Sponsored

Stock price - do people realize Rivian (RIVN) is NOT Tesla (TSLA)??

madgrey

Well-Known Member
First Name
Allan
Joined
Feb 26, 2022
Threads
4
Messages
807
Reaction score
1,083
Location
Fidalgo Island, WA
Vehicles
2022 R1T, 2016 Miata, 2015 Viper
Occupation
Hardware Design Verification
In general, meeting expectations is exactly that. It's what is expected by investors and therefore usually built into the stock price. I think they would have to significantly overperform for it to move the needle.
Sponsored

 

SANZC02

Well-Known Member
First Name
Bob
Joined
Feb 11, 2021
Threads
29
Messages
5,259
Reaction score
8,860
Location
California
Vehicles
Tesla Model S, LE - R1S
Occupation
Retired
In general, meeting expectations is exactly that. It's what is expected by investors and therefore usually built into the stock price. I think they would have to significantly overperform for it to move the needle.
I agree, hitting the number is built in, these days there is so much information out there the price is usually weeks ahead of the news.

The only way we see a jump is if the market was basing moves on the Cox numbers which seem low.

We still have not had an actual announcement from Rivian so at this point still only speculation.
 

Rasputin

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 18, 2022
Threads
5
Messages
56
Reaction score
130
Location
CA
Vehicles
KTM, Vespa
OK, tomorrow will be interesting. The question in my Original Post should be clearly answered tomorrow. Rivian met production expectations, which is good and in any normal scenario, would mean an instant spike in stock price. Tesla on the other hand, missed their targets, which would mean a drop in stock price. So, if there are any significant investors out there truly investing in Rivian as a company, tomorrow "SHOULD" be a split day that sees Rivian increase and Tesla decline. Unfortunately, based on past history so far, despite Rivian doing well and deserving a pat on the back for meeting their goals, I fear that we'll see more of the same and Tesla will determine which way the stocks go, up or down. Will be very disappointing to lose money when the company I invested in hit their targets and should be rewarded. I hope this isn't the case and the stock prices go in the direction they deserve to go in, based on the release of quarterly results??

What does everyone think? We going up or down tomorrow?

It doesn't matter what Rivian does - it's trading on macro and Tesla, which just said they missed on deliveries and overproduced for the quarter:
  • Carmaker handed over 405,278 cars; analysts expected 420,760
  • Production exceeded deliveries by 34,423 vehicles last quarter
Just read the Bloomberg article on Tesla production and the trends don't look good...
 

Count Orlok

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 17, 2022
Threads
165
Messages
2,082
Reaction score
4,123
Location
Wisconsin & New Mexico
Vehicles
2022 R1S/ 2024 INEOS Grenadier/ 1969 Ford / etc.
Occupation
retired
OK, tomorrow will be interesting. The question in my Original Post should be clearly answered tomorrow. Rivian met production expectations, which is good and in any normal scenario, would mean an instant spike in stock price. Tesla on the other hand, missed their targets, which would mean a drop in stock price. So, if there are any significant investors out there truly investing in Rivian as a company, tomorrow "SHOULD" be a split day that sees Rivian increase and Tesla decline. Unfortunately, based on past history so far, despite Rivian doing well and deserving a pat on the back for meeting their goals, I fear that we'll see more of the same and Tesla will determine which way the stocks go, up or down. Will be very disappointing to lose money when the company I invested in hit their targets and should be rewarded. I hope this isn't the case and the stock prices go in the direction they deserve to go in, based on the release of quarterly results??

What does everyone think? We going up or down tomorrow?
I'm buying more if it hits $15 or $25 but I'm not buying into the current doldrum.
 

mkg3

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2021
Threads
41
Messages
1,344
Reaction score
1,750
Location
SoCal
Vehicles
Unagi, Radio Flyer and Kette Car
Clubs
 
It doesn't matter what Rivian does - it's trading on macro and Tesla, which just said they missed on deliveries and overproduced for the quarter:
  • Carmaker handed over 405,278 cars; analysts expected 420,760
  • Production exceeded deliveries by 34,423 vehicles last quarter
Just read the Bloomberg article on Tesla production and the trends don't look good...
It does mater what Rivian does. Tomorrow, it probably will be up initially but will drop because the market is forward looking and the only thing that will be to the upside is Rivian's guidance for the 2023.

