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Stock price - do people realize Rivian (RIVN) is NOT Tesla (TSLA)??

the long way downunder

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Not sure how you can state that. A stock price (and bond price) definitely reflects a companies financial health.
Investors are betting the outlook has dimmed significantly compared to a year ago.
In fundamentals, yes, to some extent, conventional, mature businesses can be measured up by their stock price, but the stock price at $175 didn't reflect Rivian's health, either – not for a startup with a war chest of billions, not for Berkshire Hathaway at the other end of the spectrum.

I don't know about bond prices, but I wouldn't equate a debt instrument to an asset market cap, and I would say Japan's bond price is not to be compared to the US bond issues … : )

The stock price is only ever one thing: the forward-looking discounted expectation of future performance and future risk.
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kizamybute'

kizamybute'

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Yep, government knew inflation was out of whack and chose to do nothing. Had they made small baby steps to raise rates, we could have adjusted slowly over time. Instead, they more than double rates in a short period of time. For budget conscious people, that's nearly doubling someone's mortgage payment. While car payments have doubled, at the higher rates, car payments today are much higher than they were.

Historically, when the stock market tanks, real estate is the good investment and vice versa. Because of our government's actions, they've managed to kill it all in less than a year! Real estate declining, auto sales declining, consumer spending in general has plummeted. Brick and mortar stores were already living on borrowed time, but the government just sped up their demise. And now, because of all of this, stock market is tanking as well as people panic and cash out.

It will turn back around some day, but they are forcing us into a painful recession before any recovery can happen. Had they double rates over a 5 year period, we could have adjusted with only small impacts on pricing. Instead, they do it in a year. Lots of foreclosures and bankruptcies coming in the next 2-3 years. Our whole system needs a major overhaul. Sadly, this time period probably won't teach them anything. All the previous cycles of this haven't resulted in any lasting changes, so as much as I'd love to see it, certainly can't expect it.
 

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Yep, government knew inflation was out of whack and chose to do nothing. Had they made small baby steps to raise rates, we could have adjusted slowly over time. Instead, they more than double rates in a short period of time. For budget conscious people, that's nearly doubling someone's mortgage payment. While car payments have doubled, at the higher rates, car payments today are much higher than they were.

Historically, when the stock market tanks, real estate is the good investment and vice versa. Because of our government's actions, they've managed to kill it all in less than a year! Real estate declining, auto sales declining, consumer spending in general has plummeted. Brick and mortar stores were already living on borrowed time, but the government just sped up their demise. And now, because of all of this, stock market is tanking as well as people panic and cash out.

It will turn back around some day, but they are forcing us into a painful recession before any recovery can happen. Had they double rates over a 5 year period, we could have adjusted with only small impacts on pricing. Instead, they do it in a year. Lots of foreclosures and bankruptcies coming in the next 2-3 years. Our whole system needs a major overhaul. Sadly, this time period probably won't teach them anything. All the previous cycles of this haven't resulted in any lasting changes, so as much as I'd love to see it, certainly can't expect it.
The government needed the economic pain to happen. It's as much about adjusting consumer behavior as it is about lowering inflation. Too many people had a standard unsustainably high for the available resources. There's only so much stuff to go around, and each family being able to buy too much of it drives up prices for everything. You just saw what happens when demand outstrips supply universally. It's worse for the people on the lower end of the economic spectrum as everyone else can spend less on luxury without cutting back on necessity.

4 dollar a dozen eggs and 8 dollar a pound ground beef suck for the people who can delay the purchase of their 100K dollar truck but they are out of reach for the working class. The big cause was all the propping up the government did during the covid quarantines. The government did these quarantines because at the time the government prioritized the lives of the people over the health of the economy. Unfortunately that means to fix it we are going to all have to suffer economically for a bit.
 
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kizamybute'

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The government needed the economic pain to happen. It's as much about adjusting consumer behavior as it is about lowering inflation. Too many people had a standard unsustainably high for the available resources. There's only so much stuff to go around, and each family being able to buy too much of it drives up prices for everything. You just saw what happens when demand outstrips supply universally. It's worse for the people on the lower end of the economic spectrum as everyone else can spend less on luxury without cutting back on necessity.

