Updates on Rivian production ramp from 3rd S-1 amendment [filed 11/5]

[yizzung]

Now that we have some data points around their target weekly production and approximate timeline to ramp up ("late 2023"), we can do rough napkin math for how long they'll cumulatively produce different numbers of vehicles.

For instance, I'm Jan 2021 pre-order, so maybe somewhere around #30k or 35k? (maybe higher, no clue). If they were to ramp up perfectly linearly from 104 to 1,310 weekly, and if "late 2023" is Q4... then they can reach 30k right at the end of 2022.

Here's my rough napkin math if anyone is interested or has other ideas:

In the 2nd amended filing, they announced an increase from 2 cars per day to 14. If they keep producing 14 cars per day (96 per week) through the end of the year, they would come pretty close to hitting 1,000 cars. Interesting that they are choosing to cap things at their current rate. I would have assumed some kind of ramp but I guess they're maxed. Bummer.

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[SeaGeo]

Now that we have some data points around their target weekly production and approximate timeline to ramp up ("late 2023"), we can do rough napkin math for how long they'll cumulatively produce different numbers of vehicles.

For instance, I'm Jan 2021 pre-order, so maybe somewhere around #30k or 35k? (maybe higher, no clue). If they were to ramp up perfectly linearly from 104 to 1,310 weekly, and if "late 2023" is Q4... then they can reach 30k right at the end of 2022.

Here's my rough napkin math if anyone is interested or has other ideas:

when would they hit 55k made with this? June? Your ramp is slightly faster than my rough mental math I did, but pretty similar. The thing that sticks out to me is it implies that something changed in their expected production since the first filed since they thought they would get through all 48k preorders initially.

...Unless that was including an anticipated cancelation rate of about 40%.

 

[St Bernard]

Now that we have some data points around their target weekly production and approximate timeline to ramp up ("late 2023"), we can do rough napkin math for how long they'll cumulatively produce different numbers of vehicles.

For instance, I'm Jan 2021 pre-order, so maybe somewhere around #30k or 35k? (maybe higher, no clue). If they were to ramp up perfectly linearly from 104 to 1,310 weekly, and if "late 2023" is Q4... then they can reach 30k right at the end of 2022.

Here's my rough napkin math if anyone is interested or has other ideas:

You have to assume 20% cancellations ??

 

[Kialoa]

In the 2nd amended filing, they announced an increase from 2 cars per day to 14. If they keep producing 14 cars per day (96 per week) through the end of the year, they would come pretty close to hitting 1,000 cars. Interesting that they are choosing to cap things at their current rate. I would have assumed some kind of ramp but I guess they're maxed. Bummer.

Based on a recent call with my Rivian Guide - they ARE ramping production. It seems the initial ramp is slower than expected (hockey stick model), but is ramping. If what the guide saw on Saturday (16 R1Ts being readied for delivery) - then maybe they are now at 16/day? Also, I suspect they will always use worst-case modeling in their amendments - to ensure they achieve their numbers.

 

[wizard467]

Based on a recent call with my Rivian Guide - they ARE ramping production. It seems the initial ramp is slower than expected (hockey stick model), but is ramping. If what the guide saw on Saturday (16 R1Ts being readied for delivery) - then maybe they are now at 16/day? Also, I suspect they will always use worst-case modeling in their amendments - to ensure they achieve their numbers.

Per the last S1 amendment they produced 20 per day in the last week of October. That is the most recent numbers they have provided.
A hockey stick is exactly how ramp-ups work, it isn’t linear. The most recent (and most visible) was the Model 3 for comparison.

 

[AndroidAppBundle]

Don't use the Model 3 production ramp up as a guideline. The Model 3 was the third vehicle (or 4th. If you can't the original Roadster) from Tesla.

This meant 2 other vehicles to work on battery, charging, infotainment, navigation, manufacturing process reengineering, etc. By the time Tesla produced the first Model 3, they had delivered tens of thousands of Model S and Model X.

When I come up with my Q2-Q3 2024 date for my R1S delivery; I look at Model S/X production ramp up back in 2011-2013. It wasn't until like.....2015-2016, that we really seen Tesla hit their stride.

From June to November this year, I had high hopes for Rivian. They really had the opportunity to come out of the gate swinging. Rivian left the gate with more of a sputter, and is playing games with public relations, while trying to balance an IPO.

