a variety of other reasons, not because it wasn't electric.

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[ChrissyOne]

I'll believe it when I see it. It's a large leap from reservation out of curiosity and purchase. I have one just to keep tabs on them, but I'd never buy it. I'd imagine a lot of them are also GMC and Ram owners, so I'd pool all of them together and say the vast majority of their truck sales are just shifting ICE to EV.

I never bought an F150 for a variety of other reasons, not because it wasn't electric.

Exactly. I think the fee is also $100? That's a pretty minimal barrier, like the VaporTruck. Maybe the $1,000 Rivian price means *slightly* more, but who knows. None of them carry as much weight as 100,000 Amazon vans.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

I'll believe it when I see it. It's a large leap from reservation out of curiosity and purchase. I have one just to keep tabs on them, but I'd never buy it. I'd imagine a lot of them are also GMC and Ram owners, so I'd pool all of them together and say the vast majority of their truck sales are just shifting ICE to EV.

I never bought an F150 for a variety of other reasons, not because it wasn't electric.

I do agree with you but I also recall Ford reporting that 70% of Mustang Mach-E buyers had never owned a Ford. It's not a massive leap. My neighbor has never owned a Ford and he just ordered a Mach-E himself.

 

[Dbeglor]

I do agree with you but I also recall Ford reporting that 70% of Mustang Mach-E buyers had never owned a Ford. It's not a massive leap. My neighbor has never owned a Ford and he just ordered a Mach-E himself.

The Mach-E, absolutely. Despite the Mustang name, it's not an electric version of a model they were already making, so I would absolutely expect that. For example, what Ford model would you assume someone would switch from if already a Ford customer? It's hard to say, whereas the Lightning is easy. The Mach-E will do far more to increase sales than the Lightning will, unless GM and Ram just completely botch their attempts.

The Lightning is ultimately nothing more than a powertrain option for the F150, like V6 or V8. I expect that for every 10 they sell, it's a reduction of at least 5, if not 7 or 8, ICE variants. Truck buyers are also fiercely loyal, "I buy the badge" as the saying goes. They buy what their family has bought for 100 years.

 

[ironpig]

I think the best chance to Rivian to gain market share is among Toyota buyers, since they seem to be falling on their face with EVs overall. If they don't have an EV Tundra and Land Cruiser before Rivian gets ramped up, they're going to suffer. Rivian might also appeal to people who didn't necessarily drive trucks and SUVs before. But that depends on how fast the rest of the industry moves.

I have owned many Toyotas and still have a 1975 Land Cruiser, 2015 4Runner. Ever since I got my Model S in 2014 and realized the EV potential, I said my dream car is an electric Tacoma. Toyota isn't going to build it for me for probably another 10 years. The R1T is the perfect size and layout for almost everything I do.

I think there is plenty of market for Rivian for a while even with Ford and Chevy taking over the electric work truck market. But they don't have the head start that Tesla did so it's going to be much more competitive and they will have to win on branding and customer loyalty. (the Patagonia of electric trucks)

 

[ChrissyOne]

I have owned many Toyotas and still have a 1975 Land Cruiser, 2015 4Runner. Ever since I got my Model S in 2014 and realized the EV potential, I said my dream car is an electric Tacoma. Toyota isn't going to build it for me for probably another 10 years. The R1T is the perfect size and layout for almost everything I do.

I think there is plenty of market for Rivian for a while even with Ford and Chevy taking over the electric work truck market. But they don't have the head start that Tesla did so it's going to be much more competitive and they will have to win on branding and customer loyalty. (the Patagonia of electric trucks)

Tesla has a head start on batteries, but they're taking a step backward with their ridiculous truck. It's Ford and Rivian's market to lose for the next year or two.

 

[ironpig]

Tesla has a head start on batteries, but they're taking a step backward with their ridiculous truck. It's Ford and Rivian's market to lose for the next year or two.

oh yeah agree on The Cyber Truck. It’s a prop. A concept car. I will be shocked if they actually make it. And if they do, it will sell poorly. It’s too big to fit in most garages and a polarizing design.

Ford and Rivian trucks are designed with the owners in mind. The Cyber Truck is designed as a toy for the CEO.

 

[ChrissyOne]

oh yeah agree on The Cyber Truck. It’s a prop. A concept car. I will be shocked if they actually make it. And if they do, it will sell poorly. It’s too big to fit in most garages and a polarizing design.

Ford and Rivian trucks are designed with the owners in mind. The Cyber Truck is designed as a toy for the CEO.

