SHOP app gave me a possible order number.

KickRocksRiv

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Hey all , I have an app called “SHOP” which tracks things that I order. After placing my preorder it popped into that app with an order number. Obviously I modified my order number for privacy. But this is a screen grab of what I received.
I’m the 54000 range. Could this actually be my place in line ? Could there really be around 54k preorders? I know they also send out a welcome package, which could be what this order number is Used for.


It may be noting or it could be something . Interested to hear everyone’s thoughts.

94A53840-C5F7-48CF-959B-DF41582A4BFC.jpeg
 
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electruck

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Similary, back in Feb 2020, someone else derived their "order number" from the Arrive app. That was #41900. If there is any relationship at all between these numbers and the number of pre-orders, it doesn't seem unreasonable to have gone from 41900 in Feb to 54000 by July. While I there may be some correlation to the number of pre-orders, we don't know if they even started counting from 0.

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...ave-you-pre-ordered-with-deposit.43/post-5933
 

ajdelange

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I just calculated (by looking at pigeon entrails) that the number of reservations is around 100,000. Given the accuracy of my method 54,000 isn't unreasonable.
 

johnjohn

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I installed the SHOP app but it couldn't find any info from my emails about the pre-order I did back in May 2020. It's asking for a tracking #, package name, and carrier. Anyone have luck?
 
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KickRocksRiv

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I installed the SHOP app but it couldn't find any info from my emails about the pre-order I did back in May 2020. It's asking for a tracking #, package name, and carrier. Anyone have luck?
I had the shop app already when I placed my order. It pulled the info automatically, I don’t think you would be able to pull it with out. (maybe entering the tracking # that came on the vehicle sketch they sent)
 

805Badger

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My wife has been going on about all the things she is going to "borrow" my R1T for that her Model X can't do, so I placed a second reservation in early July and the order number was in the 52000 range. Initial pre-order was before I installed the app, so can't give you any data on that one. Not sure how much I would trust that number for a place in line, but at least they appear to be increasing...
 

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I put in my order for the R1S back in December of 2018, and my Shop app says I’m order #3770

Edit: Is it possible that these order numbers are just the Shop/Arrive app’s internal counter? Like, I’m the Xth person to order the vehicle while the app was installed, as opposed to the number being the place in Rivian’s internal line.
 

johnjohn

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I had the shop app already when I placed my order. It pulled the info automatically, I don’t think you would be able to pull it with out. (maybe entering the tracking # that came on the vehicle sketch they sent)
I will give that a try. Thanks
 

skyote

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Who are our smart web dev guys here? I'm not a coder, but took a quick look the HTML source of my preorder email from Dec 2018.

Are the preorder emails still coming from Shopify (my early one did)? I didn't see an obvious order # in the source, unless it's "hidden" in hex. Any chance that Arrive/Shop has a backend API to Shopify that's pulling the order #s?
 

skyote

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I put in my order for the R1S back in December of 2018, and my Shop app says I’m order #3770

Edit: Is it possible that these order numbers are just the Shop/Arrive app’s internal counter? Like, I’m the Xth person to order the vehicle while the app was installed, as opposed to the number being the place in Rivian’s internal line.
When in December 2018? I think 3-4K sounds perfectly reasonable for actual order # around that timeframe, but not an internal counter for Arrive/Shop (would require almost 4K Rivian preorders that had the app...unlikely).
 
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Coast2Coast

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The Shop app numbers are interesting. Here's what gets me going.

1. Even if numbers are Shop/Arrive app's internal counter, wouldn't that mean actual numbers of Rivian preorders were larger since Shop/Arrive is tracking a subset of actual preorders?

2. There's consistency in Shop app numbers and chronology.
a) Dec 2018 Shop app number of #3770.
b) Feb 2020 Shop app #41900
c) early July Shop app #52000
d) late July Shop app #54000

3. Take Dec 2018's Shop app #, 3770, and say, okay, that's about 4,000 preorders per month, 19 months later, we're at 76,000 preorders. A little high. But let's say there's an initial rush of enthusiasm for BEV pickups & SUVs in Dec 2018. Let's back off a bit and say, an average of 3,000 preorders per month; that 57,000 preorders which is real close to recent Shop app #54,000.

4. If we say 50,000 R1T/S preorders & 10,000 Amazon vans by 2023, that's 60K vehicles to be produced from Q2 2021 to Q4 2023, for an average of 30K vehicles per year.

a) The first full year of production, Q2 2021 to Q2 2022, Rivian will be doing extremely well to produce 30,000 vehicles (IMHO). There's a lot to figure out, coordinate, correct, revamp, revise and redo. Rivian is very quality conscious. I think 20-25K units in the first full year of production.

b) But production will pick up nicely in the second full year of production.

c) In short, there are enough preorders for two full years of production at Normal.

5. If it takes two full years of production in order to clear out preorders, you could say that Rivian is production constrained. However, that's almost always the case with start-ups that get a lot of attention before they actually go into production. Anticipation precedes production.

6. During the initial two years of production, 2021-2023, Rivian, Rivians & RJ will get an extraordinary amount of attention in the press and media. Review after review, interview after interview, highlight after highlight. Thereafter, demand will jump tremendously.

The question will become, how quickly can Rivian expand production at Normal? Not quickly enough to satisfy greatly increased demand, in my opinion. By 2024, demand could well exceed a hundred thousand units and, by 2025, maybe 200,000.

