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SDH

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R2 production will start in Normal, but ramp up to meet expected demand will require the Georgia plan. R3/R3X is slated for Georgia as well. 2028 is a long ways away for the R3/R3X. Rivian might be regretting revealing it too soon.
I'm not so sure. It gives current owners (esp early R1 owners) enough time inbetween to trade out and get an R2 without holding on to wait for the R3.

I really want the R3X over an R2 but I''m not going to hold on to my 2022 R1T till 2028 so I'll trade it next yr for an R2. Maybe I'll then run the R2 for a couple of years and then trade it for the R3X or just add the R3X.

Sure, some might lose patience, but I also think it limits the downside of throwing loads of choice at the market all at once.
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R1Thor

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I hope they can reach factory capacity, but I'm not so certain they will sell 155K R2's in the first few years....especially if the true production ramp doesn't happen until Q4 2026 or Q1 2027...competition should be fierce by then...very fierce.
I'm not sure that's true.

Given the current political fight against progress and anything that can be considered 'green' and/or 'good for the environment,' and their subsequent takedown of all incentives. Notwithstanding none of the incumbent manufacturers are doing a very good job vying for BEV adoptions, so they're shutting down and cutting lines.

I'd be *pleasantly* surprised if there's really any competition at all, and completely flabbergasted if there's 'fierce' levels of competition for the R2. ESPECIALLY when you look at what it could presumably be 'competing with.' Which right now are what? Volvo C30, CX40, Tesla Model Y, and a couple of Hyundai and Kia models (which can arguably be chalked up to more of a 'crossover' than SUV). Am I forgetting any? [Subaru Solterra/Toyota BZ4X is hot garbage, so that doesn't count. Lucid is super-ultra premium, especially in price, so it's not like the Gravity belongs in this conversation.]

On paper, the R2 has more range, more performance, and competitive costing, assuming they meet the goals they've set out with the concept cars they're parading around (which I think there's a high-ish level of probability). Plus it's Rivian.

So, pray tell where do you believe we'll see this competition?
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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I hope they can reach factory capacity, but I'm not so certain they will sell 155K R2's in the first few years....especially if the true production ramp doesn't happen until Q4 2026 or Q1 2027...competition should be fierce by then...very fierce.
I think the R2 will be a compelling vehicle that will do well within the segment. I'm not sure they'll get there in 2026 but I think by 2027 they can max out Normal IL production on the R2 line with demand. They aren't apples to apples, but if you look at MY sales it is feasible.

I'm not so sure. It gives current owners (esp early R1 owners) enough time inbetween to trade out and get an R2 without holding on to wait for the R3.

I really want the R3X over an R2 but I''m not going to hold on to my 2022 R1T till 2028 so I'll trade it next yr for an R2. Maybe I'll then run the R2 for a couple of years and then trade it for the R3X or just add the R3X.

Sure, some might lose patience, but I also think it limits the downside of throwing loads of choice at the market all at once.
That's the boat I'm in. I love the idea of the R3X, but with a '22 R1T with 48k miles and a rapidly approaching warranty end, I don't like the idea of keeping it for another 3 years waiting. A trade for the R2 is very timely, and then after a few years with it I can decide if I'd rather just keep it or trade for the R3X.
 

DJFrerichs

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My guess is playing it conservatively until they start shipping the R2 out of Normal.

I imagine they have had many of the same conversations in their board rooms since November 5th that have been bouncing around here. Might be prudent to get deep into 2025 to get a feel for the new landscape before going full speed into that project.
Checkout Google Earth....the GA site is already stripped an rough graded as Rivian already owns the property. The local AHJ must have allowed them to perform site work at risk. Check out the DOE proposal as it outlines the construction schedule on how they will get to a 2028 production timeline. I believe feel they will be sneaking R3X into Normal R2 production line for an early 2027 delivery after they get R2 running smoothly And/OR leverage the new Scout Plant that is designed/constructed as a contractual multi-production auto plant for Scout and any other car manufacturer that has needs. R3X could be partially built in at the Scout plant then shipped to Normal for final assembly/finishing. Again, all theoretical, but the possibilities are there.
 

UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan

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Checkout Google Earth....the GA site is already stripped an rough graded as Rivian already owns the property. The local AHJ must have allowed them to perform site work at risk. Check out the DOE proposal as it outlines the construction schedule on how they will get to a 2028 production timeline. I believe feel they will be sneaking R3X into Normal R2 production line for an early 2027 delivery after they get R2 running smoothly And/OR leverage the new Scout Plant that is designed/constructed as a contractual multi-production auto plant for Scout and any other car manufacturer that has needs. R3X could be partially built in at the Scout plant then shipped to Normal for final assembly/finishing. Again, all theoretical, but the possibilities are there.
Manufacturing is not a part of the joint venture, as it stands, full stop. The agreement is only on zonal computing architecture and the software dev stack (not including UI/UX or autonomy). Both hint at a expansion to include bundling together large vendor orders for shared components, in order to lower costs through economy of scale.

