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Stock price - do people realize Rivian (RIVN) is NOT Tesla (TSLA)??

the long way downunder

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I bought 1000 share of Lucid several works ago.
Lucid has practically nothing in common with Rivian.
There's been the expectation of a mega billion dollar middle east speculative fund will buy all or most of Lucid.
This is the same ruthless oil cartel capitalists who tried to buy Tesla and dupe its CEO into thinking he would have a privately held company.
That doesn't even begin to explain a 40% pop that returns $LCID to a few steps up the fire escape it has been falling down for over a year. Shorts tend to be easily squeezed in these near penny stocks, they close out their position reflexively.
This 43% gain is money to be taken off the table. It won't happen again and it could all be gone before I finish typing this sentence.
If LCID holds this $12-ish price after the open on Monday, the derivatives show a $10-19 price expectation of 25% over the next 20 days. That's bullish compared to the "slow death march" expectation 48 hours ago. So $LCID may be in play as a takeover candidate – that's time to take profits and close or at least reduce the position to a small, manageable size. The move up 40% is much more work than the move down 50%.

I hope Rivian stays well away from these sorts of "funding secured" games.
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milliemc

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People don’t realize it with the stock or the car. For the stock, many just focus on what Tesla has done since 2019.

Many have forgotten how painful it was prior to that and expect Rivian to be performing and producing at the same level. Rivian is in year 2 of production. Tesla is in year 14 of production.
yes--they are not really comparable...
 

Tahoe Man

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Still holding some shares from a small purchase at $19 (I did nimble a little at $27).
Looks like this thing couldn't get above $22, made a double top. Support around $16, but I say the odds are this thing makes a new low. It's not like the Fed is going to give up on fighting inflation and slowing the economy. More headwinds.
 

Tahoe Man

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New lows being made as I type.
There was a possibility that it could have gotten to $25 to break that downtrend but that looks remote now.

The next couple of weeks will be interesting. It seems it wants to decline to it's a mid point downtrend of $10 if the economy starts to cool off causing equities to fall and debt spreads to increase.
 

Dark-Fx

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In one of those threads a long time ago, I said I expected RIVN to bottom out around 25 and it wasn't well met. Guess I didn't anticipate the whole market being as down as it was. Let's go with $15 for the bottom this time.
New lows being made as I type.
I have no plans to revise my lower end estimate this time.
 

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the long way downunder

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Somewhere around the current price, Rivian is up for sale. The big investors have to cut back, claw back their $10B remaining, sell the thing to the Saudis for $50 and that's that. We'll know about it when the stock price opens at $55 and everyone says "what the …?"

Watch for steady volume purchasing with little or no increase in price over the course of less than two weeks as the major investors and insiders reposition for a takeover. Anyone who doesn't know, will be selling under $30 (a 100% gain-ish) and probably exiting with some loss of blood.
Trading $RIVN through options has been cut to the bone. There's no upside price expectation, no skew, no juice.

My plan (everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face) is to take a position here, selling puts ATM with a cost basis around $12. I'll accumulate enough that a 100% gain ($25) recoups losses from 2022 leaving me with enough shares to hold indefinitely till Rivian either succeeds (which I see as the 90% likely outcome) or changes hands and becomes an EDV manufacturer with some legacy R1 users to "end of life" as they skeleton the service network and repurpose the RAN as a fleet charging network.

Rivian could sell the chassis, suspension and motor technology IP to Land Rover … they don't have a clue, they're just shoehorning a battery slab and some motors into their 2022 ICE.
The Rivian IP is a prize. Chrysler could use it for the Scout. If Tesla didn't have an ego, they could take the Rivian chassis and make it their conventional SUV, their EDV, their mid-size Cybertruck (easy to slap the Clustertruck folded tin body onto a chassis) … but no, just about any manf except Ford and Tesla will want to buy the Rivian IP.
 

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zipzag

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The Rivian IP is a prize.
Nah. The suspension is optimized for desert racing. Nothing unusual about the rest. That's why rivian will be mostly be selling the simpler two motor design. Two motors and a locker will outperform the current four motor setup in actual difficult conditions except desert racing.

Why would you imagine that Volkswagen cant build a two motor SUV? No major is going to buy Rivian tech. Tata motors is unprofitable. A better plan is for Rivian to take Land Rover market share.

Rivian is simply trying to be the EV era Jeep and Subaru, with some Land Rover. It's about perception and not that taking a 7100 lb vehicle on difficult trails is optimal. Its acknowledged by Jeep that most high end Wrangler owners seldom if ever take their vehicle off paved roads.

It would be great if the Saudis or other deep pocket long term investor was interested in ownership. If Rivian could go 6-7 years concentrating on market share rather than cash flow they could have a big part of the pretend wilderness travel vehicle market.

RAN stations aren't physically configured for EDV charging. There's no evidence yet that Rivian has any competitive advantage in delivery vehicles.

If anyone is superior in software besides Tesla is unknown. Amazon apparently designs all the routing and management software for the EV delivery vehicles. There's no reason for Amazon, one of the worlds most sophisticated software companies, to have auto manufacturers build business critical applications for them.
 

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kizamybute'

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I have no plans to revise my lower end estimate this time.
Until Rivian makes another surprise stupid announcement that contradicts with everything else they say. I would never have thought it would go this low. Some decline was expected due to the overall market decline, but Rivian's own actions are what's really killing investors. They're all losing faith that this company is being competently run. Great product with so much potential, but clearly an inexperienced kid running the show when it comes to handle a publicly traded company. He desperately needs an experienced side kick that can stop him from all these stupid rash decisions they make!
 

