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The "news" did not change the price of $RIVN.

the long way downunder

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Today, every "self directed retail investor" and institutional trader alike is at a loss in their $RIVN position.
Today, "everyone" was reading the news hoping to understand "why?"
Today it was the COO retirement.
Yesterday:
… Amazon deal with Stellantis (RAM trucks.)
… increasing interest rates.
… the "bro culture" litigation.
Each of these rationalizations and after-the-fact causation explanations is to be dismissed.

The "news" does not drive the price of a given stock; news is the explanation the media use after the event to attract eyeballs and clicks to sell advertising on and subscription to their media sites.

The price of $RIVN exists within the context of the tech startup world, startup speculation, and the electric vehicle market.
We're going to ride these larger market moves for years to come. We've seen this week that Rivian is not coupled to Tesla.

We can look at clouds in the sky and see a fluffy bunny, or stars in the night sky and see gods and kitchen utensils … the human mind is receptive to explanations.
It's fun and makes sense when the price is up from $100 to $170.
It's painful and wrong when dropping back to $80.

Keep in mind $70 makes Rivian an $80B company – one of the largest automakers, which will require years of performance to meet that price expectation.

I suggest the logical conclusion is to measure $RIVN as a speculative long term position, not based on fundamentals, technical analysis or news.
I am invested in Rivian as the only company other than Tesla which has proven capable of building an electric vehicle and capable of scaling to production volumes that will challenge the auto industry in the transition from "burn stuff" to electric.

For those asking "why?" and "what to do now?" I offer the following decision tree branches:
  1. Have you acquired your full position size in $RIVN for your portfolio?
    1. If below full size, continue accumulation below your cost basis or wait for the chance of lower prices.
    2. If at full size, do not increase the position size attempting to lower cost basis (prices can always go lower just as likely as they can go higher.)
    3. If at full size, hold the position for the intended duration of the original plan, which should have been speculative for years, not days or weeks.
  2. Are you trading?
    1. Learn to sell options.
    2. Do not attempt to "trade" in and out of a position day to day or hour or hour until having proven you can work profitably.
    3. Check this thread in a year and see if you then want to sell your $RIVN position for $100. ("learn to sell options")
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moosehead

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After hours trading today absolutely looks correlative to the after closing news of the COO "planned" departure. RIVN closed at $81.44 and as of 800PM is at $78.75.

I would agree with you that Rivian is a long-term speculative stock with consumer tailwinds. However, I do not believe they have yet to prove they can scale successfully which defines a bulk of the speculation.
 
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the long way downunder

the long way downunder

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After hours trading today absolutely looks correlative to the after closing news of the COO "planned" departure. RIVN closed at $81.44 and as of 800PM is at $78.75.

I would agree with you that Rivian is a long-term speculative stock with consumer tailwinds. However, I do not believe they have yet to prove they can scale successfully which defines a bulk of the speculation.
Rivian will need years to prove it can scale up. These are going to be competitive years.
Tesla had the advantage of fully 20 years without competitors.

As for $81 this or $78 that … there's zero "correlation" with the COO news – a $3 move in $RIVN isn't a distinct event. I don't think there's any way to decipher the "why" of price behavior, especially after hours.

Sidenote: I was wondering if $RIVN would start to move "with" $TSLA or tech (NASDAQ) but so far, there's no rhyme to it (not that it would be of significance if RIVN had a high correlation with TSLA (such connections tend to break just when traders rely upon them.)
 

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Rivian will need years to prove it can scale up. These are going to be competitive years.
Tesla had the advantage of fully 20 years without competitors.

As for $81 this or $78 that … there's zero "correlation" with the COO news – a $3 move in $RIVN isn't a distinct event. I don't think there's any way to decipher the "why" of price behavior, especially after hours.

Sidenote: I was wondering if $RIVN would start to move "with" $TSLA or tech (NASDAQ) but so far, there's no rhyme to it (not that it would be of significance if RIVN had a high correlation with TSLA (such connections tend to break just when traders rely upon them.)
Every article this morning says the stock is falling based on:
1. The COO unannounced retirement.
2. In Mid Dec they forecasted 1200 trucks would be made and they missed that number 2 weeks later by 15%. How do you miss by 15% 2 weeks later?Their forecasting is as good as their communication with the customer.
 

Max

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If you don't want to read the news just look at the almost identical bumps and flip the coin to see how many more there will be:

Rivian R1T R1S The "news" did not change the price of $RIVN. 1641911583627
 

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Sidenote: I was wondering if $RIVN would start to move "with" $TSLA or tech (NASDAQ) but so far, there's no rhyme to it (not that it would be of significance if RIVN had a high correlation with TSLA (such connections tend to break just when traders rely upon them.)

At one point I thought I was seeing an inverse correlation. People wanting to keep money in the EV space but talk profits in Tesla but that was just coincidence. Not enough history here to really look at chart patterns.
 