As for Tesla and macro, Tesla is so beaten down, my sense is that it will close tomorrow up as 40% sales increase over 2021, and 47% increase in production. If you add the delivered and "in-transit" (they are sold but paper work has not been signed yet), they have essential hit their 50% projection from a year ago.

The 4th quarter sales wee dampened due to Covid issues in China and also the inflation bill's new EV credit not kicking in until 2023 in US.

When all things considered, inflation, recession fears, high interest rate, and layoffs in higher paying jobs, Tesla performed incredibly by delivering 1.313,851 EVs in 2022.

We're excited that Rivian made 25K vehicles total. I hope they can least 2x~2,5x in 2023. I'm in the first 50K orders as announced at IPO and still waiting around....
 

Sponsored

DuoRivians

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 30, 2022
Threads
189
Messages
2,784
Reaction score
6,511
Location
California
Vehicles
R1T, MY
I don’t know if it’ll be up or down tomorrow. But, I think Rivian is on track to beat next year’s earnings estimates by Wall St, which currently has $5.4B for 2023 revenue.

This is approximately a 60K per year production run rate. Rivian did about 10K in Q4. With new enduro motors, LFP packs for EDVs, and continued operations improvements, I think Rivian will beat 60K vehicles.

I am hoping margins will improve too, as Claire (Rivian CFO) said as launch orders diminish and fixed costs get amortized across more units.
 

Rasputin

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 18, 2022
Threads
5
Messages
56
Reaction score
130
Location
CA
Vehicles
KTM, Vespa
Tesla is down 9+% this morning on the output > delivery news over the weekend, even though it was a production beat.

Rivian is down 5+% following this.

Not convinced Tesla is the industry bellwether? Okay...

I'm with you - the car is amazing. You won't be disappointed. We are all here to own the car, not the stock.


It does mater what Rivian does. Tomorrow, it probably will be up initially but will drop because the market is forward looking and the only thing that will be to the upside is Rivian's guidance for the 2023.

As for Tesla and macro, Tesla is so beaten down, my sense is that it will close tomorrow up as 40% sales increase over 2021, and 47% increase in production. If you add the delivered and "in-transit" (they are sold but paper work has not been signed yet), they have essential hit their 50% projection from a year ago.

The 4th quarter sales wee dampened due to Covid issues in China and also the inflation bill's new EV credit not kicking in until 2023 in US.

When all things considered, inflation, recession fears, high interest rate, and layoffs in higher paying jobs, Tesla performed incredibly by delivering 1.313,851 EVs in 2022.

We're excited that Rivian made 25K vehicles total. I hope they can least 2x~2,5x in 2023. I'm in the first 50K orders as announced at IPO and still waiting around....
 

Tahoe Man

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 12, 2022
Threads
1
Messages
523
Reaction score
464
Location
Tahoe
Vehicles
Chevy Volt
The issue is some are trying to fight the Fed.
The air was let out on EV stocks a while ago. Did anyone really think Tesla was worth over a trillion...Or Rivian over $100B....
 

