Tesla stock - Death Cross

[Zoidz]

Business Insider

For those not familiar with the term, it is when a stock's 50 day moving average crosses and drops below the 200 day moving average. Some consider it a classic sign that the stock value is likely to continue to decline. However, with the way the markets have been so volatile recently, it may not be all that indicative, and it's more of a point of interest to banter and debate.

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[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

A bit sensational? It’s been lower. I know because a year ago I sold what I had remaining at lower than current.

 

[Riviot]

Not alone, S&P hit it yesterday. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...be-ominous-it-sounds-analysts-say-2025-04-14/

 

[Motoarzon]

So what happened at the last death cross back in Aug? The stock sored. Tesla is a winner! (up 55% in the last 1year, Up 300% in the last 5yrs and 850% in the last 10years). Ya'll have to zoom out a little bit and ignore the noise in 1-24mth time frames. Long term it will be even more of a winner!!! You know how many "dozens and dozens" of times Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google Nvidia ect...all dropped 30-60% over the past 10, 20+ years. Those stock charts over the past 20yrs look all uphill and rosy and made everyone who was holding millionaires, but if you go zoom into those same charts in a 2-3yr window and then scroll backwards in time you will see over, and over and over again big-time drops. Tesla is no different.
One thing I can tell you is that ever since Covid (when the entire world all at once came to a dead stop and scrambled everything) non of these "old school" charts, patterns, inverted yield curves, inflationary stats, consumer consumption stats ect...ect... all these old school signals are completely out the window and mean absolutely nothing anymore!!

 

[Glembi2]

So what happened at the last death cross back in Aug? The stock sored. Tesla is a winner! (up 55% in the last 1year, Up 300% in the last 5yrs and 850% in the last 10years). Ya'll have to zoom out a little bit and ignore the noise in 1-24mth time frames. Long term it will be even more of a winner!!! You know how many "dozens and dozens" of times Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google Nvidia ect...all dropped 30-60% over the past 10, 20+ years. Those stock charts over the past 20yrs look all uphill and rosy and made everyone who was holding millionaires, but if you go zoom into those same charts in a 2-3yr window and then scroll backwards in time you will see over, and over and over again big-time drops. Tesla is no different.
One thing I can tell you is that ever since Covid (when the entire world all at once came to a dead stop and scrambled everything) non of these "old school" charts, patterns, inverted yield curves, inflationary stats, consumer consumption stats ect...ect... all these old school signals are completely out the window and mean absolutely nothing anymore!!

I believe the cross in August was exactly the opposite of what we are seeing now. As such, your comment about the stock shooting up after August seems to prove the point about the upwards trend - call it a positive cross, not the negative cross mentioned by the OP

 

[Motoarzon]

I believe the cross in August was exactly the opposite of what we are seeing now. As such, your comment about the stock shooting up after August seems to prove the point about the upwards trend - call it a positive cross, not the negative cross mentioned by the OP

Agree, the negative cross could indicate Tesla going lower and since Q1 deliveries were down so should Q1 earnings (all things being equal). But although likely to go down in the short term it will be short lived as Tesla's "unsupervised" FSD robotaxi is still on target for June in Texas and that's a major catalyst for the stock. Then 3 more states by end of 2025. Eventually all USA by end of 2026.
Personally, when I see things on sale 50% off I buy more and just hold for the long term. In the mean time with Tesla on the down trend I've been making a killing on all my covered call options. I also have a few naked puts at $200, and $170. And will soon start some at $150. The price points (if it even gets there) that I'd be more than happy to have 100shares put-to-me. and then hold for the long term.

 

[SANZC02]

… although likely to go down in the short term it will be short lived as Tesla's "unsupervised" FSD robotaxi is still on target for June in Texas and that's a major catalyst for the stock. Then 3 more states by end of 2025. Eventually all USA by end of 2026.…

They may have it in June for Austin, will be interesting to see if they mention it in tomorrows earnings report.

Keep in mind back in April, 2019 the Robotaxi was going to be on the road in 2020.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

lol, bud Rivian is currently in a death cross.

https://in.benzinga.com/trading-ide...rish-breakdown-death-cross-confirms-downtrend

 

[Zoidz]

lol, bud Rivian is currently in a death cross.

https://in.benzinga.com/trading-ide...rish-breakdown-death-cross-confirms-downtrend

It seems you missed my original comment so I'll school ya on it:

"However, with the way the markets have been so volatile recently, it may not be all that indicative, and it's more of a point of interest to banter and debate."

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

It seems you missed my original comment so I'll school ya on it:

"However, with the way the markets have been so volatile recently, it may not be all that indicative, and it's more of a point of interest to banter and debate."

Thanks for the schooling! Except, Rivian went into a death cross stating in mid March, which was before the recent volatility.

I have tutoring available for school.

 

[Riviot]

Thanks for the schooling! Except, Rivian went into a death cross stating in mid March, which was before the recent volatility.

I have tutoring available for school.

Isn't mid March when "the market" entered correction territory? Isn't a correction considered volatile?

 

[Zoidz]

Thanks for the schooling! Except, Rivian went into a death cross stating in mid March, which was before the recent volatility.

I have tutoring available for school.

Here's some more schooling for ya, you obviously need it. Recent Market has been volatile for months, starting in February.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Here's some more schooling for ya, you obviously need it. Recent Market has been volatile for months, starting in February.

And golly gee, I wonder what happened just before February. /s

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Isn't mid March when "the market" entered correction territory? Isn't a correction considered volatile?

it depends. Not all corrections are volatile, though who knows what “volatile” means. Many would argue a correction is quite healthy, especially if it establishes a new base and clears out over valued equities. But….that’s not where we are today. We are indeed in a volatile situation. Many economists would say that the real volatility started in April with tariff whiplash.

 

[Zoidz]

it depends. Not all corrections are volatile, though who knows what “volatile” means. Many would argue a correction is quite healthy, especially if it establishes a new base and clears out over valued equities. But….that’s not where we are today. We are indeed in a volatile situation. Many economists would say that the real volatility started in April with tariff whiplash.

VIX was ranging 15 to 20 most of last year and through Feb 2025. VIX started rising end of February and through March to levels not seen since COVID.

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