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Every article this morning says the stock is falling based on:
1. The COO unannounced retirement.
2. In Mid Dec they forecasted 1200 trucks would be made and they missed that number 2 weeks later by 15%. How do you miss by 15% 2 weeks later?Their forecasting is as good as their communication with the customer.
Well #2 is blatantly false as we know, so we should stop spreading falsities or else people believe it to be true. They forecasted 1,200 pre-IPO in early November. In mid-December they provided an update that they would miss that by "several hundred". It appears they ultimately came in between those two, but hard to say what was meant by "several".
 

AdamsFan1983

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they really will print anything: There several are dozen Twitter bros panicking because they bought puts at low prices and the stock isn’t free falling.

so they blast Twitter and post blatantly false blogs like this (and it gets picked up by news aggregation algorithms-suddenly people believe it).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rivian-rivn-ceo-resigns-amid-142502138.html
 
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the long way downunder

the long way downunder

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If you don't want to read the news just look at the almost identical bumps and flip the coin to see how many more there will be:

1641911583627.png
I enjoy a good graphic … graph … chart … what is this one?
(and what are "almost identical bumps"?)
 
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the long way downunder

the long way downunder

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Well #2 is blatantly false as we know, so we should stop spreading falsities or else people believe it to be true. They forecasted 1,200 pre-IPO in early November. In mid-December they provided an update that they would miss that by "several hundred". It appears they ultimately came in between those two, but hard to say what was meant by "several".
Thanks … I didn't notice this 1,200 number bouncing around (again … I'm not much of one to read "the news" … I much rather read the facts than the fiction) … before the 1015 number was a fact, if you'd asked me, I would have said "just a few hundred, mostly to employees and 2 R1S went to the royalty" … it's just not relevant (in my humble) to the price expectations.
If Rivian had built nearly zero vehicles (hello, Lucid …) or had a 50% recall (hello, Tesla) then I'd take those facts and consider my degree of confidence in that EV maker as a serious long term competitor. Yes, I seriously question whether Tesla will continue to build cars in 2030 or just build battery factories and components (motors, structural battery packs, large castings, ADAS) to license production to factory operator partners around the world for vehicles and stationary batteries, solar and grids. Their recent battery deal with CATL and their 50% of production in China suggests Tesla is a global electric vehicle equipment and components manufacturer primarily concerned with batteries and building big AF factories.) I hope to see Rivian describe its next factory as primarily for batteries, but first, let's see a fully robotic assembly line for Rivian vehicles.
 

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Max

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I enjoy a good graphic … graph … chart … what is this one?
(and what are "almost identical bumps"?)
This is RIVN after the IPO surge. Behaviour of the drop under each white curve is the same. it almost "feels" like you can predict more accurately by this than the facts and the news.
 

rivianfan1

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they really will print anything: There several are dozen Twitter bros panicking because they bought puts at low prices and the stock isn’t free falling.

so they blast Twitter and post blatantly false blogs like this (and it gets picked up by news aggregation algorithms-suddenly people believe it).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rivian-rivn-ceo-resigns-amid-142502138.html
How its still up with the blatant inaccuracy of calling the COO as CEO is a mystery or its not!

Then there is this:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478897-rivian-is-too-late-to-the-ev-party

which claims rivian is late to the party with numbers which are basically late for an article published on Jan 10th:

1. In the article published almost close to month after the first results it gets the number of preorders wrong, it is 71k pre-orders & not 48k.


2. It then states if rivian has a 100% conversion rate they will achieve only 3.4 million usd in revenue, when in fact a 100% rate will be close to 3.4 Billion usd.


3. They announced a plant in Georgia with 400k capacity operational by 2024. Plus increase the capacity to normal plant to 200k, while the article states rivian has plans for only 300k vehicles per year.

Sometimes it looks like coordinated attack to defend a short position or bring down the price for some reason.
 
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the long way downunder

the long way downunder

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How its still up with the blatant inaccuracy of calling the COO as CEO is a mystery or its not!

Then there is this:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478897-rivian-is-too-late-to-the-ev-party

which claims rivian is late to the party with numbers which are basically late for an article published on Jan 10th:

1. In the article published almost close to month after the first results it gets the number of preorders wrong, it is 71k pre-orders & not 48k.


2. It then states if rivian has a 100% conversion rate they will achieve only 3.4 million usd in revenue, when in fact a 100% rate will be close to 3.4 Billion usd.


3. They announced a plant in Georgia with 400k capacity operational by 2024. Plus increase the capacity to normal plant to 200k, while the article states rivian has plans for only 300k vehicles per year.

Sometimes it looks like coordinated attack to defend a short position or bring down the price for some reason.
1) can't believe yahoo finance still exists (or "Zach research")
2) zero fact-checking aside, all errors are biased (heavy) to the negative (smacks of a hit job)
 
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the long way downunder

the long way downunder

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This is RIVN after the IPO surge. Behaviour of the drop under each white curve is the same. it almost "feels" like you can predict more accurately by this than the facts and the news.
I see, the white line is a drawing, not a plot of numbers. Looks a bit like cycle brackets:
Rivian R1T R1S The "news" did not change the price of $RIVN. 1641930785376

There's not enough day chart data for me to model $RIVN price behavior, but it's starting to come into focus in the last two weeks. By the next earnings I'll have it.
Rivian R1T R1S The "news" did not change the price of $RIVN. 1641931599291
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