Trump to kill EV tax credit (11/14/24 article) -- [ADMIN WARNING: INFRACTIONS ISSUED FOR VIOLATING NO POLITICS RULE]

[vandy1981]

Do you have some kind of data, a behavioral study perhaps, that backs up your assertion that most people operate under your financial principles? I don’t think most people operate that way, people operate on emotion and value means different things to different people so you can’t really say the credit will be a central factor anymore than I can say it won’t.

I am one of the people who @bdwalters is describing. It doesn't matter if it's most people, killing the tax credit is going to affect a market that needs to be selling as many EVs as possible to gain the magnitude of scale to compete with Tesla.

The cost of an object is a factor and if it is within the affordable range, then it's no longer in consideration. There are other factors that matters in the decision making. In other words, the first filter is am I able to afford it without impacting our daily lives. If so, it no longer enters the value equation.

I can assure you that the tax credit is a factor even for people who have no problem affording it at full price. I am one of those people.

Wealthy people can be cheap, otherwise you wouldn't see those who own $130K Taycans using their free charging at EA in a Walmart parking lot when they could charge at home.

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[vandy1981]

The R1 was never the vehicle that would do that for Rivian.

Selling more R1s is good for the company, full stop.

 

[doit82]

Well someone is just for the squid-pro-stabus - keep doing what we are doing until we are begging China.

I agree that america should transition away from its dependence on China. Unfortunately the economics of massive tariff policy (as economists have pointed out) would be detrimental to the american economy with the brunt of it experienced by the ones that can afford it the least through massive inflation. The government has other policy levers that it can pull such as incentivizing business to bring manufacturing ashore without massive tariffs that land on the head of those that can the least afford them. I am in the fortunate position to be able to avoid buying things manufactured in China whenever possible, but most of the american public that is obsessed with shopping at costco or walmart can not. Hopefully that was policy based enough.

 

[bdwalters]

The R1 was never the vehicle that would do that for Rivian.

You are absolutely right. The R2 is the mass market vehicle. And those buyers are far more price sensitive than R1 buyers! The TAM decreases as the price increases. Thus is ECON 101.

 

[doit82]

You are absolutely right. The R2 is the mass market vehicle. And those buyers are far more price sensitive than R1 buyers! The TAM decreases as the price increases. Thus is ECON 101.

I just dont understand everyone on here trying to argue that something at a lower price will not sell more volume than something at a higher price. There is no need for further details.

 

[SASSquatch]

I think you overlooked the fact that legacy ICE companies are subsidizing Tesla, Rivian and Lucid by purchasing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of green credits from them. They’ll be fine

Tesla is going to be fine. Rivian is losing ~$1B per quarter.

They are not going to be fine. The green credits are a literal drop in the bucket.

Rivian is still losing ~$40K for every vehicle they sell.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

You are absolutely right. The R2 is the mass market vehicle. And those buyers are far more price sensitive than R1 buyers! The TAM decreases as the price increases. Thus is ECON 101.

I just dont understand everyone on here trying to argue that something at a lower price will not sell more volume than something at a higher price. There is no need for further details.

It's not that simple, and none of you know how much impact the tax credit will or will not have on the R2. No one will get the credit for anything, and if tariffs go through Rivian might be in a BETTER spot than they are currently. Until this shakes out more you really have no basis for your claims.

If you see this as a simplistic issue, you don't understand the nuance and the different variables at play here. The economy doesn't operate in a vacuum, and as such, looking at one tiny piece, tax credit, isn't enough to draw any valuable conclusions.

 

[vandy1981]

They are not going to be fine. The green credits are a literal drop in the bucket.

They're projecting $300 million in regulatory credit sales per year. It's not insignificant and would disproportionately affect the startup EV companies over Tesla.

 

[Redline]

FYI, this is the guy who is talking to Trump about getting ride of the EV credit.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Hamm


Yeah……he’s simply doing this to help the oil industry. That’s it.

 

[mkg3]

...I can assure you that the tax credit is a factor even for people who have no problem affording it at full price. I am one of those people.

Wealthy people can be cheap, otherwise you wouldn't see those who own $130K Taycans using their free charging at EA in a Walmart parking lot when they could charge at home.

It only matters to those that can afford it because it's a windfall. No one wants to leave it on the table, when it given.

It's not a matter of being cheap. It's the notion of getting something for free or nothing that you are doing.

 

[captainjp]

Tesla is going to be fine. Rivian is losing ~$1B per quarter.

They are not going to be fine. The green credits are a literal drop in the bucket.

Rivian is still losing ~$40K for every vehicle they sell.

You consider $300 million a drop in the bucket?

 

[mkg3]

You are absolutely right. The R2 is the mass market vehicle. And those buyers are far more price sensitive than R1 buyers! The TAM decreases as the price increases. Thus is ECON 101.

Along the line of economic 101, you also need to note that the price elasticity is independent of the product within the category.

R2 needs to be compelling relative to its peers regardless of EV or ICE in the price range. If it is, it will capture larger market share of those peer range.

Your original statement is true for all vehicles, not just R2. R2 just needs to be better.

 

[mkg3]

You consider $300 million a drop in the bucket?

Depends on the total magnitude of revenue. It may be a round off error in some instance. Needs to be in a context.

 

[captainjp]

They're projecting $300 million in regulatory credit sales per year. It's not insignificant and would disproportionately affect the startup EV companies over Tesla.

For ‘24 and ‘25. Most likely higher in subsequent years

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

It’s also more than a little disingenuous to Hummer, DeLorean, Fisker and the hundred others that are out there in the sales struggle bus. I’m sure most would happily trade place with Rivian to get their sales, engineering and even this forums engagement participation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States

lol there aren’t even 100 on the list.

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