Updates on Rivian production ramp from 3rd S-1 amendment [filed 11/5]

[Max]

I agree with most of your logic, but I’m not sure USPS will buy from a non union shop given all of this administration’s love for unions

Ford E-Transit and GM BrightDrop all want a piece of the same pie.

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[Drterreur]

https://rivian.com/fleet

Now you can have your Rivian van for your fleet as well !

 

[Ralph]

I agree with most of your logic, but I’m not sure USPS will buy from a non union shop given all of this administration’s love for unions

Union/non-union aside, I doubt any sales will be made to USPS at any time in the near future as government contracting would likely take quite some, especially for USPS, an agency who has "challenges" (not intended to make in broader political point).

I should have been more clear that I don't expect USPS to be a customer "s00n".

 

[Sgt Beavis]

USPS is buying this monstrosity. 10% of which will be electric. Though, as this article points out, Congress wants a higher percentage of those vans to be EVs.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...lectric-usps-trucks-amid-contract-controversy

 

[André]

USPS is buying this monstrosity. 10% of which will be electric. Though, as this article points out, Congress wants a higher percentage of those vans to be EVs.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...lectric-usps-trucks-amid-contract-controversy

They now have a big incentive to go 100% electric with 30% subsidies... and this is what is behind the large Tesla order from Hertz

https://www.mayerbrown.com/-/media/...treatment-of-electric-vehicle-tax-credits.pdf

 

[EarlyAdptr]

I disagree with the poster that the production targets for the EDV vs the R1s showing any "favoritism" to Amazon. It's a commercial vehicle. Their are far fewer variables in configurations that need to be swapped in and out. The production lines can therefore be much more efficient with fewer variables.

One more sobering thought. Honda sold 1.6 million vehicles in just the U.S. in 2019. 150,000/year at full capacity from this single plant makes their IPO valuation greater than Honda really difficult to swallow.

I agree. Not only are there less configurations, the WORK content is also likely to be far less - so they can run that line a bit faster (thus producing more). If there's any "favortism" it was the strategic decision to have a separate, dedicated line for the vans. But I see that as pure smarts - good business and given the huge differences in the platforms - simplifying production for both vans and R1's.

 

[Guy]

Rivian is not in Tesla’s league. Not yet anyway.

I agree they are not, just that the markets are irrational. If I wanted a badly built car made in a tent I would buy a Tesla!

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

Where did you get the idea that they will delay max pack builds until mid-2023? That's 18 months later than planned.

I've wondered whether the Max Pack will come with 400kWh charging and/or other charging system improvements. If so, it makes sense that they might be last in line. Battery supply constraints would also cause Max Packs to be placed last in line. Either way, I wouldn't plan to get a Max Pack any time soon.

Ironically, the later they come out the more developed the charging network will be and the less necessary they will be.

I've found myself wondering if paying the extra $10,000K now is worth the benefit. You could invest the $10,000k now and buy a new Rivian in 5-7 years with that seed money. Battery tech should be relatively more advanced by 2028-2030. Add the price of your moderately used Rivian and you could be close to a paid off vehicle.

 

[lefkonj]

Would be great if our orders themselves had ETAs. I know those wouldn't be perfect numbers but I don't know if I am #2 or #55,000. Doesn't really matter too much to me but would like a rough guess should my vehicle be in in Q1 of 22 or Q4 of 23, that is a major difference

 

[dfx]

It's all speculation but it's probably safe to assume that the company is setting themselves up post IPO to under-promise and overdeliver. Once the stock is trading, any problems will impact the share price in an exaggerated way. Odds are, they will exceed these delivery targets, but by how much?
It seems to me that they will fulfill all the LE deliveries prior to MAX Pack commencing, but that's speculating for sure.

 

[dmnyc]

What does this mean for a December 2018 R1S preorder?

 

[yizzung]

These newer companies are being valued on high growth potential, not on volume of sales. Honda grows about 3% YOY. Tesla's growth rate is easily 10X that. Rivian's valuation will be more closely comped to Tesla's, but will be hugely speculative because, well, Rivian ain't proved jack **** yet.

 

[gd_r1t]

Now that we have some data points around their target weekly production and approximate timeline to ramp up ("late 2023"), we can do rough napkin math for how long they'll cumulatively produce different numbers of vehicles.

For instance, I'm Jan 2021 pre-order, so maybe somewhere around #30k or 35k? (maybe higher, no clue). If they were to ramp up perfectly linearly from 104 to 1,310 weekly, and if "late 2023" is Q4... then they can reach 30k right at the end of 2022.

Here's my rough napkin math if anyone is interested or has other ideas:

 

[LoneStar]

Guess it will be the Lightning for me... my order's in the 40k range in line

 

[pc500]

Interesting info from Reddit:

Given the recent surge in comments about the production ramp, and now apparently some delays, I found this new paragraph, added to the Third Amended S-1 filed this afternoon, particularly interesting:


The most salient tidbits:

• Current production rate is 8% of anticipated target.
• At full capacity, Rivian expects to produce 1310 R1s/week, and 1710 EDVs/week....or put another way, 65,000 R1s/year, and 85,000 EDVs/year. If there were any doubt about Amazon's importance to the company (and, ahem, favoritism), that paints a pretty clear picture.
• Notably, Amazon is only committed for 100,000 EDVs...yet Rivian will be able to produce 85,000/year by 2023. So I'm going to take a total shot in the dark here, but it seems like a reasonable bet that at some point in the next 90-180 days Rivian announces another significant/material order of EDVs by a company other than Amazon (perhaps a DHL/FedEx/UPS/USPS?) ... That would certainly be an interesting response to the Tesla/Hertz story!
• Production will increase based on (1) increased speed of the line (translation: solve all the QC issues); (2) hire and train more employees (equals additional shifts); and (3) purchased materials. That's a pretty clear indication of why those who may have been promised delivery in late October/November are now being pushed to April.
• Full run rate isn't expected to be achieved until late 2023. This seems reasonable for a new vehicle. Even though I'm a late, late number (probably in the 40,000-ish range), based on these new disclosures I am optimistic I'll still get delivery by the end of 2022 (assuming status quo holds and supply chain issues don't get significantly worse).

One last note... if and to the extent the recent allegations are true, then this paragraph (included in all of the S-1s thus far) is particularly cringe-y, but totally expected corporate speak:


However, I found it interesting that the "Legal Proceedings" discussion on page 153 still only mentions the Tesla and Illinois Automobile Dealers Association (et al.) lawsuits, with no mention of the new claims. Perhaps the company doesn't view it as material enough to include in the S-1, but it's likely too soon to tell.

Edited for words & clarity.

Legal proceedings are only mentioned if they will materially impact the value. A individual lawsuit about a worker who was "wronged" for bro culture might see some random $xxx,xxx check written, which is exactly what the lawyer filing right now wants, but doesn't have the business risk that Telsa winning a patent lawsuit does.

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