Skeptical Of Rivian's Prices

[Diddy123]

It makes little to no difference for some, but sticking with my order if there's a price increase just isn't feasible for me.

Same.

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[fromSf]

They’ve effectively raised the price multiple times by continuously removing previously announced standard features. I’m not sure why this always gets overlooked. The price has remained mostly unchanged, but what you’re receiving in exchange has seriously diminished.

No LIDAR
No photochromatic roof (several thousand dollar value)
No 180 tailgate
No powered tailgate
Significantly reduced level Of finish in the frunk
No level 3 autonomy without a subscription
Probably others I’m forgetting right now

They’ve eliminated many thousands in cost/value without reducing the price.

Very valid points, removal of these features should be considered as increase in price. Also no 800V architecture.

 

[PastyPilgrim]

I could see a world in which Rivian was cutting features to get their first offerings to be fairly economical in order to build the brand/etc. before introducing lower cost vehicles later at which point the flagship vehicles would get some new features to differentiate (perhaps even some/all of the originally cut features) and a price increase.

Basically, R1T up to 80k and R2T down to 60k or something like that. Though I agree that where the tax credit situation falls is likely to have a big impact on Rivian's strategy.

I think a lot will depend on the success of their subscription, service, accessories, and other monetization vectors. If they're able to make 10k off the life of every vehicle, then why not sell them close to cost? Personally I'd rather just pay the 10k up front and never see Rivian's palms again, but that's not the world we live in anymore.

 

[bd5400]

GUT FEELING 1: No meaningful price adjustments conveyed despite significant inflation and supply chain disruption, huge increases at Tesla

GUT FEELING 2: Current Model Y Performance is $63K, 82 kwh, dual motor, fixed suspension. $68K R1T has 135 kwh, 4 motors, adaptive air suspension, and a much larger vehicle. Lucid's cheapest vehicle is ~$80K. New vehicles like EV6/Ioniq5, Mach-E are all easily pushing $60K+, despite being much smaller, simpler vehicles with much smaller battery capacity.

FROM THE HORSES MOUTH: Exec from discrimination lawsuit claimed exactly this, that pricing structure isn't realistic and that Rivian's plan is to increase prices post-IPO

Obviously this is all speculation, but everything that sounds too good to be true always is. Tesla's cheapest vehicle with air suspension is $95K and that's a smaller vehicle with a smaller battery. I just don't see how a brand new company can sell an 800 HP EV truck that competes with Land Rover suspension and interior quality for what they're quoting.

One thing to keep in mind, that I haven't seen directly mentioned yet in this thread, is that Tesla's profit margins on its vehicles are significantly higher than average in the industry. While its prices can help inform what the market is willing to pay, Tesla's prices do not reflect any sort of minimum pricing for company profitability.

 

[R1T7777]

I have said since the R1T and R1S prices were revealed that despite the vehicles being obviously quite expensive, they are actually a an amazing value when you consider what you're getting and what you're competing against. Unfortunately I am personally becoming less and less convinced that these advertised prices can actually be legit due to a few reasons:

GUT FEELING 1: No meaningful price adjustments conveyed despite significant inflation and supply chain disruption, huge increases at Tesla

GUT FEELING 2: Current Model Y Performance is $63K, 82 kwh, dual motor, fixed suspension. $68K R1T has 135 kwh, 4 motors, adaptive air suspension, and a much larger vehicle. Lucid's cheapest vehicle is ~$80K. New vehicles like EV6/Ioniq5, Mach-E are all easily pushing $60K+, despite being much smaller, simpler vehicles with much smaller battery capacity.

GUT FEELING 3: Comparable pricing to Ford Lightning (similarly equipped), despite Ford being able to leverage huge swaths of their existing F-150 production line and supply chain. Despite this, Ford will still only build 20K units in 2022 and will prob not make money on them.

FROM THE HORSES MOUTH: Exec from discrimination lawsuit claimed exactly this, that pricing structure isn't realistic and that Rivian's plan is to increase prices post-IPO

Obviously this is all speculation, but everything that sounds too good to be true always is. Tesla's cheapest vehicle with air suspension is $95K and that's a smaller vehicle with a smaller battery. I just don't see how a brand new company can sell an 800 HP EV truck that competes with Land Rover suspension and interior quality for what they're quoting.

I just hope pre-order holders get the advertised price, and then demand is high enough they raise prices. Keep that resale value high.

 

[mike22co]

I love to speculate as much as the next person. We will see what ends up happening, it's all very opaque right now, at least it seems that way. Maybe the IPO will clear the air a bit once that is done, they have the capital in hand and can freely move into the next stage of the company growth.

I do think that Rivian can and will introduce new models (RJ said this in an interview maybe 2 years ago that they have 3 more vehicles) and in the near term, I think they will get more buyers with less features. They aren't all concerned about getting the 55,000 pre-order holders out there into their R1* vehicles, they need to get a million people into vehicles in the next several years. They have features to play with in the R1* and they can easily make a base model that has:

• Explore package as base, Adventure or other flavors are add-ins
• Dual motor. The S1 states the plans for dual and tri-motor vehicles. Upgrade to quad
• Smaller battery pack.
• Base interior included, all others add-ins
• 5 Seat Standard (R1S), add-in 7 seats
• Slower acceleration (like Tesla does), upgrade to faster with OTA key
• More subscription services (they mention their Cloud a lot in the S1)
• Same or similar price to the today LE R1*

That would effectively show off the pre-order holders quality and capabilities for a few years and get people excited for the brand. But then the current R1* is maybe $17,000 more in overall cost. The big question would be: when do the prices go up or features go down? After 10,000 deliveries? 15,000? All pre-orders? I could really see people (like myself) in the 2021 order group ending up with an R1S that has dual motors, less performance and smaller battery pack for nearly what is being sold today prices. Then we all have debates in our heads of "do I really need 0-60 in 3 seconds? Or is 4.5 good enough?" or "will I use the quad-motors? Dual seems OK, right?"

