Upcoming Gen 2 R1S incentives? Order now or wait it out?

[OldGoat]

I wouldn't call timing a move to be a foolish act really. Being foolish would be the opposite in going into things blind without putting any thought into it. That'd be a fool in my books.

I don't think the comment was meant to suggest it is foolish to research things but rather there are far too many unknown variables, both extant and in the future to be able to know the 'correct' answer. Heck, just the results of the survey prove it's all a guess (unless you have insider info and, even then, things can change).

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[Electron]

I don't think the comment was meant to suggest it is foolish to research things but rather there are far too many unknown variables, both extant and in the future to be able to know the 'correct' answer. Heck, just the results of the survey prove it's all a guess (unless you have insider info and, even then, things can change).

Yea I get it, just that I had assumed the intent of this thread would be better understood given the current timing of sitting at the last month of Q3, along with just one quarter left for Rivian to come through on its "claims." At least for me it's a legitimate question given the tall order ahead.

I'm just doing my part in trying to help contribute to reaching those "claims" and "numbers," in hopes to help Rivian reach that goal of being in positive gross profit by Q4 of this year, by ordering a Gen 2.

The thread is more so a thinking out loud with the fellow Rivian clan to get some input, although most of it is rhetorical, either way I'll be ordering one and there's no harm in discussing this topic that others might be curious about as well.

This is far from just chasing the next big thing. That's not what this thread is about.

I appreciate all the great input so far.

 

[OldGoat]

Yea I get it, just that I had assumed the intent of this thread would be better understood given the current timing of sitting at the last month of Q3, along with just one quarter left for Rivian to come through on its "claims." At least for me it's a legitimate question given the tall order ahead.

I'm just doing my part in trying to help contribute to reaching those "claims" and "numbers," in hopes to help Rivian reach that goal of being in positive gross profit by Q4 of this year, by ordering a Gen 2.

The thread is more so a thinking out loud with the fellow Rivian clan to get some input, although most of it is rhetorical, either way I'll be ordering one and there's no harm in discussing this topic that others might be curious about as well.

This is far from just chasing the next big thing. That's not what this thread is about.

I appreciate all the great input so far.

Yeah, it's just a coin toss. In my own case, original preorder for a quad max-pack, power tonneau. Kept waiting patiently and then when it became apparent that the quad, max would not be made, I decided in Feb '23 to say to heck with it and just get a regular pack (less the power tonneau and a switch to the 21's to recoup some range). In late March they called with a truck that fit and pushed to close on March 30th...obviously based on a desire to push as many sales into the quarter as possible. As I wasn't financing, I said fine. Unfortunately for them, they had their signals crossed regarding pickup vs delivery. With ATL being 4+ hours away, I was always signed up for delivery. The day before pickup/delivery they called about pickup time to which I said (in my best Jim Mora impersonation) 'What's that? pickup?, pickup? what are you talking about' ALas, they delivered it the following week making me one of the first Q2 deliveries.

Jim Mora - Playoffs??! (youtube.com)

 

[Electron]

Some interesting data that seemed interesting. Curious how y'all interpret this from your perspective.

As for my take, that $5B VW sugar daddy money is not fully realized so it's important to take that into account. It goes another layer beyond that even with the $1B at play currently.

Also I think the bigger challenge here is really figuring out manufacturing efficiency without sacrificing quality.

I find it highly likely that there will be incentives in Q4, but that's just my opinion.

 

[Sundin67]

I am hoping for a better deal come year-end. The lease on my current car is up in early December. A friend who works at a Cadillac dealership told me they never know what the end-of-year deals are until Dec. Typically they are better, however, Rivian is a different animal.

 

[Electron]

I am hoping for a better deal come year-end. The lease on my current car is up in early December. A friend who works at a Cadillac dealership told me they never know what the end-of-year deals are until Dec. Typically they are better, however, Rivian is a different animal.

You're in a perfect scenario timing wise with your lease ending, aligning perfectly to when historically the best deals exist in the auto world in general.

December being the last quarter with desperate auto makers trying to sell as much as they can have always played in the favor or buyers with being able to get the best deals of the year.

Speaking of desperation, Rivian is far from being comfortable or immune so the chances of some sweet deals in Q4, particularly in December is very very high, despite Rivian being a different animal. Even Tesla is struggling and Tesla is light years ahead of Rivian in pretty much all metrics. It's not even close.

Exciting times, in the buyers favor.

 

[Mathme]

I'd be more inclined to wait on a Gen 2 until more have rolled off the line. Let someone else deal with the hassle of Rivian getting their production issues sorted out. There's been some stories of quality issues of late with some of the Gen 2 builds.