R3X reservations have yet to begin. First opening week of R2 reservations they got something like 60k. That figure has to be over 100k by now. IMO, hoping for R3X production to start at Normal is wishful thinking. Regardless of your personal affinity towards the R3X, R2 is positioned in the largest segment of the total car market—precisely why they've prioritized its launch ahead of R3-anything. The mid-size CUV segment is bread and butter main staple for every OEM. R3 is value meal. R3X is desert. R1 is prime rib territory.
 
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DJFrerichs

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Manufacturing is not a part of the joint venture, as it stands, full stop. The agreement is only on zonal computing architecture and the software dev stack (not including UI/UX or autonomy). Both hint at a expansion to include bundling together large vendor orders for shared components, in order to lower costs through economy of scale.
I am well aware of the JV deal and what it includes as that is completely separate of what I am saying here..…I am talking about the Scout plant design and how it’s set up for “contract” manufacturing of other auto manufacturers needs. Nothing has been said if it will be entertained by Rivian, but the option is there to potentially entertain if the Normal plant can’t fully take on to get the R3X into market in 2027 as they have mentioned.
 

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R2 production will start in Normal, but ramp up to meet expected demand will require the Georgia plan. R3/R3X is slated for Georgia as well. 2028 is a long ways away for the R3/R3X. Rivian might be regretting revealing it too soon.
3 year lease on a gen2 R1 leads us right into 2028 with the r3x release
 

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Georgia is a swing state. Hopefully Trump agrees that it's best not to piss off the locals by messing with our economy.
 

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Georgia is a swing state. Hopefully Trump agrees that it's best not to piss off the locals by messing with our economy.
I doubt Trump cares much about his future electoral fortunes in Georgia, but someone like Brian Kemp could be really motivated to make sure this loan doesn't get the kibosh.
 

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I doubt Trump cares much about his future electoral fortunes in Georgia, but someone like Brian Kemp could be really motivated to make sure this loan doesn't get the kibosh.
This project is in alignment with everything Trump wants for our country....American manufacturing, automotive sector and next gen technology. Go USA :)
 

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I hope they can reach factory capacity, but I'm not so certain they will sell 155K R2's in the first few years....especially if the true production ramp doesn't happen until Q4 2026 or Q1 2027...competition should be fierce by then...very fierce.
I'm pretty confident they can make it. Tesla sold about 650k Model Y's in the US last year. The market is large enough at this price point to get to 150k+ units.

They'll need some more service centers before a big ramp, but that's a solvable problem.

Rivian will also start selling in Europe eventually. They might be hoping for GA to come online before entering that market (my speculation). But they could move that timing around if needed.
 

UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan

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I'm pretty confident they can make it. Tesla sold about 650k Model Y's in the US last year. The market is large enough at this price point to get to 150k+ units.

They'll need some more service centers before a big ramp, but that's a solvable problem.

Rivian will also start selling in Europe eventually. They might be hoping for GA to come online before entering that market (my speculation). But they could move that timing around if needed.
Yup. Demand and production is not the problem. After-sales support is. Within first 24 hours of R2 reservations being open, they got 68k. What they have now has to be well over 155k. Hopeful reservations holders are already reading the subreddits' incessant bitching about service and getting scared.
 

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The reservations do not matter, the Cyber Truck had nearly a million of them at one point. What matters is converting that reservation to an actual sale. The R2 and R3/X will most definitely sell well...come on Rivian, hurry up :)
 

UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan

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The reservations do not matter, the Cyber Truck had nearly a million of them at one point. What matters is converting that reservation to an actual sale. The R2 and R3/X will most definitely sell well...come on Rivian, hurry up :)
Seriously? comparing CT to R2 and trying to assume consumer behavior would be the same? Look at the prices of the two. Not to mention specs and prices changed wildly for CT between concept pitch to production. Watermelon to grape.
 

savethemanual

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Seriously? comparing CT to R2 and trying to assume consumer behavior would be the same? Look at the prices of the two. Not to mention specs and prices changed wildly for CT between concept pitch to production. Watermelon to grape.
OK, wow...easy there.

The point is still very valid, I know many that have plunked down $100 bucks for refundable reservations on several vehicles at the same time while they wait for them to come out, then will make up their mind on which one will be the final purchase later. Converting those reservations to sales are what matters, it's only a Benjamin to reserve.
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