Stats for site Delivery Surveys, Delivery Status, Delivery Windows

[nc10]

I have been looking over last November's "window delivery" survey and the currently active "actual delivery" survey on the site. A few comments are below. Nothing surprising, but posting FWIW. My thanks to the site (and members!) for collecting and posting the data. (My apologies for "stealing/borrowing" the data for this post)

1. 92 R1T deliveries have been documented on the site survey as of today. Only 3 of the 92 did not list their delivery window. Of the rest, only 14 (15.2%) had delivery windows later than Mar/April. >81% had delivery windows of Mar/April or earlier. It does seem Rivian is making a decent, though imperfect, effort to keep to the order of delivery window forecasts.

2. Although Rivian appears to be starting R1S (and possibly non LE-R1T) deliveries, Rivian is not yet at the halfway point of filling LE R1T preorders, I estimate 25-40% from looking at the survey data .

Background.
468 R1T delivery windows were listed on last years delivery window survey bar chart, there is a slightly larger number on the associated spreadsheet. There are a few data gaps, so I cant' make the spreadsheet and charts match completely, but it looks like about 300 of those pre orders are LE R1T's (launch edition NOT Explore or Adventure), and almost all of those with Mar/April or earlier are LE preorders.
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-sends-delivery-window-e-mail-what’s-your-dates-vote-in-poll.2886/

Two delivery windows should be complete or in progress now.

11 members posted R1T "Early" delivery windows before Mar/April. It appears most of these are now complete, based on forum posts.
7 have received their R1T's
3 have not been on the site for least a month (you can see the last site visit for most on their profile).
1 member has made no posts, but seems to visit the site frequently. LIkely some of these last 4 have R1T's now.

122 member posted R1T delivery windows in the Mar/April timeframe in last years survey. (R1S data is not part of the "122"")

Forum posts/data indicate of these 122 members with Mar/April delivery windows:
41 have received their R1T's (34%)
66 have visited the site recently, but I see no posts or data indicating a R1T has been received. (54%) For a majority of these members, their posts make it clear that they are still waiting. There are a few I can't be sure about, visit the site, but never or rarely post. I "guess" a few of these have their R1T's, ballpark 10% (6-7)?.
1 member was banned, 14, have had no site activity or visits at all for at least 1 month. (12%) You would expect some of these to have received their R1T's, I would estimate it would the same ratio as the rest, but its a small sample size, so errors possible, best guess 4-5 have R1T's.

Of the last two groups, if I assume 12 have received R1T's without posting any indication on this site, there would be 53 (out of 122) deliveries from this group as a whole (43%).

I've not looked closely at the later delivery windows.

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[Whmorken]

I have been looking over last November's "window delivery" survey and the currently active "actual delivery" survey on the site. A few comments are below. Nothing surprising, but posting FWIW. My thanks to the site (and members!) for collecting and posting the data. (My apologies for "stealing/borrowing" the data for this post)

1. 92 R1T deliveries have been documented on the site survey as of today. Only 3 of the 92 did not list their delivery window. Of the rest, only 14 (15.2%) had delivery windows later than Mar/April. >81% had delivery windows of Mar/April or earlier. It does seem Rivian is making a decent, though imperfect, effort to keep to the order of delivery window forecasts.

2. Although Rivian appears to be starting R1S (and possibly non LE-R1T) deliveries, Rivian is not yet at the halfway point of filling LE R1T preorders, I estimate 25-40% from looking at the survey data .

Background.
468 R1T delivery windows were listed on last years delivery window survey bar chart, there is a slightly larger number on the associated spreadsheet. There are a few data gaps, so I cant' make the spreadsheet and charts match completely, but it looks like about 300 of those pre orders are LE R1T's (launch edition NOT Explore or Adventure), and almost all of those with Mar/April or earlier are LE preorders.
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-sends-delivery-window-e-mail-what’s-your-dates-vote-in-poll.2886/

Two delivery windows should be complete or in progress now.

11 members posted R1T "Early" delivery windows before Mar/April. It appears most of these are now complete, based on forum posts.
7 have received their R1T's
3 have not been on the site for least a month (you can see the last site visit for most on their profile).
1 member has made no posts, but seems to visit the site frequently. LIkely some of these last 4 have R1T's now.

122 member posted R1T delivery windows in the Mar/April timeframe in last years survey. (R1S data is not part of the "122"")

Forum posts/data indicate of these 122 members with Mar/April delivery windows:
41 have received their R1T's (34%)
66 have visited the site recently, but I see no posts or data indicating a R1T has been received. (54%) For a majority of these members, their posts make it clear that they are still waiting. There are a few I can't be sure about, visit the site, but never or rarely post. I "guess" a few of these have their R1T's, ballpark 10% (6-7)?.
1 member was banned, 14, have had no site activity or visits at all for at least 1 month. (12%) You would expect some of these to have received their R1T's, I would estimate it would the same ratio as the rest, but its a small sample size, so errors possible, best guess 4-5 have R1T's.

