The Elephant in the Room [ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICAL DISCUSSION]

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

What effect will the 2024 elections have on Rivian and RIVN? Musk and Tesla are both seeing renewed attention. I see RIVN is down quite a bit today. What say you? (Please try to stick to the effects this will have on the company and not vitriol.)

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[NeedSumCoffee]

 

[chrismc]

Trump has pledged to eliminate all federal incentives for the EV industry, including both EV manufacturers as well as charging infrastructure. He intends to go all-in on supporting and subsidizing fossil fuels for energy and transportation. NGL, it’s not good for Rivian or the future of our habitable planet. If there are any exceptions to this policy, they are only going to be to support his new BFF Musk at the expense of the rest of the industry. The only potential silver lining is Rivian picking up Tesla converts due to anti-Musk sentiment, but I fear Rivian is a dead man walking after yesterday.

 

[TexasBob]

The EV tax credit is not going anywhere. It has been threatened too many times to count since the Bush administration put it into place nearly twenty years ago, but it has always stayed intact or expanded. Nothing will happen.

The one thing that almost certainly WILL happen is that the IRS determination that leases are commercial sales (and hence eligible for the $7500 even if they are a foreign manufacturer) will be reversed. this does not require Congressional action and many in Congress that supported the IRA thought Biden had done an inappropriate sleight of hand with this anyway.


EV stocks not named TSLA getting pounded this morning. However, I do not think this is indicative of anything aside from unsophisticated day-traders jumping on a notional trend. The fundamentals of Tesla have not improved as a result of the election (in fact they have degraded).

 

[gultin]

RJ did mention that for R2/R3, they're aiming to be profitable and price competitive with ICE regardless of incentives. So I'm confident they had this outcome built into their modeling. That said, without achieving profitability soon, Rivian will find it hard to survive as an independent entity. Upcoming low gas prices and lack of investment in charging infrastructure will be major headwinds to all EVs including Teslas. I believe chances just went up for an acquisition by someone bigger like VW, as Rivian's assets are quite valuable. I'm not worried they'll cease to exist as a brand though.

 

[Zoidz]

At the Convention, Trump said "“I will end the electric vehicle mandate on Day One.” A mandate that does not exist. After Musk started donating to his campaign, Trump said he loves EVs, and now Musk is his bruh. And don't forget to add tariffs and cutting down on government regulations to the mashup.

Mixed signals. I don't think it's possible at this time to guess how this will affect Rivian or the rest of the industry. IMO the only thing that is certain is Telsa will continue to get preferential treatment, just as they get here in Pennsylvania to this day.

 

[SANZC02]

RJ did mention that for R2/R3, they're aiming to be profitable and price competitive with ICE regardless of incentives. So I'm confident they had this outcome built into their modeling. That said, without achieving profitability soon, Rivian will find it hard to survive as an independent entity. Upcoming low gas prices and lack of investment in charging infrastructure will be major headwinds to all EVs including Teslas. I believe chances just went up for an acquisition by someone bigger like VW, as Rivian's assets are quite valuable. I'm not worried they'll cease to exist as a brand though.

Not sure how much gas will drop, we are already at record highs for oil production in the US so it will be hard to increase that much.

We all just need to chill and see what actions come to fruition over time. There is often much rhetoric thrown out in political races that often looks much different from implemented plans.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Positive, if the typical Tesla buyer is paying attention. I'm not convinced that's the case though.

 

[ndmiller]

Not a thing will change for either company.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Rivian stock tanking is due to a bad earnings call coming up. Half of what Trump says is bullshit and that’s generous. I doubt he’s going to go to war with domestic manufacturers and Rivian is one of those. If he’s anything at the core it’s isolationist and his whole plan is to strengthen our economy by protecting our manufacturing.

I think his anti EV rhetoric is just talk. He won’t push mandates but he will largely leave EVs alone. If only for the strategy of not falling behind China which we might already be.

 

[RivianMatt]

Much of today's movement in the stock market - be it the broader upturn or specific downturns - I think are initial reactionary results to the election. I think the market will "settle" over the next couple of weeks. That being said, I placed an order for a Gen 2 R1S with the loyalty discount yesterday, and the increase in my stock portfolio today alone is going to fund about ⅓ of my purchase price.

 

[zefram47]

Not sure how much gas will drop, we are already at record highs for oil production in the US so it will be hard to increase that much.

Fun side note, but the USA doesn't really use the oil it pulls out of the ground...it exports most of it. Our refining / distribution capacity just isn't designed to handle what we produce.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ame...l-to-meet-its-needs-so-why-do-we-import-crude

 

[Oldsmobile_Mike]

You should make this a poll. For whatever those are worth?

My .02 cents is this is bad news for Rivian. Trump has made it pretty clear he intends to increase oil & gas production, cut the federal $7500 rebate, and has spoken ill about EV's "being pushed down people's throats" in the past. Frankly don't understand Musk's long-game since this will impact his fortune as well, but who knows. He's kind of a screwball already. What I'm personally annoyed with is that this will further embolden all the EV-hating "MAGA's" to further spam & troll EV communities sewing hate and division.

Frankly I'm concerned about us falling further behind China (and the rest of the world), the impact on the environment, and this being the potential downfall of Rivian as a company. On the left however, this may push all the people who already own Teslas and were considering another to now all "jump ship" to Rivian.

Personally I was hoping "Giant Meteor" would win, but guess we'll see one way or another in 10 years. 🪨

 

[White Shadow]

I'm considering biting the bullet and dumping my stock soon. Either that or make the decision to hold on to it for at least the next 10 years and hope that Rivian survives.

 

[White Shadow]

Not a thing will change for either company.

It already has. Keep an eye on the stock if you don't believe it.

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