I think Rivian will ultimately be successful. But in the short term, like Tesla when they were a young company, Rivian will experience turbulence in the markets. Rivian will likely nearly go bankrupt (just like Tesla), and Rivian share prices will plummet before recovering.


Customers right now need to have their expectations reset. This forum was painfully optimistic about Rivian timelines, even to the point where people didn't want to hear a dash of skepticism. I'm sorry I have to be the bearer of bad news, and fill the void left by Rivians communications department.....

 

[wizard467]

Don't use the Model 3 production ramp up as a guideline. The Model 3 was the third vehicle (or 4th. If you can't the original Roadster) from Tesla.

When I come up with my Q2-Q3 2024 date for my R1S delivery; I look at Model S/X production ramp up back in 2011-2013. It wasn't until like.....2015-2016, that we really seen Tesla hit their stride.

From June to November this year, I had high hopes for Rivian. They really had the opportunity to come out of the gate swinging. Rivian left the gate with more of a sputter, and is playing games with public relations, while trying to balance an IPO.

Fair enough, but Rivian is already doing better than the Model S/X in 2011/2012.

The numbers Tesla reported were 50 model S in the first 6 weeks after the first vehicle rolled off the line. Rivian’s IPO actually helps us know that Rivian has already produced 3 times that number of trucks in its first 6 weeks compared to the Model S. We know Rivian made 180 total as of October 31st and started in September. That's 180 in 8 weeks, minus the 20 they said they produced in the last week of October for 160 in 7 weeks. The second amendment had them at 14 per week so about 145 in 6 weeks.

I agree with you about the high hopes. I think the key issue a lot of us were under (myself included) was that they had already started the production ramp up in June which would have hit the deliveries in October easily. Now that we know ramp up didn't start till September everything gets shifted by 6 months; hence the February delivery dates that are now being communicated.

Also the website has said January 2022 deliveries for some time, but everyone was hoping the initial guide contacts that said October/Thanksgiving were actually correct. I think its clear the guides had limited knowledge about the production status. This is unfortunate because it has definitely caused confusion, but overall not surprising especially if a lot of the delay was caused by COVID and supply chain issues which are proving difficult to handle by even established companies (car manufactures as well as tech companies in general).

Will there still be bumps; of course, but Rivian's ramp up so far is better than the S and on-par with the Model 3 so it seems realistic for them to reach their revised delivery dates from the S1.

 

[SeaGeo]

Don't use the Model 3 production ramp up as a guideline. The Model 3 was the third vehicle (or 4th. If you can't the original Roadster) from Tesla.

This meant 2 other vehicles to work on battery, charging, infotainment, navigation, manufacturing process reengineering, etc. By the time Tesla produced the first Model 3, they had delivered tens of thousands of Model S and Model X.

When I come up with my Q2-Q3 2024 date for my R1S delivery; I look at Model S/X production ramp up back in 2011-2013. It wasn't until like.....2015-2016, that we really seen Tesla hit their stride.

From June to November this year, I had high hopes for Rivian. They really had the opportunity to come out of the gate swinging. Rivian left the gate with more of a sputter, and is playing games with public relations, while trying to balance an IPO.

I think Rivian will ultimately be successful. But in the short term, like Tesla when they were a young company, Rivian will experience turbulence in the markets. Rivian will likely nearly go bankrupt (just like Tesla), and Rivian share prices will plummet before recovering.


Customers right now need to have their expectations reset. This forum was painfully optimistic about Rivian timelines, even to the point where people didn't want to hear a dash of skepticism. I'm sorry I have to be the bearer of bad news, and fill the void left by Rivians communications department.....

Lmao, you did not have high hopes. You were arguing that anyone who preodered this year would get their trucks no earlier than in the latter half of 2024. You also said R1S deliveries start still Q3 2024. These predictions were made in August and September.

 

[yizzung]

Based on a recent call with my Rivian Guide - they ARE ramping production. It seems the initial ramp is slower than expected (hockey stick model), but is ramping. If what the guide saw on Saturday (16 R1Ts being readied for delivery) - then maybe they are now at 16/day? Also, I suspect they will always use worst-case modeling in their amendments - to ensure they achieve their numbers.

