What the production-delivery gap at Lucid and Rivian reveals

[NY_Rob]

^ GM has sold 84,000 Bolts so far.. that's not insignificant.

They also sold 115,000 Volts between 2010 and 2020.

All without investing in a charging network...

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[jjwolf120]

^ GM has sold 84,000 Bolts so far.. that's not insignificant.

Over what period? They didn't sell 84k this year. They've sold about 22k through 3 quarters in 2022 in the U.S.

 

[domoplaytime]

If we think about how Tesla really established their huge lead in the EV race, it was because they simultaneously built out their charger network all while going through "production hell".

Back then there were few options for level 3 charging outside of the supercharger network. Now there are plenty, though reliability is a concern. I think the circumstances are very different and I'd prefer Rivian to focus less on RAN and more on R2.

 

[fotoflux]

^ GM has sold 84,000 Bolts so far.. that's not insignificant.

They also sold 115,000 Volts between 2010 and 2020.

All without investing in a charging network...

I would like to think that Rivian wants to have a better market perception than Chevy. People don't expect a fine tuned experience when they buy a mass-market car. They expect it to get from point A to B, if the seats are uncomfortable and charging stations are down every now and then, it's ok, they bought a cheap car, cheap cars have compromises. Additionally, I don't think many people think of Bolt as a long distance road tripping car. Yes, people will use them as such, but usually if you can afford it, you buy a larger vehicle to fit all your luggage if you plan on going on long trips.

People are comparing Rivian to Tesla, range anxiety is going to be a large concern for a lot of people, including myself. I hear all these horror stories of 3rd party chargers being offline or non-functional. It makes me second guess going electric. Rivian should either focus on building their own network or work with partners to ensure their networks are reliable for Rivian vehicles. They need to sell reliability for people making the switch from ICE to electric.

 

[NY_Rob]

Over what period? They didn't sell 84k this year. They've sold about 22k through 3 quarters in 2022 in the U.S.

That's not really the point, but the Bolt became available for delivery in early 2017.

The point was.. they've sold 84K pure EV's without spending $$$$ on a charging network.

 

[Guy]

Back then there were few options for level 3 charging outside of the supercharger network. Now there are plenty, though reliability is a concern. I think the circumstances are very different and I'd prefer Rivian to focus less on RAN and more on R2.

Since R2 is so delayed they have the time and money to follow the vision they set out a year ago ahead of the IPO. The RAN is not that expensive and can bring in customers like it does for Tesla. It will also be a foundation of their membership offer.

 

[COdogman]

Back then there were few options for level 3 charging outside of the supercharger network. Now there are plenty, though reliability is a concern. I think the circumstances are very different and I'd prefer Rivian to focus less on RAN and more on R2.

It’s true, there are many more options now. I just think there is an added level of comfort when trying to convert new EV drivers if they know there is a dedicated charging network. It’s a selling point.

 

[Jac]

Rivian has 114,000 enthusiastic people who have paid $1000 deposits on R1’s, a huge EDV order book from Amazon, appealing, distinctive products, and a positive corporate culture. At this point, in my view, Rivian should prioritize spending and resources on their “table stakes”: 1) ramping production, 2) focusing on quality and customer experience, and 3) expanding its service centers to have comprehensive U.S. and Canadian presence.

I think Rivian is doing a good job of focusing on these table stakes, even though they require Rivian to make difficult choices and upset some customers. RAN buildout, for example, while very appealing, isn’t an essential table stakes deliverable. Offering an OEM winch option isn’t really table stakes. We will learn soon if the long-promised quad motor max pack R1T survives as an essential table stakes item. Tough, tough choices. Easy to criticize company decision makers — until you are the one who has to make them.