Of the last two groups, if I assume 12 have received R1T's without posting any indication on this site, there would be 53 (out of 122) deliveries from this group as a whole (43%).

I've not looked closely at the later delivery windows.

I hoe you do look closely at the the later delivery windows. Good work!

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I have been looking over last November's "window delivery" survey and the currently active "actual delivery" survey on the site. A few comments are below. Nothing surprising, but posting FWIW. My thanks to the site (and members!) for collecting and posting the data. (My apologies for "stealing/borrowing" the data for this post)

1. 92 R1T deliveries have been documented on the site survey as of today. Only 3 of the 92 did not list their delivery window. Of the rest, only 14 (15.2%) had delivery windows later than Mar/April. >81% had delivery windows of Mar/April or earlier. It does seem Rivian is making a decent, though imperfect, effort to keep to the order of delivery window forecasts.

2. Although Rivian appears to be starting R1S (and possibly non LE-R1T) deliveries, Rivian is not yet at the halfway point of filling LE R1T preorders, I estimate 25-40% from looking at the survey data .

Background.
468 R1T delivery windows were listed on last years delivery window survey bar chart, there is a slightly larger number on the associated spreadsheet. There are a few data gaps, so I cant' make the spreadsheet and charts match completely, but it looks like about 300 of those pre orders are LE R1T's (launch edition NOT Explore or Adventure), and almost all of those with Mar/April or earlier are LE preorders.
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-sends-delivery-window-e-mail-what’s-your-dates-vote-in-poll.2886/

Two delivery windows should be complete or in progress now.

11 members posted R1T "Early" delivery windows before Mar/April. It appears most of these are now complete, based on forum posts.
7 have received their R1T's
3 have not been on the site for least a month (you can see the last site visit for most on their profile).
1 member has made no posts, but seems to visit the site frequently. LIkely some of these last 4 have R1T's now.

122 member posted R1T delivery windows in the Mar/April timeframe in last years survey. (R1S data is not part of the "122"")

Forum posts/data indicate of these 122 members with Mar/April delivery windows:
41 have received their R1T's (34%)
66 have visited the site recently, but I see no posts or data indicating a R1T has been received. (54%) For a majority of these members, their posts make it clear that they are still waiting. There are a few I can't be sure about, visit the site, but never or rarely post. I "guess" a few of these have their R1T's, ballpark 10% (6-7)?.
1 member was banned, 14, have had no site activity or visits at all for at least 1 month. (12%) You would expect some of these to have received their R1T's, I would estimate it would the same ratio as the rest, but its a small sample size, so errors possible, best guess 4-5 have R1T's.

Of the last two groups, if I assume 12 have received R1T's without posting any indication on this site, there would be 53 (out of 122) deliveries from this group as a whole (43%).

I've not looked closely at the later delivery windows.

This is solid work but I noticed that you didn't include the proper cover sheet. Did you get the memo about the new cover sheet for delivery analysis reports?

 

[Craigins]

I have been looking over last November's "window delivery" survey and the currently active "actual delivery" survey on the site. A few comments are below. Nothing surprising, but posting FWIW. My thanks to the site (and members!) for collecting and posting the data. (My apologies for "stealing/borrowing" the data for this post)

1. 92 R1T deliveries have been documented on the site survey as of today. Only 3 of the 92 did not list their delivery window. Of the rest, only 14 (15.2%) had delivery windows later than Mar/April. >81% had delivery windows of Mar/April or earlier. It does seem Rivian is making a decent, though imperfect, effort to keep to the order of delivery window forecasts.

2. Although Rivian appears to be starting R1S (and possibly non LE-R1T) deliveries, Rivian is not yet at the halfway point of filling LE R1T preorders, I estimate 25-40% from looking at the survey data .

Background.
468 R1T delivery windows were listed on last years delivery window survey bar chart, there is a slightly larger number on the associated spreadsheet. There are a few data gaps, so I cant' make the spreadsheet and charts match completely, but it looks like about 300 of those pre orders are LE R1T's (launch edition NOT Explore or Adventure), and almost all of those with Mar/April or earlier are LE preorders.
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-sends-delivery-window-e-mail-what’s-your-dates-vote-in-poll.2886/

Two delivery windows should be complete or in progress now.

11 members posted R1T "Early" delivery windows before Mar/April. It appears most of these are now complete, based on forum posts.
7 have received their R1T's
3 have not been on the site for least a month (you can see the last site visit for most on their profile).
1 member has made no posts, but seems to visit the site frequently. LIkely some of these last 4 have R1T's now.

122 member posted R1T delivery windows in the Mar/April timeframe in last years survey. (R1S data is not part of the "122"")

Forum posts/data indicate of these 122 members with Mar/April delivery windows:
41 have received their R1T's (34%)
66 have visited the site recently, but I see no posts or data indicating a R1T has been received. (54%) For a majority of these members, their posts make it clear that they are still waiting. There are a few I can't be sure about, visit the site, but never or rarely post. I "guess" a few of these have their R1T's, ballpark 10% (6-7)?.
1 member was banned, 14, have had no site activity or visits at all for at least 1 month. (12%) You would expect some of these to have received their R1T's, I would estimate it would the same ratio as the rest, but its a small sample size, so errors possible, best guess 4-5 have R1T's.

