What is your guess for the Day the 1st Rivian is delivered to a Customer?

cc84

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Anyone that uses their own money to purchase a vehicle is a customer. If or by whom they are employed is irrelevant.
I agree.

The S1 filing laid out that at least some employees were given the chance to be early purchasers of LE vehicles (both R1T and R1S). They were put in the queue as preorder holders.
I'll take your word for it. Too many pages for me to look over. Plus, what you wrote makes sense anyway. Thanks for answering my question, as to where you found this information.

They purchase the vehicle themselves, but then do get a $1K/mo subsidy for 24 months (as long as they stay employed by Rivian).
This is where we may differ, in terms of being mutually exclusive. They start out the same, but may not end that way, especially if the employee keeps his job for two years. He will then have a $24,000 discount, not available to a regular preorder holder. Nothing wrong with that either. If the employee paid a preorder deposit for the Rivian, I say it counts as a delivery in September. However, I'm guessing RJ already knew this when he sent out his August update and intentionally worded his message the way he did, instead of stating it would go to employee preorder holders first. He had to know, at the very least, employees would have the incentive to go ahead and take possession in September, with unanswered questions, that weren't available to the rest of us. To me it was misleading. No doubt there will be disagreements with my views.

What I have doubts about, is whether Rivian made deliveries to non-employees in September? I've heard several reports saying there were, but I don't know for sure. As of yesterday, we have an idea about Membership costs, available plans to purchase, and FSD fees, but not completely.

What all is included in Trial Membership? I was told by CS that it is automatically activated when shipped, that we don't need to do anything. That's fine, but since it's already activated, will we be able to turn it off, to see how the vehicle operates without subscribing?

In addition, there are a lot of other unanswered questions. No doubt there are people on this forum that will buy sight unseen, not driven, nor care about any unanswered questions. How does Rivian determine who these people are, so they can deliver to them in September? I'm not one, so it's difficult for me to believe that any regular preorder holders have accepted delivery in September, unless they were given special incentives, unanswered questions answered, or have more expendable money than the average person.

In the long-term outlook, none of what I said above matters. We will get the Rivian when they decide to ship to us. As long as we want their product, we will justify our decisions. My biggest concerns have been about their communication and ambiguous statements.

Nice perk and a good way to help attract quality talent (and build loyalty, make employees feel appreciated, etc.)
I agree 100%.
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jjswan33

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Yes there are many unknowns.

Going from 100 in 2-3 weeks(we don’t know when they actually started the build) to a vehicle every 4-5 mins is a huge step. Add in getting all the logistics and delivery system/team trained and fine tuned. IMO if they hit 1500-2000 deliveries/month and sustain it in 6 months they will have pulled off a small miracle.

I am not knocking Rivian. I think they will do way better than Tesla did when they started production.
I know I read a quote from RJ saying they hope to produce 60k vehicles in their first full year of production (2022). I also believe they have a commitment to product 10k Amazon vans by 2023 so that would mean 50k R1T/R1S models. Since they say that they plan on finishing current pre-orders by then that math all adds up. 50k R1 models next year would mean an average of just over 4K vehicles/month.

So I think 1500-2000 vehicles/month seems reasonable for early 2022 ramping up to 6-8k by the end of the year.
 

cc84

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Do they all sit around a table and discuss how they can best mislead us? "Let's tell them guide contacts will start in May, but we will just contact a handful of people and then stop. We will start deliveries in Sept, but actually to a few employees. "
🤣 Seems like it doesn't it? I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, as not to intentionally mislead us, but I do think they use ambiguous statements intentionally, to make sure somehow their predictions will be correct. It will depend on how the reader interprets their written word. That's why there's so much discussion and disagreements here.
 

CommodoreAmiga

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I know I read a quote from RJ saying they hope to produce 60k vehicles in their first full year of production (2022). I also believe they have a commitment to product 10k Amazon vans by 2023 so that would mean 50k R1T/R1S models. Since they say that they plan on finishing current pre-orders by then that math all adds up. 50k R1 models next year would mean an average of just over 4K vehicles/month.

So I think 1500-2000 vehicles/month seems reasonable for early 2022 ramping up to 6-8k by the end of the year.
Was that quote made prior to the chip shortages and supply chain issues?
 

jjswan33

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Was that quote made prior to the chip shortages and supply chain issues?
Can’t find the reference so it is what its worth I guess, but the order numbers and statements of filling those orders in 2022 was stated by multiple reviews. Likely that is the best case scenario though and could be impacted by production/supply issues.

For what it’s worth I don’t think the chip shortage will impact Rivian as much as the larger automakers. I work in the semiconductor industry and if Rivian had a order placed for the chips they need they will likely get them. The issue will come if they need more than they thought and want to order more. Supply of other components could bring issues though.
 

sillygoose

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Take this with a grain of salt.

Some EV registration numbers from McLean IL, home of Normal, IL, reported by the IL Secretary of State. All numbers are as of the 15th of the month so the second half of September is in the next report:

May 376
June 392
July 415
August 428
Sept 438

if you assume employees likely live in the same county then there were more EVs added in June, July, and August than in September (August 15th thru Sept 15th). I guess the October report could show if some employees became owners.
 

EVTrucking

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Take this with a grain of salt.

Some EV registration numbers from McLean IL, home of Normal, IL, reported by the IL Secretary of State. All numbers are as of the 15th of the month so the second half of September is in the next report:

May 376
June 392
July 415
August 428
Sept 438

if you assume employees likely live in the same county then there were more EVs added in June, July, and August than in September (August 15th thru Sept 15th). I guess the October report could show if some employees became owners.
The numbers you shared are for all makes of EVs? Correct?
 

sillygoose

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The numbers you shared are for all makes of EVs? Correct?
Yes, I did not see where they break down registrations by make (like I have seen elsewhere).

All you can say is that the number of registered EVs changed by that amount. My point would be if 30 employees registered R1Ts then you might see a bigger jump than normal.
 

Autolycus

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ICE only :(
I know I read a quote from RJ saying they hope to produce 60k vehicles in their first full year of production (2022). I also believe they have a commitment to product 10k Amazon vans by 2023 so that would mean 50k R1T/R1S models. Since they say that they plan on finishing current pre-orders by then that math all adds up. 50k R1 models next year would mean an average of just over 4K vehicles/month.

So I think 1500-2000 vehicles/month seems reasonable for early 2022 ramping up to 6-8k by the end of the year.
I’m pretty sure the 10k EDVs are due to Amazon by the _end_ of 2023, so that’s probably 5k or fewer in 2022.
 
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