I think the other factor driving any future deals will be more around the total number of units sold in 2024. I believe Rivian has said they will sell about 57k units and be at that number or slightly higher to show Wall Street they know how to plan their business. If the year looks to have many more than that 57k, then no deals. if it looks to be low, they may have more deals. This is just speculation on my part, but Rivian needs to show the street they know their business and give accurate projections on it...

 

[Electron]

I'd be more inclined to wait on a Gen 2 until more have rolled off the line. Let someone else deal with the hassle of Rivian getting their production issues sorted out. There's been some stories of quality issues of late with some of the Gen 2 builds.

I think the other factor driving any future deals will be more around the total number of units sold in 2024. I believe Rivian has said they will sell about 57k units and be at that number or slightly higher to show Wall Street they know how to plan their business. If the year looks to have many more than that 57k, then no deals. if it looks to be low, they may have more deals. This is just speculation on my part, but Rivian needs to show the street they know their business and give accurate projections on it...

Now with a self served of lowering the bar to 47000-49000 from the 57,000, with using the excuse of it being due to parts shortages, I think we're on a different trajectory now with definitely some incentives to come in Q4.

Rivian is facing a demand problem right now.

 

[Sundin67]

I do not follow how the supply chain or a factory being out of operation affected the Q3 sales numbers.

They produced more vehicles than they sold (produced 13,157 sold 10,018) If the supply chain and factory did not have issues and they made 16,000 cars would they have still sold the same 10,018?

I am not an economist, but I must be missing something basic.

As Electron said above, I am hoping for end-of-year incentives.

 

[Electron]

I do not follow how the supply chain or a factory being out of operation affected the Q3 sales numbers.

They produced more vehicles than they sold (produced 13,157 sold 10,018) If the supply chain and factory did not have issues and they made 16,000 cars would they have still sold the same 10,018?

I am not an economist, but I must be missing something basic.

As Electron said above, I am hoping for end-of-year incentives.

You're spot on my friend. This is a demand problem, but the confusion comes from the conveniently timed & crafted excuse of trying to pin it on a supply issue.

Some people have a hard time understanding that even despite the boost from the voucher holders, Rivian still missed the mark.

So the big question is, what makes people think that they'll crush it in Q4 with all of the variables at play?

 

[evguy]

You're spot on my friend. This is a demand problem, but the confusion comes from the conveniently timed & crafted excuse of trying to pin it on a supply issue.

Some people have a hard time understanding that even despite the boost from the voucher holders, Rivian still missed the mark.

So the big question is, what makes people think that they'll crush it in Q4 with all of the variables at play?

I'm not sure there's evidence of any new demand problem. On the Q2 earnings call, RJ said Q3 deliveries would likely be down as they build inventory following the Q2 shutdown. And while they've now reduced the 2024 production guidance (due to the supply issue), they're maintaining the 2024 deliveries guidance. So Q4 is still all about marketing/incentives to stimulate sales without any vouchers bringing average selling price down. How all of this impacts the goal of a "modest" gross profit in Q4, I have no idea, hopefully we'll find out on Nov. 7.

 

[Eric9610]

My buddy just did a demo drive at Costa Mesa Service Center and he was told they have cars in stock at the SC that are not in the online shop, this is very similar to how Tesla operates. They sent him a list of cars available immediately that do not show up in the shop. These are not cars that were rejected at delivery, they are cars that match the most common build by SC location. They will have an incentive.

 

[sockdoc82]

Now that it’s November and I can lease (yeah for adding Idaho!) do any of you with more insight and experience “think” better deals may be in store for December vs the current 3k gas-hybrid incentive?

 

[Electron]

Now that it’s November and I can lease (yeah for adding Idaho!) do any of you with more insight and experience “think” better deals may be in store for December vs the current 3k gas-hybrid incentive?

I think so. December is consistently and almost always the best time to buy with the strongest incentives available in the auto world.

I'm waiting it out until Dec myself. We'll see what happens.

 

[meshugy]

Well, it’s now December. I think everyone was expecting more aggressive incentives this month. However, the imminent demise of the Ev credit is probably already giving Rivian a large boost in sales. Rivian may calculate that their sales volume is already more than adequate and decline to offer any further discounts for the year. The combination of the Hybrid/Gas deal with the EV credits ($10500 total saving) in Nov may have been the best deal we’ll see for a while. Of course there is still the $3500 loyalty bonus for current Rivian owners so there is still time for those trading up to Gen 2 or adding another Rivian.

Anecdotally, it does seem that inventory on Rivian Roamer is on the low side right now. I’ve been watching it for a few months and typically the inventory of R1S models is in the 800-1000 range. I know it’s not really a true inventory count, but it is worth noting it’s below 700 now.

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