It seems like it’s been created specifically to never be produced. Elon can just complain about how hard it is to make and stall forever, while he keeps selling his stock off. The word “prop” is right on - it’s designed to impress people with the image of a cool truck, rather than being a practical vehicle. There’s just so much wrong with it. I think about things like - backing up a trailer with that yoke steering wheel, or the first time you run into one of those sharp back corners in the garage. As a cyclist, my first thought was when some jackass turns in front of me and I hit that corner. . .
“But it will have AI technology!” I dunno… it bottoms out when you put a Quad in the back. Let’s slow down on the AI claims.
In any case, Ford made a pretty good looking F Series EV that they will have no problem selling, and that will be good for wider adoption and charging infrastructure. They’ll likely do well in construction and other commercial fleet areas they already own. And they probably will get a lot of non-Ford owners that don’t want to wait for GM or Dodge to wake up.
The mid-size market belongs to Rivian for now. I hope they can scale in less time than it takes for the rest of Detroit to pivot, so they can establish a strong foothold. As it is, my truck will likely take another 2 years, but I’m not in a hurry.

 

[SlaterGS]

oh yeah agree on The Cyber Truck. It’s a prop. A concept car. I will be shocked if they actually make it. And if they do, it will sell poorly. It’s too big to fit in most garages and a polarizing design.

Ford and Rivian trucks are designed with the owners in mind. The Cyber Truck is designed as a toy for the CEO.

I also don't see the Cyber Truck being produced like it has been presented but I do not believe they ever intended to and I think it does a number of positive things for Tesla.

Pushing the extreme in a concept like that lets them learn quite a bit about what the market may or may not want and what it can bare.
It also pushes the boundaries on certain regulatory things such as not having mirrors and allows them to explore how to get around that or get the ball rolling on a potential change to the regulations.
They essentially made a test mule platform for a larger framed vehicle (truck or full size SUV) where they can test all the major components and not have the market thinking anything besides them being crazy for doing the Cyber Truck.

I don't follow Tesla really and I could be way off on my above theory but they aren't just sitting around wanting to sell their current stock and future stock of the S3XY lineup. Something else is being developed like the semi, roadster, truck, suv, other and I believe the Cyber Truck test mule may play a big role in some of those platforms.

Also the Lightning is longer than the Cyber Truck so it seems the argument is more along the polarizing design.

 

[E.S.]

... Despite the Mustang name, it's not an electric version of a model they were already making, so I would absolutely expect that ...

Wait till 2025/26. Then you'll see the Mustang EV everyone will be talking about.

 

[Speedrye]

I don't see the electric truck market taking off frankly. The big manufacturers are going to have a tough time and will stall as long as possible. ICE trucks have huge profit margins typically, and to cover that profit margin, the huge legacy debt burdens they carry, and the much-increased cost of electric, their pricing will simply be too high to convince the average Joe to purchase one. With most of my customers/contractors parking their gigantic trucks outside because they won't fit in the average garage, charging and temperatures will also be issues. These guys use their trucks. They use them on job sites, they use them to tow, they use them to take the family on vacations. Most drive 200+ miles a day in all conditions.

With all of that said, I think Rivian is really smart for NOT trying to court those customers, and is targeting the perfect group for electric trucks. As the legacy automakers ramp up EV truck production, and vehicle prices skyrocket, I think truck sales will decline from their current peak. If they're not making the profit off of them, there's no financial incentive to build them. I think the same applies to the Tahoes, Explorers, Suburbans, Expeditions, etc.

 

[BoltEVowner]

I don't see the electric truck market taking off frankly. The big manufacturers are going to have a tough time and will stall as long as possible. ICE trucks have huge profit margins typically, and to cover that profit margin, the huge legacy debt burdens they carry, and the much-increased cost of electric, their pricing will simply be too high to convince the average Joe to purchase one. With most of my customers/contractors parking their gigantic trucks outside because they won't fit in the average garage, charging and temperatures will also be issues. These guys use their trucks. They use them on job sites, they use them to tow, they use them to take the family on vacations. Most drive 200+ miles a day in all conditions.

With all of that said, I think Rivian is really smart for NOT trying to court those customers, and is targeting the perfect group for electric trucks. As the legacy automakers ramp up EV truck production, and vehicle prices skyrocket, I think truck sales will decline from their current peak. If they're not making the profit off of them, there's no financial incentive to build them. I think the same applies to the Tahoes, Explorers, Suburbans, Expeditions, etc.