Other things from the S1 that stand out as potential future earnings are:

• Using EDV vans to map out the streets for autonomous driving (potentially used here)
• The way they get to 200,000 vehicles out of Normal is with new vehicle offerings
• "Future products will remain tightly aligned with our active lifestyle-oriented brand position, but the segments, sizes, and pricing will intentionally attract different types of buyers to ensure we grow our addressable market as we expand the portfolio."
• Financing. Speculation on my part, but based on the privacy information and telemetry data they have, it's pretty easy to say "you did 0-60 in 3.0sec 12 times last month, your rates are going up 80%" There are lots of switches they could flip on the insurance side, so many.
• "We believe our partnership with Amazon and its initial order of 100,000 EDVs, subject to modification as described below under “Certain Relationships and Related Party Transactions,” together with our growing base of preorders for R1T and R1S, will provide accelerated scale and demand predictability. In addition, we expect the experiences we will gain with Amazon as we deliver their fleet of EDVs will enable us to improve our product offerings and build capabilities to support future fleet solutions."

LCID is up 5% today and RIVN added some ~25% to the offering to make up for it. Bold moves, see what happens.

 

[Acoustic71]

I predict that <brand> will raise the price of <product> in <year>.

Fill in the blanks however you want and most likely the prediction will come true.

This..... ^

 

[Trekkie]

In a perfect world, people who put $1k down before the car starts shipping and demand increases get the car for the price targets that were put in.

People who waited, and didn't put $1k down get a new price.

That's how I'd like to see it done, i'm also not in charge of anything and just an idealist.

 

[Fred6v]

Nothing I need more when adventuring is Lidar and a sunroof. ? In the big picture those are superfluous. My concern is adding extended range and/or accessories and you are above $80k and there goes the EV tax credit out the window. Extended at $10k is justifiable but $17.5k would suck!

 

[protamine]

Echoing the other points, this vehicle when announced was going to be in the 100-110 range. It has been decontented. Seems like a great value at 80.

R1T has no equivalent

R1S in terms of performance youd be looking at X3 M Competition for acceleration and thats a small 5 seat with no off road abilites. A Durango Hellcat would be close as well but has been neutered for offroad and is a decade behind on tech and fit/finish.

Elon (and the eventual GM/Ford EVs) announcing the CT and Lightning at 39k made a 100k entry not feasible.

 

[thrill]

Echoing the other points, this vehicle when announced was going to be in the 100-110 range. It has been decontented. Seems like a great value at 80.

R1T has no equivalent

R1S in terms of performance youd be looking at X3 M Competition for acceleration and thats a small 5 seat with no off road abilites. A Durango Hellcat would be close as well but has been neutered for offroad and is a decade behind on tech and fit/finish.

Elon (and the eventual GM/Ford EVs) announcing the CT and Lightning at 39k made a 100k entry not feasible.

In Rivian's first press release discussing price it was stated as starting at $61,500 after the tax credit. The only capability I can recall that was shown and is not now available is the 180-degree tailgate. The only ones that I recall that were discussed but not available were V2G, which is expected later via software, and the fancy electrochromic glass roof. The only teaser that I've seen on prototypes seems to have been dropped that I'm miffed about is the yellow tow hooks, which I thought added a really nice little piece of bling. There's likely other stuff, but I can't think of any right now.

https://rivian.com/newsroom/article...c-adventure-vehicles-with-debut-of-r1t-pickup

 

[Ladiver]

If Rivian increases the price of the LE R1T, I will still buy it but will have a very lightly used R1T for sale for anyone not wanting to wait years for theirs.

I am also very concerned the Rivian has clearly stated that they expect additional revenue of $67,900 over 10 years! Sounds like we will be nickel and dimed to death to keep driving the vehicle! I surely won't be spending all that extra! All I do with my current truck is oil changes and tire rotations. Not sure what I will need to do with the Rivian...

 

[MIG]

I am also very concerned the Rivian has clearly stated that they expect additional revenue of $67,900 over 10 years! Sounds like we will be nickel and dimed to death to keep driving the vehicle!

Where did this particular game of "telephone" originate? Their S-1 showed potential revenue of $15,000, but by no means mandatory. It was $10,000 for self-driving capability and $550/year for membership (which appears to include free charging). Your choice as to whether you want either.

 

[Ladiver]

Where did this particular game of "telephone" originate? Their S-1 showed potential revenue of $15,000, but by no means mandatory. It was $10,000 for self-driving capability and $550/year for membership (which appears to include free charging). Your choice as to whether you want either.

I'll find it in the S-1 later, but I noticed it in the first version of the S-1.

 

[freshpow]

Where did this particular game of "telephone" originate? Their S-1 showed potential revenue of $15,000, but by no means mandatory. It was $10,000 for self-driving capability and $550/year for membership (which appears to include free charging). Your choice as to whether you want either.

Here is the breakdown of the $67.9k potential lifetime revenue, as detailed in the S1.

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