Yeah, that’s fine but they had stated publicly that they’d try to hit 10K by the end of this year and that’s been dialed down to 1K. They had increased the production ramp from v1 of the S1 to v2 like 6X, so to go from 14 to 20 is far less impressive and also indicates that they won’t do any better than 20 this year if the goal is 1K.

 

[AndroidAppBundle]

Incorrect. Find the post where I say Q3 2024 is when deliveries start.
The Q2-Q3 2024 date I toss around is for my R1S delivery, and everyone else who has reserved one in 2021.

I talk quite extensively about deliveries starting in 2021-2022, depending on definition of customer.

Did you maybe hear what you wanted to hear, versus what I said?

Lmao, you did not have high hopes. You were arguing that anyone who preodered this year would get their trucks no earlier than in the latter half of 2024. You also said R1S deliveries start still Q3 2024. These predictions were made in August and September.

 

[dfx]

Incorrect. Find the post where I say Q3 2024 is when deliveries start.
The Q2-Q3 2024 date I toss around is for my R1S delivery, and everyone else who has reserved one in 2021.

I talk quite extensively about deliveries starting in 2021-2022, depending on definition of customer.

Did you maybe hear what you wanted to hear, versus what I said?

If you don't get your delivery until Q3 2024 then the share price will be in the tank. I think that the Tesla Model S rollout shouldn't be a guide. They didn't have a sales pace to warrant a significant jump in production back then. I ordered a Model S in April 2013 and had the car delivered 3 weeks later. The Model 3 release was when they had the sales to warrant a significant ramp up.
The Nissan rolled out over 20,000 Leafs in their first year and maintained that pace until sales demand made a higher production worthwhile.
I see no reason why Rivian won't be selling vehicles with a 4-8 week delay until delivery by year end 2023

 

[LoneStar]

Debating production rates that vary from pathetic to miserable up to as good as terrible.

Rivian should already be building 40+ vehicles per day rate.

 

[Guy]

Debating production rates that vary from pathetic to miserable up to as good as terrible.

Rivian should already be building 40+ vehicles per day rate.

Agreed.
The other annoying thing is that Ford managed to build over 47000 Mach E in one year in a retrofitted factory (like Rivian have) and yet it is going to take until the end of 2024 to get to an annualized 50000 a year. This is a very slow build up and I appreciate underpromising and over delivering. But they should aim to get 25000 out next year so they can then export to Australia and other markets in a timely fashion. They need to maximize their first mover advantage with the first electric truck and three row suv.

lucid has managed in a little over a year with building a new factory get 20 vehicles to real customers. Rivian need to speed up or they will lose the valuable position of being the first real seven seat EV SUV and five seat truck. Others are coming and are likely to scale quicker.

 

[SeaGeo]

Incorrect. Find the post where I say Q3 2024 is when deliveries start.
The Q2-Q3 2024 date I toss around is for my R1S delivery, and everyone else who has reserved one in 2021.

I talk quite extensively about deliveries starting in 2021-2022, depending on definition of customer.

Did you maybe hear what you wanted to hear, versus what I said?

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/time-to-delivery-if-i-order-now.1929/post-49174

"I am in your camp as well. To properly set expectations for myself; I don’t think R1S deliveries start until Q3 2024, with my vehicle R1S not being delivered until 2025. Rivian may exceed these expectations. Or not. But they are realistic "




There are others too.

 

[wizard467]

Yeah, that’s fine but they had stated publicly that they’d try to hit 10K by the end of this year and that’s been dialed down to 1K. They had increased the production ramp from v1 of the S1 to v2 like 6X, so to go from 14 to 20 is far less impressive and also indicates that they won’t do any better than 20 this year if the goal is 1K.

That isn’t what the S1 said. The 14 per day was an average that “we” (readers of S1) calculated after the second amendment was released. The third amendment said 20 per day (104 for the week) in the last week of October which was for the end part of the timeframe of the 14 avg that we had guessed after the second amendment. So it isn’t 14 to 20. Recalculating using the 3rd amendment they made 168 total in October, 104 of those in the last week. So in the first 3 weeks of October they only made 64, assuming 3 5-day workweeks that is only 4 per day.

4 per day to 20 per day is the actual ramp up from beginning to last week of October. Edit: If working 7 days each week it’s closer to going from 3 to 15 per day.

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