Of the last two groups, if I assume 12 have received R1T's without posting any indication on this site, there would be 53 (out of 122) deliveries from this group as a whole (43%).

I've not looked closely at the later delivery windows.

I've been hearing you aren't using the new cover sheet for your reports. A memo was sent out earlier this week. I'll make sure you get another copy.

(sorry had to go full office space for the effect)

 

[Jac]

I have been looking over last November's "window delivery" survey and the currently active "actual delivery" survey on the site. A few comments are below. Nothing surprising, but posting FWIW. My thanks to the site (and members!) for collecting and posting the data. (My apologies for "stealing/borrowing" the data for this post)

1. 92 R1T deliveries have been documented on the site survey as of today. Only 3 of the 92 did not list their delivery window. Of the rest, only 14 (15.2%) had delivery windows later than Mar/April. >81% had delivery windows of Mar/April or earlier. It does seem Rivian is making a decent, though imperfect, effort to keep to the order of delivery window forecasts.

2. Although Rivian appears to be starting R1S (and possibly non LE-R1T) deliveries, Rivian is not yet at the halfway point of filling LE R1T preorders, I estimate 25-40% from looking at the survey data .

Background.
468 R1T delivery windows were listed on last years delivery window survey bar chart, there is a slightly larger number on the associated spreadsheet. There are a few data gaps, so I cant' make the spreadsheet and charts match completely, but it looks like about 300 of those pre orders are LE R1T's (launch edition NOT Explore or Adventure), and almost all of those with Mar/April or earlier are LE preorders.
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-sends-delivery-window-e-mail-what’s-your-dates-vote-in-poll.2886/

Two delivery windows should be complete or in progress now.

11 members posted R1T "Early" delivery windows before Mar/April. It appears most of these are now complete, based on forum posts.
7 have received their R1T's
3 have not been on the site for least a month (you can see the last site visit for most on their profile).
1 member has made no posts, but seems to visit the site frequently. LIkely some of these last 4 have R1T's now.

122 member posted R1T delivery windows in the Mar/April timeframe in last years survey. (R1S data is not part of the "122"")

Forum posts/data indicate of these 122 members with Mar/April delivery windows:
41 have received their R1T's (34%)
66 have visited the site recently, but I see no posts or data indicating a R1T has been received. (54%) For a majority of these members, their posts make it clear that they are still waiting. There are a few I can't be sure about, visit the site, but never or rarely post. I "guess" a few of these have their R1T's, ballpark 10% (6-7)?.
1 member was banned, 14, have had no site activity or visits at all for at least 1 month. (12%) You would expect some of these to have received their R1T's, I would estimate it would the same ratio as the rest, but its a small sample size, so errors possible, best guess 4-5 have R1T's.

Of the last two groups, if I assume 12 have received R1T's without posting any indication on this site, there would be 53 (out of 122) deliveries from this group as a whole (43%).

I've not looked closely at the later delivery windows.

Did you assume 100% of the 122 or so pool of LE R1T pre-orders reported on the survey back in November have persisted as pre-orders from then until now? I guess if they recently visited or posted it’s likely those people haven’t canceled.

 

[nc10]

Did you assume 100% of the 122 or so pool of LE R1T pre-orders reported on the survey back in November have persisted as pre-orders from then until now? I guess if they recently visited or posted it’s likely those people haven’t canceled.

That was my thought. I probably could have made more notes on my spreadsheet to track those more carefully, ie, how many had configs in their sig lines or something, but it seemed like a lot were still waiting with strong interest in getting their vehicle.

To me, these numbers just confirm what I think is semi-obvious, Rivian is still closer to the beginning of delivering LE R1T's than it is to the end, and there are a lot of unfilled delivery slots ahead of me and my May/June slot, even ignoring the R1S and non-LE slots. I'd sure like to get my vehicle before the supply chain breaks down too much further. My estimate is there won't be many slots eliminated by cancellation.

 

[kayabusa]

They just post 2,553 deliveries for the first quarter, that's mean an average of 851 per month. (combined R1T, R1S and EDV)
The total number of vehicle deliveries went up to 3,568.

If I place an order today, when do you guys think I will be taking delivery ?

 

[nc10]

If I place an order today, when do you guys think I will be taking delivery ?

Two years from now? Pretty big error bars. Rivian is forecasting to make 15k R1 vehicles in 2022, and 10k delivery vans, limited by supply chain, not plant capacity. On 3/10 rivian announced they had 83,000 preorders for R1 vehicles. Dual motor variants are forecasted to be available 2nd half 2023, standard (smaller) battery pack in 2024.

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