4 dollar a dozen eggs and 8 dollar a pound ground beef suck for the people who can delay the purchase of their 100K dollar truck but they are out of reach for the working class. The big cause was all the propping up the government did during the covid quarantines. The government did these quarantines because at the time the government prioritized the lives of the people over the health of the economy. Unfortunately that means to fix it we are going to all have to suffer economically for a bit.
I agree. My point was that we saw this happening several years ago. When the stock market goes from 18,000 to 28,000 (dow) in 3 years or 4,300 to 7,000+ (nasdaq) or 2,000 to 3,000 (s&p 500) (50% gain in just three years), signs are there. Naturally, people had more money and were going to spend it. They need to adjust as the economy adjusts, rather than wait for it to get so out of whack, then try to get it all back at once!. Simply put! LOL
 

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I agree. My point was that we saw this happening several years ago. When the stock market goes from 18,000 to 28,000 (dow) in 3 years or 4,300 to 7,000+ (nasdaq) or 2,000 to 3,000 (s&p 500) (50% gain in just three years), signs are there. Naturally, people had more money and were going to spend it. They need to adjust as the economy adjusts, rather than wait for it to get so out of whack, then try to get it all back at once!. Simply put! LOL
They couldn't though, because they had all the stimulus programs for all the people out of work due to covid. That's a. big part of what drove the market into overdrive, it drove everything into overdrive. So it was a double edged sword, either let people starve while having to stay home or send the economy into overdrive.
 

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They couldn't though, because they had all the stimulus programs for all the people out of work due to covid. That's a. big part of what drove the market into overdrive, it drove everything into overdrive. So it was a double edged sword, either let people starve while having to stay home or send the economy into overdrive.
No doubt, Covid changed everything. The government then screwed that up to by giving virtually everyone a few dollars, even those that had no need for it (sending millionaires $1,200 checks or debit cards). Then they screwed up more by showing some people they could take in more income staying home and not working than they could by going back to work. They somewhat had the right intentions, but so horribly executed it. Anytime you effectively "print money", have to be prepared for the impacts. Automatically leads to inflation. They should have started preparing from the start, as they knew it was going to happen.
 

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I believe in Rivian. With all the cash it raised, it will be the only new USA car manufacture you will see in your lifetime besides Tesla. Opportunity already passed and closed for new comer.
Lucid will be owned by Saudi.
I am still in red, but will be in green.
 

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In case anyone is interested attached is a draft of a Rivian case study from Columbia business school. It is not a research report but gives a lot of background and some numbers to think about.
 

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No doubt, Covid changed everything. The government then screwed that up to by giving virtually everyone a few dollars, even those that had no need for it (sending millionaires $1,200 checks or debit cards). Then they screwed up more by showing some people they could take in more income staying home and not working than they could by going back to work. They somewhat had the right intentions, but so horribly executed it. Anytime you effectively "print money", have to be prepared for the impacts. Automatically leads to inflation. They should have started preparing from the start, as they knew it was going to happen.
IMO, leaders and regulators were too fearful to not over stimulate. Nobody knew what a nationwide shutdown would do, there was speculation of a great depression. It was impossible to get the payments just right, they would have rather errored on inflation side instead.
 

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I was spot on Lucid. Jumped 100%

I believe in Rivian. With all the cash it raised, it will be the only new USA car manufacture you will see in your lifetime besides Tesla. Opportunity already passed and closed for new comer.
Lucid will be owned by Saudi.
I am still in red, but will be in green.
 

the long way downunder

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Did you go buy a bunch of Lucid stock before the day started?
I assume that "I was right" comment was ironic.

The thing we did see this week is $TSLA is the most heavily manipulated meme-megacap stock on the market … astonishing 80% gain in 14 sessions … billions of institutional buying followed by the fomo of retail … presumably those retail buyers will find themselves held upside down by the ankles while the HFTs shake all the money out of their pockets.
 
 




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