The Elephant in the Room [ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICAL DISCUSSION]

[Donald Stanfield]

True. I'm not sure ICE is going to pickup. I think EVs are going to take a hit though, but long term EVs will take over. There's no stopping them. Speedbumping, yes.

Rivian needs those credits NOW.... and we have 4 years of Trump to wade through.

The other issue is whether Trump's Mexico tariff will happen. That would end all Big 3 manufacturing in Mexico for affordable sedans.

At this point and for the sake of the environment, I'd like all the tariffs thrown out and let Chinese vehicles pour in. A $35,000 truck with 350 miles of EV range would be nice. Right now the cheapest electric truck is the F150 Lighting with 220 miles of range for $65,000.

That’s a terrible idea for the environment and economy. China isn’t exactly green with their pollution and giving China superiority while tanking our economy will not do the west any good.

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[Donald Stanfield]

You think Rivian has a chance to simply "cease to exist"? You don't think RJ would sell to another entity first? Or more likely (IMO) find more diluting $?

Someone would need to be willing to buy it and diluting the share price isn’t going to work. Who’s going to buy the additional shares if Rivian cannot turn a profit or who’s going to buy them out if they aren’t profitable?

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Better hope GM chapter 11 round two gets the same bailout treatment.

Is GM going bankrupt again? I thought they were profitable.

 

[R1TS]

True. I'm not sure ICE is going to pickup. I think EVs are going to take a hit though, but long term EVs will take over. There's no stopping them. Speedbumping, yes.

Rivian needs those credits NOW.... and we have 4 years of Trump to wade through.

The other issue is whether Trump's Mexico tariff will happen. That would end all Big 3 manufacturing in Mexico for affordable sedans.

At this point and for the sake of the environment, I'd like all the tariffs thrown out and let Chinese vehicles pour in. A $35,000 truck with 350 miles of EV range would be nice. Right now the cheapest electric truck is the F150 Lighting with 220 miles of range for $65,000.

I do hope we could see cheaper Chinese EVs in our market. That would surely give Tesla a run to make EVs even more affordable. Tesla has the margins even now to compete.

Rivian is just not in a good position whichever way you look at it.

 

[Jonger1150]

Is GM going bankrupt again? I thought they were profitable.

The last I heard their EV division was actually doing well.

Trump's win is only really going to impact two companies. Rivian and Lucid. Those are the only two American companies trying to solidify a new American automotive company. Tesla benefitted from being the only game in town. I don't see the Scout brand surviving either.

EVs have a 10% US market share.... by 2027 with a democratic win it would probably be north of 25%. With Trump, we're probably looking at 15%. That's 10% less buyers. Not half, but almost half.

 

[mkhuffman]

I think his anti EV rhetoric is just talk. He won’t push mandates but he will largely leave EVs alone. If only for the strategy of not falling behind China which we might already be.

This. ^^^ Beating China was a huge part of his platform.

I know he is critical of EV mandates, but mandates in general are a horrible idea IMO. Getting rid of them and allowing companies to compete fairly is a much better approach. And he has already said he would stop China from dumping cheap EVs here, so he already has plans to protect Rivian and all domestic manufacturing.

I think RIVN going down today is a reaction to the election. And I think it is an overreaction. I might buy some more stock if it keeps going down. I need to drop my average purchase price anyway.

Yes, Rivian is a high-risk investment both from a stock perspective and from a vehicle perspective. But I don't think they have a worse chance because of the election. If they fail, it will because of their own failure to get their cost under control. Not because of an election.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Is GM going bankrupt again? I thought they were profitable.

Ramos produces quite a few of their EVs, just a start to the expected tariffs on Mexican imports.

 

[Shorebreak]

What we're seeing today is the equivalent of a company winning a big development contract or government contract - and then their named competitors are priced as not winning that business.

The overall exuberance in the market is a reaction to some stability and certainty. It didn't take three weeks to call the election. It didn't trigger dozens of matters in the courts. We're not going to have another January 6th...