Biturbowned

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 28, 2021
Threads
4
Messages
283
Reaction score
496
Location
MD
Vehicles
‘20 Model Y, ‘22 R1T
Occupation
Engineer
Clubs
 
These prices are nuts. Rivian market cap is now only a few billion more than cash on hand! The market is voting no confidence in Rivian today. Personally I see it as an opportunity.
Same
 

3l3c7r1c

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2021
Threads
6
Messages
217
Reaction score
197
Location
Seattle, Washington
Vehicles
2020 Hyundai Palisade Limited, 2012 Honda CR-V
Rivian has a long way to go. As a first product, my R1S is amazing! Their delivery van possibly also have a big potential. Tesla is profitable and will be profitable but their growth is going to slow down significantly this year. Suddenly their ordering backlog is gone, for two quarters in a row they delivered less cars than produced. They can't do significant price cut since it will impact their own used car business and take a hit on customer loyalty. Many people are buying Tesla today because of relatively low depreciation compared to other EVs. Maybe federal tax credit will help little bit but pretty sure there won't be another 40% this year.

Rivian is possibly in disadvantage position right now. Most people, who can afford their cars now, are probably won't be eligible for any tax credit. Then in about 3 months, battery sourcing rule will say if Rivian is eligible for full $7,500 tax credit or not. Tesla's stock price is not justifiable but they are not dying anytime soon. But Rivian still has potential to die.
 

Sponsored

NY_Rob

Well-Known Member
First Name
Rob
Joined
Feb 9, 2022
Threads
18
Messages
3,664
Reaction score
5,065
Location
long island
Vehicles
2021 Model 3 LR AWD, 2017 BMW i3 REX, 2023 R1T
Occupation
IT
Tesla is down 9+% this morning on the output > delivery news over the weekend, even though it was a production beat.

Rivian is down 5+% following this.

Not convinced Tesla is the industry bellwether? Okay...
I think the proof is painfully clear to see today, unless Rivian perfects Cold Fusion.. they are tied to Tesla as far as anything negative impacting Tesla stock.

It makes me wonder what would have happened to Tesla this morning if mister High and Mighty hadn't "promised" "50% year over year growth for the foreseeable future"? It's not like tesla tanked last year.. they showed 40% YoY growth which is pretty great... except when the MCP proclaims "50% year over year growth for the foreseeable future".
 

the long way downunder

Well-Known Member
First Name
Adam
Joined
Jan 15, 2021
Threads
3
Messages
934
Reaction score
985
Location
charging
Vehicles
Tesla
Occupation
WFH
Tesla sets the tone; and the tone is a slow death march.
Anyone expecting $RIVN to get taken out to the $17 woodshed made 2%.
I think like a lot of people, I sold all $RIVN to score the loss. I'll rebuild that position after the tax accountant says I'm clear of wash sale rules or whatever paperwork was submitted in the last week of Dec.
Funnily enough, there's 0% chance of $RIVN dropping another 95%, but 100% expectation it will gain 95% (even if it takes a year or more) but that's not the psychology of institutional trading algorithms … they want to hitch their wagon to the gravy train after it's out of the station and already gained 50% from here … then they will enthusiastically invite new money into their funds to be shoveled in behind the gains they'll have on their books before the customer money …
 
Last edited:

Tahoe Man

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 12, 2022
Threads
1
Messages
523
Reaction score
464
Location
Tahoe
Vehicles
Chevy Volt
Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow or next year however many people thought Rivian was a great buy at $100.

Sentiment goes both ways...There's no guarantee it will go up 95%. Bear markets can be brutal and can cut this stock in half or more or even wipe it out entirely.

Only play with money you can loss, nobody should be betting their life savings on it.
 

Count Orlok

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 17, 2022
Threads
165
Messages
2,082
Reaction score
4,123
Location
Wisconsin & New Mexico
Vehicles
2022 R1S/ 2024 INEOS Grenadier/ 1969 Ford / etc.
Occupation
retired
I'm betting stock price goes sideways until Q4 & 2022 results are released on the 2/28
 
OP
OP
kizamybute'

kizamybute'

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2021
Threads
80
Messages
1,173
Reaction score
1,991
Location
Los Angeles
Vehicles
This one, that one and the other one.
Clubs
 
GREAT! Tesla just slashed their prices by 20%, pissing off most their existing fan base overnight. Now today, Rivian stockholders will get their ass kicked because of it!
Sponsored

 
 




Top