One of the biggest detractors is underdeveloped nationwide charging network and charging times. Over the next 2 years, the charging network should increase significantly, and it will be an easier sell for the manufacturers. If Tesla comes on board for everyone in the US, that would be a huge development, will see if it happens anytime soon.

 

[Dbeglor]

I also don't see the Cyber Truck being produced like it has been presented but I do not believe they ever intended to and I think it does a number of positive things for Tesla.

Pushing the extreme in a concept like that lets them learn quite a bit about what the market may or may not want and what it can bare.
It also pushes the boundaries on certain regulatory things such as not having mirrors and allows them to explore how to get around that or get the ball rolling on a potential change to the regulations.
They essentially made a test mule platform for a larger framed vehicle (truck or full size SUV) where they can test all the major components and not have the market thinking anything besides them being crazy for doing the Cyber Truck.

I don't follow Tesla really and I could be way off on my above theory but they aren't just sitting around wanting to sell their current stock and future stock of the S3XY lineup. Something else is being developed like the semi, roadster, truck, suv, other and I believe the Cyber Truck test mule may play a big role in some of those platforms.

Also the Lightning is longer than the Cyber Truck so it seems the argument is more along the polarizing design.

Just one opinion, but for what it's worth, analysts are predicting a ramped up annual volume for the Cybertruck of about 700-800k per year.

That being said, they also expect FSD to become a $40k upfront or $600-$700/mo subscription that about a third of owners elect for by 2030.

 

[Dbeglor]

I don't see the electric truck market taking off frankly. The big manufacturers are going to have a tough time and will stall as long as possible. ICE trucks have huge profit margins typically, and to cover that profit margin, the huge legacy debt burdens they carry, and the much-increased cost of electric, their pricing will simply be too high to convince the average Joe to purchase one. With most of my customers/contractors parking their gigantic trucks outside because they won't fit in the average garage, charging and temperatures will also be issues. These guys use their trucks. They use them on job sites, they use them to tow, they use them to take the family on vacations. Most drive 200+ miles a day in all conditions.

With all of that said, I think Rivian is really smart for NOT trying to court those customers, and is targeting the perfect group for electric trucks. As the legacy automakers ramp up EV truck production, and vehicle prices skyrocket, I think truck sales will decline from their current peak. If they're not making the profit off of them, there's no financial incentive to build them. I think the same applies to the Tahoes, Explorers, Suburbans, Expeditions, etc.

I'm not sure if your argument is supply or demand based, but I'll try a counter. Regardless of the margins on ICE trucks (or any vehicle) they are potentially higher on an EV version (as Tesla has proven). Especially in the case of the Lightning, where they didn't do much to the rest of the vehicle beyond the battery and drivetrain. EV's are less expensive to produce once you figure it out (including renegotiating union contracts for the big three, EVs require 30% less labor).

As for demand, the biggest hurdle for EV trucks, and one that doesn't have a short-term solution, is towing. The fact remains that if you need to tow regularly over long distance, an EV is not for you. That being said, there is close to zero reason a contractor should buy an ICE F150 over the Lightning, even today. They don't need extensive range but still drive a lot of miles, and they would benefit from the much lower operating costs (a Lightning would save someone driving 15k mi/year about $15k over five years vs. an ICE truck). The same goes for the rest of truck owners who don't tow. There is actually a second large hurdle that may take some time, which is psychological and the perceived loss of the man card by going EV. However, the economics and experience will soon tip that over. Large SUVs are similar, the economic advantage of EVs is largest there too. Their biggest need is range because they are the family hauler for longer trips, but that will take care of itself (it's already sufficient for most people once they research it).

Home chargers can easily be installed outdoors (or run outdoors with the 25ft cables), so that's not an issue. The upfront cost net of tax incentives is already close to parity and is expected to cross below before 2025 when everyone is ramped up. Adjusted for inflation, EVs will be cheaper in 2030 than they are today as the effects of cost reductions in batteries, manufacturing and competition take hold. On the other hand, the cost of ICE vehicles will continue to climb as their scale declines. The combination of those two will make for a rather swift last ~25%-50% of the market transitioning to electric.

 

[Zoidz]

Just one opinion, but for what it's worth, analysts are predicting a ramped up annual volume for the Cybertruck of about 700-800k per year.

That being said, they also expect FSD to become a $40k upfront or $600-$700/mo subscription that about a third of owners elect for by 2030.

I'm struggling to believe that 1/3 of EV owners will pay that much for FSD....

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