Update: Georgia factory construction begins 2026, with R2/R3/R3X production in 2028 -- (article published 1/22/25)

[DucRider]

Seriously? comparing CT to R2 and trying to assume consumer behavior would be the same? Look at the prices of the two. Not to mention specs and prices changed wildly for CT between concept pitch to production. Watermelon to grape.

Both were what amounts to token deposits of $100 fully refundable.
A conversion to order rate of 50% would be outstanding. More likely to be in the 35% neighborhood.

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[Zoidz]

I thought the site had been cleared and graded so wondering why it will take 12 months before they start construction. If they could do it sooner R3 could be 2027
not 2028. Must have their reasons, just curious.

There's still a ton of sitework to do before construction can begin. As I recall from previous photos and videos, the only work that is done was the clearing, rough grading and storm runoff control. They still need to run all the site water/gas/electric/sewer/stormsewer/communications/network utilities, grade and stone the roadways, etc. before construction can begin.

 

[VSG]

Yup. Demand and production is not the problem. After-sales support is. Within first 24 hours of R2 reservations being open, they got 68k. What they have now has to be well over 155k. Hopeful reservations holders are already reading the subreddits' incessant bitching about service and getting scared.

I have two first hour reservations for R2. I'm willing to sell one to the highest bidder, to let you skip the line of 100k+ people.

Do I win for being the first one to start this up again?

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

The R3 isn’t coming until 2028?! I just leased a Tesla Model 3 for three years, so that actually lines up well. I just hope Rivian survives until then. The R2 can’t come out soon enough.

 

[srkz]

Both were what amounts to token deposits of $100 fully refundable.
A conversion to order rate of 50% would be outstanding. More likely to be in the 35% neighborhood.

Cybertruck got a million reservations for a bulletproof truck with a starting price of $39,900 when there was little to no competition in the EV truck space. Then they tried to sell people a very much not bulletproof truck with a starting price north of $100k after 2-3 really good competitors had already come to market. It's pretty obvious why they had such a poor conversion rate...

If the first run of R2 comes in under $69k you'll see a way higher conversion rate than Cybertruck got. The Model 3's conversion rate has been estimated between 70 and 80% in the US when it was released.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Cybertruck got a million reservations for a bulletproof truck with a starting price of $39,900 when there was little to no competition in the EV truck space. Then they tried to sell people a very much not bulletproof truck with a starting price north of $100k after 2-3 really good competitors had already come to market. It's pretty obvious why they had such a poor conversion rate...

If the first run of R2 comes in under $69k you'll see a way higher conversion rate than Cybertruck got. The Model 3's conversion rate has been estimated between 70 and 80% in the US when it was released.

 

[DuoRivian]

There's still a ton of sitework to do before construction can begin. As I recall from previous photos and videos, the only work that is done was the clearing, rough grading and storm runoff control. They still need to run all the site water/gas/electric/sewer/stormsewer/communications/network utilities, grade and stone the roadways, etc. before construction can begin.

Well they have three full years - hopefully they can get efficient workers and get it done in two and then start the ramp up and have a late 2027 surprise of production for consumers.

 

[DucRider]

Cybertruck got a million reservations for a bulletproof truck with a starting price of $39,900 when there was little to no competition in the EV truck space. Then they tried to sell people a very much not bulletproof truck with a starting price north of $100k after 2-3 really good competitors had already come to market. It's pretty obvious why they had such a poor conversion rate...

If the first run of R2 comes in under $69k you'll see a way higher conversion rate than Cybertruck got. The Model 3's conversion rate has been estimated between 70 and 80% in the US when it was released.

Indeed - that is why CT conversion rate is ~3%

A $100 deposit is too low to expect high conversion numbers. Anything approaching 50% would be a spectacular result.
Rivian will never release that stat, we will be left guessing based on when deliveries open to non-reservation holders (and late reservations as deliveries approach will have a much higher conversion rate).

 

[savethemanual]

Indeed - that is why CT conversion rate is ~3%

A $100 deposit is too low to expect high conversion numbers. Anything approaching 50% would be a spectacular result.
Rivian will never release that stat, we will be left guessing based on when deliveries open to non-reservation holders (and late reservations as deliveries approach will have a much higher conversion rate).

Exactly why these low, refundable deposits are nothing to take seriously in regards to predicting demand.

 

[DeafPug]

Exactly why these low, refundable deposits are nothing to take seriously in regards to predicting demand.

