the long way downunder
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- #1
Today, every "self directed retail investor" and institutional trader alike is at a loss in their $RIVN position.
Today, "everyone" was reading the news hoping to understand "why?"
Today it was the COO retirement.
Yesterday:
… Amazon deal with Stellantis (RAM trucks.)
… increasing interest rates.
… the "bro culture" litigation.
Each of these rationalizations and after-the-fact causation explanations is to be dismissed.
The "news" does not drive the price of a given stock; news is the explanation the media use after the event to attract eyeballs and clicks to sell advertising on and subscription to their media sites.
The price of $RIVN exists within the context of the tech startup world, startup speculation, and the electric vehicle market.
We're going to ride these larger market moves for years to come. We've seen this week that Rivian is not coupled to Tesla.
We can look at clouds in the sky and see a fluffy bunny, or stars in the night sky and see gods and kitchen utensils … the human mind is receptive to explanations.
It's fun and makes sense when the price is up from $100 to $170.
It's painful and wrong when dropping back to $80.
Keep in mind $70 makes Rivian an $80B company – one of the largest automakers, which will require years of performance to meet that price expectation.
I suggest the logical conclusion is to measure $RIVN as a speculative long term position, not based on fundamentals, technical analysis or news.
I am invested in Rivian as the only company other than Tesla which has proven capable of building an electric vehicle and capable of scaling to production volumes that will challenge the auto industry in the transition from "burn stuff" to electric.
For those asking "why?" and "what to do now?" I offer the following decision tree branches:
Today, "everyone" was reading the news hoping to understand "why?"
Today it was the COO retirement.
Yesterday:
… Amazon deal with Stellantis (RAM trucks.)
… increasing interest rates.
… the "bro culture" litigation.
Each of these rationalizations and after-the-fact causation explanations is to be dismissed.
The "news" does not drive the price of a given stock; news is the explanation the media use after the event to attract eyeballs and clicks to sell advertising on and subscription to their media sites.
The price of $RIVN exists within the context of the tech startup world, startup speculation, and the electric vehicle market.
We're going to ride these larger market moves for years to come. We've seen this week that Rivian is not coupled to Tesla.
We can look at clouds in the sky and see a fluffy bunny, or stars in the night sky and see gods and kitchen utensils … the human mind is receptive to explanations.
It's fun and makes sense when the price is up from $100 to $170.
It's painful and wrong when dropping back to $80.
Keep in mind $70 makes Rivian an $80B company – one of the largest automakers, which will require years of performance to meet that price expectation.
I suggest the logical conclusion is to measure $RIVN as a speculative long term position, not based on fundamentals, technical analysis or news.
I am invested in Rivian as the only company other than Tesla which has proven capable of building an electric vehicle and capable of scaling to production volumes that will challenge the auto industry in the transition from "burn stuff" to electric.
For those asking "why?" and "what to do now?" I offer the following decision tree branches:
- Have you acquired your full position size in $RIVN for your portfolio?
- If below full size, continue accumulation below your cost basis or wait for the chance of lower prices.
- If at full size, do not increase the position size attempting to lower cost basis (prices can always go lower just as likely as they can go higher.)
- If at full size, hold the position for the intended duration of the original plan, which should have been speculative for years, not days or weeks.
- Are you trading?
- Learn to sell options.
- Do not attempt to "trade" in and out of a position day to day or hour or hour until having proven you can work profitably.
- Check this thread in a year and see if you then want to sell your $RIVN position for $100. ("learn to sell options")
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