Stock price - do people realize Rivian (RIVN) is NOT Tesla (TSLA)??

[Tahoe Man]

I bet my entire retirement fund on Rivian. Buy more and let's go! When people are scared, best time to buy.

Are you serious???

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[NY_Rob]

^ hopefully his "entire retirement fund" was only $100

 

[the long way downunder]

Wow, a new low isn't good. This would make me suspicious at best on making a $70k+ purchase given the risk if Rivian will be around in a few years.

Four huge challenges for Rivian: 1-Slow to possible economic recession. 2-High cost of money. 3-Tesla starting a price war. 4-Oncoming competition, crowded EV space.

Not sure if they can survive at this point.

The stock price isn't an indicator of the viability of Rivian.
Any clues as to corporate health will come in public statements, especially from Amazon, Bezos and fleet customers choosing anything other than the EDV.
For now, Rivian has billions in capital, a viable plan to open its factory, a backlog of retail orders, 100,000+ fleet orders, only two models to maintain in retail, three sizes of EDV. That's lean.
Rivian needs to work on production volume, initial quality and service.

I'm mightily impressed by their version 0.9b R1T … hopefully there's a solid R1T 1.0 or 1.1 in 2023 … it's mostly a software problem. The truck is great, the software is …

The thing that doesn't impress is the c-suite decision making, planning and communication. Rivian has a short and checkered corporate history – they've far too many times already failed to communicate with the customer and with the street.

p.s.
Somebody bought a lot at the bottom. I can only hope they see nothing but up from here and wave as they pass me at $30 … : )

 

[Tahoe Man]

The stock price isn't an indicator of the viability of Rivian.
Any clues as to corporate health will come in public statements, especially from Amazon, Bezos and fleet customers choosing anything other than the EDV.
For now, Rivian has billions in capital, a viable plan to open its factory, a backlog of retail orders, 100,000+ fleet orders, only two models to maintain in retail, three sizes of EDV. That's lean.
Rivian needs to work on production volume, initial quality and service.

I'm mightily impressed by their version 0.9b R1T … hopefully there's a solid R1T 1.0 or 1.1 in 2023 … it's mostly a software problem. The truck is great, the software is …

The thing that doesn't impress is the c-suite decision making, planning and communication. Rivian has a short and checkered corporate history – they've far too many times already failed to communicate with the customer and with the street.

p.s.
Somebody bought a lot at the bottom. I can only hope they see nothing but up from here and wave as they pass me at $30 … : )

Not sure how you can state that. A stock price (and bond price) definitely reflects a companies financial health.
Investors are betting the outlook has dimmed significantly compared to a year ago.

 

[Count Orlok]

Not sure how you can state that. A stock price (and bond price) definitely reflects a companies financial health.
Investors are betting the outlook has dimmed significantly compared to a year ago.

cool. now interpret Tesla over the past 20 months...

 

[Biturbowned]

Not sure how you can state that. A stock price (and bond price) definitely reflects a companies financial health.
Investors are betting the outlook has dimmed significantly compared to a year ago.

I don’t agree with this statement In the short-term. I bought more RIVN today.

 

[AbhorViolence]

I bought more today, got my average down to $25 now. The market is essentially betting that Rivian is going to go bk at this point. Seems much more likely that they'll be one of the survivors.

The "Tesla can lower prices to out compete" argument that seems to be killing all ev stocks right now might have some validity - with regard to something like Lucid.

Tesla has no products that compete with Rivian.

Rivian needs to survive until R2/new factory, build out their charging network, and improve customer service. And they'll be looking quite good in 5-10 years.

 

[Riviot]

I don’t agree with this statement In the short-term. I bought more RIVN today.

Sorry @Tahoe Man but I don't agree either, it's all gambling. I've better odds with roulette but this is more fun and as an owner I'm invested (pun!) in their success. I doubled down again today. 700 shares averaging $33!