 

[lmr]

wasn't this number north of 25B just 6 months ago

From Q3 2021 Shareholder letter:

As of September 30, 2021, we had a cash and cash equivalents balance of $5.2 billion. If the net proceeds from our IPO of $13.5 billion and net proceeds from our senior secured floating rate notes of $1.2 billion had been received on that date, our September 30, 2021 balance of cash and cash equivalents would have been $19.9 billion.

From Q4 2021 Shareholder letter:

We ended Q4 2021 with $18,423 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash.

From Q1 2022 Shareholder letter:

We ended Q1 2022 with $16,971 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash.

From Q2 2022 Shareholder letter:

We ended the second quarter of 2022 with $15,463 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash.

From Q3 2022 Shareholder letter:

We ended the third quarter of 2022 with $13,800 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash.

Rivian also stated in the Q3 2022 letter that they are confident in they're ability to fund operations with cash on hand through 2025.

 

[TxBeachRivian]

While the R2 is going to open up a large untapped consumer base like the 3 and Y did for Tesla, there is still a very large untapped base in the EDV market. Getting to a point where they can produce enough EDV to support other customers besides Amazon and just increase the rate of fulfillment for the Amazon order will provide a good amount of income. Think of all the fleet vehicles that could be converted to EDVs.

 

[P.S.Mangelsdorf]

Unpopular opinion: automakers building out their own charging networks is actually working against EV adoption.

It's hard for early adopters to understand how many non-EV drivers do not understand that there is a universal standard for non-Tesla EVs, and that there is a substantial amount of CCS infrastructure in place. I can't tell you how many conversations I've had with people where I am the first person to tell them that there is a charging standard that all EVs on the market from GM, Ford, Rivian, Lucid, BMW, etc can charge at.

Shorter version: A huge number of people think that you can only drive an EV where it's manufacturer has built charging stations.

The more that manufacturers talk about building a charging network, the more this perception persists.

 

[Thud]

Anyone notice that they already reduced complexity by removing trims, delaying max pack, etc. They are doing what they can to constrain costs. Additionally, if I had to hazard a guess, they have significantly reduced investments in the RAN installations. They were claiming they were going to be done by end of 2023 at one point, they've installed like 5 sites out of 600 fast charging sites so far. (https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...stations-by-2023-from-its-website-192756.html)

Unpopular opinion maybe, but... I think Rivian should give up on their own charging network. That would have made sense 10 years ago but not today. Once they scale up production, I doubt anything more than a small fraction of owners will actually use the RAN anyway.
Furthermore I can't find any info that states the RAN will be open to anything but Rivian owners, despite using a standard interface, and the last thing we need is another walled-off charging network.

What we need is more investment into the open networks, not only putting chargers in "adventure" locations like RAN, but making the current stations like EA more reliable and more seamless.

 

[mabowden]

17 Billion USD as of March 31st 2022. If you convert that to Canadian about 22 Billion... New Zealand dollars 27.31 Billion....

The burn rate should reduce as they produce and sell more vehicles. The big variable as others touched on is the roughly 5B Georgia plant.

I'm guessing the Georgia plant will be somewhat highly leveraged. They won't pay all cash for it...

 

[jollyroger]

I still think there is continued value in RAN since most of the fast charging network is focused on road trips. RAN seems to be interested in the trail heads and National parks. It’s a gap Rivian is trying to fill. That being said. If Rivian were a regular car you take on road trips, I would agree with you.

 

[mabowden]

Unpopular opinion maybe, but... I think Rivian should give up on their own charging network. That would have made sense 10 years ago but not today. Once they scale up production, I doubt anything more than a small fraction of owners will actually use the RAN anyway.
Furthermore I can't find any info that states the RAN will be open to anything but Rivian owners, despite using a standard interface, and the last thing we need is another walled-off charging network.

What we need is more investment into the open networks, not only putting chargers in "adventure" locations like RAN, but making the current stations like EA more reliable and more seamless.

I disagree. RAN will likely be open to all EV's, and once they are charging for it that business concept can move faster to profitability than being an EV manufacturer, at least I think...

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