Tesla Battery Day

ohmman

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Today's Tesla Battery Day event was impressive. They introduced a number of things - the large 4680 cells, tabless cells, structural pack design, elimination of cobalt, etc. The roadmap was to a > 50% decrease in cost per kWh in their battery packs, and it was specifically outlined as a case for the Cybertruck and their Semi. They also showed much more rapid charging capability.

I wonder how this is going to affect Rivian from a cost competitiveness basis. I think Rivian still has a couple of benefits - a more traditional but still unique design, the potential for greater quality at delivery, the potential for a better service experience, and potentially others. But with the changes Tesla outlined, I feel like they're going to be able to offer the Cybertruck at an extremely competitive price without sacrificing margins.

Did anyone else watch the presentation? Any other takeaways from these big battery changes?
 

jjwolf120

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Any other takeaways from these big battery changes?
I haven't watched the whole presentation, but my takeaway was there wasn't anything revolutionary in the presentation. They have a roadmap to increase capacity and decrease cost over the next several years. That being said, having the roadmap is very important and shows that the costs will be coming down in the near to intermediate future.
 

electruck

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I feel like they're going to be able to offer the Cybertruck at an extremely competitive price without sacrificing margins.
I suspect this is already baked into CT's pricing, now we just have some insight into how they plan to achieve their price points.
 

Babbuino

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I suspect this is already baked into CT's pricing, now we just have some insight into how they plan to achieve their price points.
I dont think they are going to offer the 250mile range CT since Elon said that less than 300 miles is not enough [ MY cheap version got canceled]. It would be great however If the range for the single motor is 300 miles, starting at 40k, but I highly doubt it.
 
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ohmman

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I haven't watched the whole presentation, but my takeaway was there wasn't anything revolutionary in the presentation.
I will have to respectfully disagree on this. A tabless battery is a pretty big deal, and their cathode plant is as well. Structural packs are a clever solution to reducing wasted space in existing packs.

I've been to a number of Tesla events in person, and while I watched this one remotely, I think it was the most impressive I've seen so far.
 

U100

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I watched the whole presentation- and it’s causing me to rethink purchasing any EV at this time. Through vertical integration of battery production and the improvements they’ve made in all facets of same, Tesla can realize a 54% increase in range but it might take them 3 years or so to reach that goal and to integrate those changes into their vehicles. In addition, these changes will bring down the cost of their EVs (e.g.; Elon talked of a $25K Tesla with full autopilot capabilities - which they also improved upon).
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Coast2Coast

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How much newer and better is the problem. 10% improvement, that's nice. 20% improvement, whoa, that's pretty interesting. 40% improvement and I'm sitting up in my seat. 56-69% improvement, and you have to think long and hard about what's the best course of action.

Even if Tesla only delivers half of what's expected, that's very impressive. A key question, as always, is how much of the gains can be easily replicated by other firms, especially the full time battery chemistry and production specialists, like Panasonic, CATL and LG Chem. Or, in other words, will Tesla have sustainable competitive advantages in battery design, development and production?

If it will, that's a good reason to rethink a non-Tesla EV purchase. But if Tesla's gains can be replicated, and if battery and EV vehicle firms are working on their own battery breakthroughs, independent of whatever Tesla is doing, then there's no particular reason to rethink an EV purchase.

In short, will any firm monopolize the gains in battery performance? Unlikely, but Tesla's been proving the naysayers wrong for a while.
 
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Jehorton

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Like we said in an earlier post about battery technology improving and evolving , if you’re going to keep waiting on the next best thing, you’re always going to be waiting. These technologies are going to improve every year and if we hear about something better and choose to wait l, it will be never ending. I’ve come to peace with the current batteries in Rivian and when time comes to upgrade to another vehicle it will be a nice change.
 

discsinthesky

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It's also worth considering whether we think that change will be a step change or incremental improvements ended up with the % gains listed. I think mentally most find missing out on the big step change harder to swallow than the smaller incremental gains, but I'd expect the change in real life to be more incremental.
 

UT Rivian

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I confess to not watching the presentation, but here’s a link that takes a deep dive into the technology.

Wired Tesla Battery Day Review

It sounds like an impressive roadmap but nothing tangible as of yet. I greatly respect what Tesla/Musk have done over the last several years, but he’s known to introduce products well before they are ready.
 

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I agree battery improvements are going to be incremental. Has anyone heard or want to speculate on the warranty for the initial Rivian batteries or the R1T truck? Providing a warranty above their current competitors’ shows that they are fully standing behind their first-generation EVs.
 

jjwolf120

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Has anyone heard or want to speculate on the warranty for the initial Rivian batteries
Since RJ has said that the batteries will last longer than the vehicle, I would guess they will give at least a 10 year 100,000 mile warranty.
 

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I agree battery improvements are going to be incremental. Has anyone heard or want to speculate on the warranty for the initial Rivian batteries or the R1T truck? Providing a warranty above their current competitors’ shows that they are fully standing behind their first-generation EVs.
I'm expecting a 10year warranty for the battery.
 
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ohmman

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"Industry" standard is 8 years on the battery. Nissan/Chevy/Tesla, at least.

I'd suspect the same from Rivian.
 

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