 

[Biturbowned]

Sorry @Tahoe Man but I don't agree either, it's all gambling. I've better odds with roulette but this is more fun and as an owner I'm invested (pun!) in their success. I doubled down again today. 700 shares averaging $33!

“"We have people who know nothing about stocks being advised by stock brokers who know even less," Munger said. "It's an incredible, crazy situation. I don't think any wise country would want this outcome. Why would you want your country's stock to trade on a casino?"”

 

[Riviot]

Why would you want your country's stock to trade on a casino?"”

 

[Tahoe Man]

Sorry @Tahoe Man but I don't agree either, it's all gambling. I've better odds with roulette but this is more fun and as an owner I'm invested (pun!) in their success. I doubled down again today. 700 shares averaging $33!

No way is it gambling. If the Fed came out tonight and said they had an emergency meeting and were lowering interest rates back down, this thing would face rip higher.

RIVN shit in the past year because the Fed stated they will slow the economy, probably into a recession, this is done on purpose.
Tesla lowering prices is not coincidental with the Fed tightening cycle.

Analyst calculate their intrinsic value based on many factors. They don't roll some dice and decide to buy or sell based off that.

The economy is slowing, so stocks gets squeezed because investor confidence decreases. It's much much harder for Rivian to survive if job loses start to ramp up, spending decreases and the economy goes negative. I'm not sure how that is gambling.

 

[Biturbowned]

Analyst calculate their intrinsic value based on many factors. They don't roll some dice and decide to buy or sell based off

“The 18 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Rivian Automotive Inc have a median target of 41.50, with a high estimate of 63.00 and a low estimate of 19.00. The median estimate represents a +151.52% increase from the last price of 16.50.”
I agree that the economy is slowing and I also agree that it will be tough sledding for Rivian, but to call for the big BK is speculative.

edit: my entire portfolio is full of stocks where analysts have price targets 200%-500% from current values.

 

[quartz]

It seems growth is starting to come back into rotation after heavy value tilt in 2022. Profitability is still king, but with all the carnage around, the vultures are sure to come after the easy pickings.

Just bought 420 shares of RIVN with my $6,500 IRA allowance

 

[DuoRivians]

I agree with Bezos says: in the short term, stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, it’s a weighing machine.

Right now, selling/shorting unprofitable tech is vogue, largely done by algos. It is not indicative of any single company’s health; rather, entire baskets are shorted.

Is $rivn a risky bet? Yes. But, I think their core users have an opportunity to use their insights to better ascertain the company’s long term value, than indiscriminate selling/shorting happening now.

Edit: I’ve once held Tesla back in 2015-2016. The amount of hate and denial was much more than what Rivian receives today. Funny enough:

- A lot of Rivian hate comes from $tsla fanboys
- Rivian’s enterprise value is significantly less now than when $tsla crossed 25k vehicle production.

 

[DuoRivians]

No way is it gambling. If the Fed came out tonight and said they had an emergency meeting and were lowering interest rates back down, this thing would face rip higher.

RIVN shit in the past year because the Fed stated they will slow the economy, probably into a recession, this is done on purpose.
Tesla lowering prices is not coincidental with the Fed tightening cycle.

Analyst calculate their intrinsic value based on many factors. They don't roll some dice and decide to buy or sell based off that.

The economy is slowing, so stocks gets squeezed because investor confidence decreases. It's much much harder for Rivian to survive if job loses start to ramp up, spending decreases and the economy goes negative. I'm not sure how that is gambling.

Fed is going 25bps in Feb 1st, and will likely hold there for a while, ie FFR not going to 5%+. Don’t read too much into the doomsday recession picture. Real GDP in 2023 is going to be above 0.5%. Employment (outside of professional services and tech) is holding firm. And Atlanta Fed GDP is holding up well at 3.5% for Q4. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Data say quite unlikely for things to fall off a cliff, although the narrative says otherwise

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