What are Rivian investors (DSP) doing in 2022 market

[cc84]

Tempting to lay in more now, but the falling knife has me speaking in higher octaves.

This partial Forbes article (below) was dated Feb 15, 2022, evaluating Rivian's performance through Jan 28, 2022 and making future calculations. It may have been posted earlier. I don't have the background to comment, or accept what was written. It was just interesting, for me, to read. Short article.

Falling Knife: Rivian Automotive (RIVN): Down 68% from 52-Wk High & 82%+ Downside Remaining

"I put Rivian Automotive (RIVN) in the Danger Zone in October 2021 prior to its IPO. Since the opening price on IPO date, the stock is down 46% while the S&P 500 is down just 5%, and Rivian’s shares could fall another 82%."

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[SANZC02]

This partial Forbes article (below) was dated Feb 15, 2022, evaluating Rivian's performance through Jan 28, 2022 and making future calculations. It may have been posted earlier. I don't have the background to comment, or accept what was written. It was just interesting, for me, to read. Short article.

Falling Knife: Rivian Automotive (RIVN): Down 68% from 52-Wk High & 82%+ Downside Remaining

"I put Rivian Automotive (RIVN) in the Danger Zone in October 2021 prior to its IPO. Since the opening price on IPO date, the stock is down 46% while the S&P 500 is down just 5%, and Rivian’s shares could fall another 82%."

I read that a little while ago, the issue I have with it is the calculations are too simplistic. He only talks about consumer vehicles, no mention of the commercial vehicle. There is no mention of the additional revenue streams like the consumer subscription, fleet program, or potential revenue from the RAN network. By 2030 you will be in the 8th year so there would be service revenue as well,for out of warrenty vehicles.

I do not expect to see the ridicules P/E that Tesla has that seems to be rolling back a bit lately but I do think they have a decent product and business plan that gives them room for the valuation to grow. Especially if they can come close to the 10% share of the EV market they are shooting for by 2030.

 

[johnking]

Holding on to the IPO shares and twice bought more shares once in the $ 90s and another in the $ 60s. In it for the long haul.

 

[aAlpine]

20 x RIVN March 11 $60 Puts

 

[OldGoat]

20 x RIVN March 11 $60 Puts

Sold or bought?

 

[aAlpine]

Sold or bought?

Ah yeah, that's key isn't it. Bought. I suspect investors won't be happy with the progress so far. If I'm wrong, that means deliveries for us all sooner rather than later! I still believe the company will do well long term, regardless of my willingness to bet against them in the short term.

 

[Atlrivian]

Ah yeah, that's key isn't it. Bought. I suspect investors won't be happy with the progress so far. If I'm wrong, that means deliveries for us all sooner rather than later! I still believe the company will do well long term, regardless of my willingness to bet against them in the short term.

I've bought shares a couple times from 55-65. Also been selling short term puts ~7% below market weekly for the last month. Going to take that cash and buy a bunch of puts 5-10% below market value on march 10.

My thoughts are exactly in line with @aAlpine. If stock drops I win, if not then I also win because its good news and hopefully I get my truck faster.

 

[OldGoat]

I've been thinking about a straddle. Hard to imagine there won't be a significant move one way or the other, but, of course, the market thinks the same judging by those premiums so I'll probably just sit on the sidelines.

Good luck

 

[aAlpine]

20 x RIVN March 11 $60 Puts

92% profit so far. Thanks Rivian I guess...

 

[Count Orlok]

I still have my DSP shares and picked up 1,000 today at ~$27. Although I am not sure why I am still optimistic about the company long-term. Of course if they continue at the snail's pace of 25 vehicles a day I'll be out by the end of the year.

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