It's better than the $100 membership fee that Dodge is charging on the REV and Ramcharger pickups. This is a $100 fee to be allowed to order one of the first to submit an actual order for a vehicle. As they approach the delivery dates, they send you an email that you are now able to configure your vehicle and submit your order. At that point, the previously refundable $100 fee disappears and you have obtained the value of the fee - being invited to place one of the first orders. It does not count towards the actual purchase.

I was in the process of putting in a reservation, but happy that I read the legalese in their agreement and figured out what the $100 fee actually got you.

 

[mkg3]

Unless Rivian ups the battery tech on R2, from what was shown thus far, not clear if it will do as well as many of you are saying.

With all the PHEV, EREV and no tax/government incentives, R2 may be viewed as pricy for what it is (starting price is good, what about a decently equipped version?? - no pricing structure has been released and if decent range equipped R2 is tipping outside of $60K that would be a much less attractive to the targeted market segment).

Midsized SUV has Kia/Hyndai to compete against in the low end, Audi/BMW/MB/Range Rover on the upper end and looks like Volvo/Polestar and Jeep on par with Rivian for BEV SUV.

 

[SANZC02]

Indeed - that is why CT conversion rate is ~3%

A $100 deposit is too low to expect high conversion numbers. Anything approaching 50% would be a spectacular result.
Rivian will never release that stat, we will be left guessing based on when deliveries open to non-reservation holders (and late reservations as deliveries approach will have a much higher conversion rate).

It might be half of that. They said at one point they had 2 million reservations, looks like they delivered around 30k plus or minus a few, that is around 1.5% and I’m sure some of the deliveries were walk ins not from the reservation pool.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Unless Rivian ups the battery tech on R2, from what was shown thus far, not clear if it will do as well as many of you are saying.

With all the PHEV, EREV and no tax/government incentives, R2 may be viewed as pricy for what it is (starting price is good, what about a decently equipped version?? - no pricing structure has been released and if decent range equipped R2 is tipping outside of $60K that would be a much less attractive to the targeted market segment).

Midsized SUV has Kia/Hyndai to compete against in the low end, Audi/BMW/MB/Range Rover on the upper end and looks like Volvo/Polestar and Jeep on par with Rivian for BEV SUV.

R2 will compare favorably to the Model Y, which sells in numbers well above what Rivian is looking to achieve already. The MY refresh is starting at $60k for now. I doubt the R2 will crossover at all price wise with the R1S. Trimotor Ascent might crack $60k but I expect the most popular config, dual motor/large battery to be in the low 50s. If they can sell even half as many as the MY in the US, they will meet their production goals.

 

[mkg3]

R2 will compare favorably to the Model Y, which sells in numbers well above what Rivian is looking to achieve already. The MY refresh is starting at $60k for now. I doubt the R2 will crossover at all price wise with the R1S. Trimotor Ascent might crack $60k but I expect the most popular config, dual motor/large battery to be in the low 50s. If they can sell even half as many as the MY in the US, they will meet their production goals.

That's just it. You're still comparing EV to EV. While EV sales continue to climb, it is at a very slow rare compared to PHEV or soon to be seen EREV.

R2's main competition is not Model Y. It's all other midsized SUVs. regardless of power plant.

Vast majority of Model Y buyers are urban people looking as a basic transportation. It's more of a hatchback crossover than a SUV. Rivian, on the other hand is appealing to adventure, lifestyle buyers - probably the same buyers that appeals to Jeeps and Subarus and price conscience/sensitive.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

That's just it. You're still comparing EV to EV. While EV sales continue to climb, it is at a very slow rare compared to PHEV or soon to be seen EREV.

R2's main competition is not Model Y. It's all other midsized SUVs. regardless of power plant.

Vast majority of Model Y buyers are urban people looking as a basic transportation. It's more of a hatchback crossover than a SUV. Rivian, on the other hand is appealing to adventure, lifestyle buyers - probably the same buyers that appeals to Jeeps and Subarus and price conscience/sensitive.

I'm not saying that it's only competing against the Model Y. What I'm saying is that it will have similar characteristics to the Model Y, and if you're analyzing the market and it's the closest comp, you can see that there is ample room in the market to be successful.

I think for the R2 you'll have people who are cross shopping Subaru Outback/Forester, Jeep Grand Cherokee, Ford Bronco Sport, Tesla Model Y, and maybe Mazda CX-50. There's plenty of room in that market IMO and when compared to those vehicles the overall driving experience will be compelling enough to sell as many as they can make.

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