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Ramos produces quite a few of their EVs, just a start to the expected tariffs on Mexican imports.

Forgot about that.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

We all know already, moot to speculate, especially around a person as erratic and unpredictable as the two key figures involved.

The one thing all have in common is tariffs on EVs coming from China. So that you can count on. That leads to what might happen to auto parts coming from Chinese suppliers. Tesla source parts from there too. But, Musk/Tesla have also been courting their Chinese counterparts to set up shop in Mexico. If they are further ahead on this front than anyone else and their suppliers, then they're sitting rosy. Supply chains can't pick up and move on short order. Revoking IRA would hurt Tesla just the same. And revoking/reversing efforts to find, mine and process domestic Lithium deposits will not help Tesla (who is building a refinery in Corpus Christi, TX). Reversing efforts to on-shore production of batteries isn't beneficial to Tesla either.

Beyond this, IMO, stop worrying about Rivian or the greater things. Worry about your own ass and how you might be impacted closer to "home". The rest is bigger than any of us to do anything about.

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

I think it depends on the policies. We know traditionally republicans tend to be against taxpayer subsidy. They also tend to be anti-change and against government mandates.

Call me crazy but I think it may be a good thing for EVs (am not getting political here at all and I refuse to go down that rabbit hole). The big pushback from many in the public right now is all the mandates and anytime the government pushes something many folks tend to get upset and get their defenses up.

Setting goals for sustainability, energy independence, and more sustainable transportation is a great thing. Telling the public and/or auto makers that they have to stop selling ICE is not the way to go.

As far as the EV credits they are much more stringent now. I really wish the anti-EV crowd would realize that there is nothing more pro American than an electric vehicle. The energy is produced here, the jobs support folks in our home towns and communities, and we aren't sending that money overseas to enrich regimes that may not be friendly to the US.

EVs don't care how the energy was generated and as the grid cleans up its act it will automatically reduce carbon emissions for transportation as well.

Auto makers want EVs so long as they can sell them. EVs are so much easier. No emissions warranties or CAFE standards etc etc. BUT if folks don't like EV they can still have the option to purchase an ICE.

As for Rivian, the EV credits do help them but I don't see the EV credits being undone...at least not for a while. The revamp has really reduced the amount that's available anyway. Assuming R2 will be eligible, it would more so affect R2 sales as most R1 configs are over the 80k cutoff.

Honestly, I truly expect the new administration to be more friendly to EVs...slowly and eventually...musk is a huge donor now and will put pressure.

Not related to the admin but the fed has already started easing monetary policy so if that continues one might expect things to be a little better for Rivian.

Time will tell.

 

[Jonger1150]

Ramos produces quite a few of their EVs, just a start to the expected tariffs on Mexican imports.

Wouldn't that require reworking the new USMCA deal?

People are saying that no one has ever made a better trade deal.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

Musk made a bold bet, and in just a few hours, it’s paid off to the tune of $15 billion in his personal coffers. Call it wild—call it cunning—but it’s the mark of a fox with a plan! What did he invest in the election, $120M? 12,000% return in less than a day.

p.s. on a side note my R2 is now paid for compliments of Mr. Musk....

 

[White Shadow]

Another 1%er that's never worked at a public company. Read a book on strategy, nothing in there about stock price.

If you think it doesn't matter, then you're clueless.

 

[Golfer04]

Musk made a bold bet, and in just a few hours, it’s paid off to the tune of $15 billion in his personal coffers. Call it wild—call it cunning—but it’s the mark of a fox with a plan! What did he invest in the election, $120M? 12,000% return in less than a day.

p.s. on a side note my R2 is now paid for compliments of Mr. Musk....

I didn't vote for the winner, but market reaction was very predictable. As earlier noted it was as much uncertainty being over, etc as Trumpet. Market will probably decline tomorrow, but I pulled trigger today on my Tri Max R1T. Have some reservations, but, again, like others have said I think it will help EV sales. Getting rid of the subsidy optics will be better long term. Hopefully Rivian can survive, but products are so compelling somebody will be building them.

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