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Until Rivian makes another surprise stupid announcement that contradicts with everything else they say. I would never have thought it would go this low. Some decline was expected due to the overall market decline, but Rivian's own actions are what's really killing investors. They're all losing faith that this company is being competently run. Great product with so much potential, but clearly an inexperienced kid running the show when it comes to handle a publicly traded company. He desperately needs an experienced side kick that can stop him from all these stupid rash decisions they make!
The other issue is optics. You can see on this forum the excitement has dropped like a rock judging from reading past postings. That will turn off conversations about the truck and company which will decrease brand recognition.

I said it before multiple times, the financial, economic and competitive landscapes isn't good for Rivian. I'm not a hater but not a fanboy either just pointing out what I think is obvious.

Is it difficult to build, operate and sustain a new car company in the best of times? Yup. How do you do that when things aren't looking good and the cost of money keeps going up and your competition isn't sitting still?

The stock broke through and closed on new lows, and this is with an economy that is supposed to enter only a gentle slowdown.
 

the long way downunder

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Nah. The suspension is optimized for desert racing. Nothing unusual about the rest. That's why rivian will be mostly be selling the simpler two motor design. Two motors and a locker will outperform the current four motor setup in actual difficult conditions except desert racing.

Why would you imagine that Volkswagen cant build a two motor SUV? No major is going to buy Rivian tech. Tata motors is unprofitable. A better plan is for Rivian to take Land Rover market share.

Rivian is simply trying to be the EV era Jeep and Subaru, with some Land Rover. It's about perception and not that taking a 7100 lb vehicle on difficult trails is optimal. Its acknowledged by Jeep that most high end Wrangler owners seldom if ever take their vehicle off paved roads.

It would be great if the Saudis or other deep pocket long term investor was interested in ownership. If Rivian could go 6-7 years concentrating on market share rather than cash flow they could have a big part of the pretend wilderness travel vehicle market.

RAN stations aren't physically configured for EDV charging. There's no evidence yet that Rivian has any competitive advantage in delivery vehicles.

If anyone is superior in software besides Tesla is unknown. Amazon apparently designs all the routing and management software for the EV delivery vehicles. There's no reason for Amazon, one of the worlds most sophisticated software companies, to have auto manufacturers build business critical applications for them.
You think Rivian built SUV/Pickup suspension with "desert racer" in mind?

The suspension is beautiful, elegant, thoroughly conceived, the hydraulic link, the long arm, long travel that spans the chassis … it's superb. I doff my cap to the purity of the engineering beyond my humble. It's not a desert racer … it's 7000lbs! … c'mon. It's a luxury on-roader with outstanding off-road prowess. It's what Land Rover would have built in 1970 if independent suspension componentry could match the performance of solid axles back then and four motors is the pure, technically correct solution to traction and performance efficiency.

VW/Porsche can build anything. And better than just about any other R&D contractor on the planet.
It's not about ability, it's time-to-market and cost-benefit, it's brand management and positioning, it's long contracts with oil cartel supply.

From the shape of the hood to the feel of the cabin trim, Rivian was conceived and designed from day one to be a Land Rover EV, especially the Range Rover EV. They missed. Not by much. Maybe by two years. Maybe by failing to execute on quality. Now they're an EDV manf and they have a legacy of a few thousand retail R1 customers to "end of life." They have to plow on with building the R1 till they succeed or die trying. Not matter what 2024 brings, $RIVN will be priced close to the early IPO number, $50-55. Anything about that will be luxury. Musk paid $44B for a $1B chat-fest echo chamber and free advertising platform running at a loss, nosediving into the abyss. Rivian has at least two solid products, demand, orders, and the potential build a factory and deliver product. That's _got_ to be worth $44B today, let alone in five years when these numbers will be small beans.

The Saudi fund will buy anything that fücks up any EV company that could bring competition to selling oil. Till they get into monetizing electricity, which is already happening through the corruption of government. Musk was almost dumb enough to "$420 funding confirmed" sell ("privatize") Tesla to them and bury it in an oil well never to be seen again. I assume VCs texted him and woke him up to his brainless misunderstanding of the world around him. Better to pay an SEC fine of sofa cushion pocket change than wad up the whole business into a perpetual 2018 Tesla with no upgrades, no charging network, no service … "gosh, what went wrong with Tesla, another EV1?"

The number of RANs and Rivian SCs extant is so trivial as to be a minor balance sheet adjustment to close them faster than I can finish typing this sentence. I use it as a visualization of how the "adventure" (pfft!) network can be overnighted into a last mile delivery van infrastructure that's worth something to a fleet operator.

If anyone is superior in software besides Tesla is unknown. Amazon apparently designs all the routing and management software for the EV delivery vehicles. There's no reason for Amazon, one of the worlds most sophisticated software companies, to have auto manufacturers build business critical applications for them.
I don't follow what you've written. Tesla is not "superior" in software, it's falling behind year by year.
Amazon is certainly masterful in logistics and brutally cruel treatment of employees, but it's not doing so well in the last few years. $AMZN is down from $180 to $80 in the last two years for good reason.
The IP Rivian holds is not software, it's the vehicles and the factory lines, it's the components and design. All the software is a few vehicle dynamics and their home-brew BMS … that's literally generations behind the leaders.
 

Tahoe Man

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The stock made new closing lows today.
I thought it had a decent chance to $25 but now getting past $19 will be a tall hurdle.

Looks like this is the week of capitulation given the volume, a good part of me seems to think it could touch $10 that represents the final wipeout where it could base and ultimately get back to $20, perhaps from a buyout offer.
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