By 2025, if all goes extremely well at Normal, Rivian might be producing 200K vehicles/year, and supply and demand might be in equilibrium, as an economist might say.

But, we're true believers on this Forum site. We're enthusiasts, over-optimistic. Yet, as is often said, hope for the best and plan for the worst. I think we can safely say Rivian has enough orders and has enough capacity to grow nicely - as quickly as it wants - through the next 3-4 years. By then, it's proven its case or it hasn't. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
 

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The Shop app numbers are interesting. Here's what gets me going.

1. Even if numbers are Shop/Arrive app's internal counter, wouldn't that mean actual numbers of Rivian preorders were larger since Shop/Arrive is tracking a subset of actual preorders?

2. There's consistency in Shop app numbers and chronology.
a) Dec 2018 Shop app number of #3770.
b) Feb 2020 Shop app #41900
c) early July Shop app #52000
d) late July Shop app #54000

3. Take Dec 2018's Shop app #, 3770, and say, okay, that's about 4,000 preorders per month, 19 months later, we're at 76,000 preorders. A little high. But let's say there's an initial rush of enthusiasm for BEV pickups & SUVs in Dec 2018. Let's back off a bit and say, an average of 3,000 preorders per month; that 57,000 preorders which is real close to recent Shop app #54,000.

4. If we say 50,000 R1T/S preorders & 10,000 Amazon vans by 2023, that's 60K vehicles to be produced from Q2 2021 to Q4 2023, for an average of 30K vehicles per year.

a) The first full year of production, Q2 2021 to Q2 2022, Rivian will be doing extremely well to produce 30,000 vehicles (IMHO). There's a lot to figure out, coordinate, correct, revamp, revise and redo. Rivian is very quality conscious. I think 20-25K units in the first full year of production.

b) But production will pick up nicely in the second full year of production.

c) In short, there are enough preorders for two full years of production at Normal.

5. If it takes two full years of production in order to clear out preorders, you could say that Rivian is production constrained. However, that's almost always the case with start-ups that get a lot of attention before they actually go into production. Anticipation precedes production.

6. During the initial two years of production, 2021-2023, Rivian, Rivians & RJ will get an extraordinary amount of attention in the press and media. Review after review, interview after interview, highlight after highlight. Thereafter, demand will jump tremendously.

The question will become, how quickly can Rivian expand production at Normal? Not quickly enough to satisfy greatly increased demand, in my opinion. By 2024, demand could well exceed a hundred thousand units and, by 2025, maybe 200,000.

By 2025, if all goes extremely well at Normal, Rivian might be producing 200K vehicles/year, and supply and demand might be in equilibrium, as an economist might say.

But, we're true believers on this Forum site. We're enthusiasts, over-optimistic. Yet, as is often said, hope for the best and plan for the worst. I think we can safely say Rivian has enough orders and has enough capacity to grow nicely - as quickly as it wants - through the next 3-4 years. By then, it's proven its case or it hasn't. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
This is a great assessment. The one issue I see with it is that you are assuming a 100% conversion rate on preorders. I don't know what it will actually shake out to be, but certainly there will be some erosion once people see the final price, options, etc. I wonder what the Tesla preorder conversion percentage is?

Edit: Some quick googling shows conversion rate on model X and model 3 are somewhere between 10% and 30%. However, there will certainly be a large delta between Tesla's $100 deposit holders converting and the $1000 we all plunked down for Rivian.

Edit #2: Found a Barrons article that says when Tesla was charging $1000 deposits back in the day, conversion rate was ~70%. That seems like a good number for us to potentially go on.
 
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skyote

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FOUND IT! You better do it quick before they update the website. Click the link for "View Details" in your preorder confirmation email.

Right click to view source, and search (Ctrl or Command +F) for "Order #". Mine from 12/19/2018 is 4037.

Snippet from source code:
"
<div class="step" data-step="thank-you">
<div class="step__sections">
<div class="section">
<div class="section__header os-header">
<svg class="icon-svg icon-svg--color-accent icon-svg--size-48 os-header__hanging-icon" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"> <use xlink:href="#checkmark" /> </svg>
<div class="os-header__heading">
<span class="os-order-number">
Order #4037
</span>
<h2 class="os-header__title" id="main-header" tabindex="-1">
Thank you!
</h2>
</div>
</div>
</div>"
 

Coast2Coast

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cohall, yes, I thought about using a conversion rate, but it wasn't so important to my larger point of the balance between preorder numbers and production capacity. It will take about two years for Rivian to clear out preorders. After that, with tons of reviews, write-ups and media attention, demand should spike, but production will pick up too.

As early preorder holders, we're all concerned about when we'll get ours. I'm concerned about the longer term issue of whither Rivian.

The fact that Rivian is taking its time to get everything right has slowed down when we'll get our Rivians, but by the same token that care and attention to getting it right means demand will build and continue to build after Normal goes into production. I'm really focused on the longterm. I want Rivian to become a major player in the transportation picture of the future.
 

cohall

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FOUND IT! You better do it quick before they update the website. Click the link for "View Details" in your preorder confirmation email.

Right click to view source, and search (Ctrl or Command +F) for "Order #". Mine from 12/19/2018 is 4037.

Snippet from source code:
"
<div class="step" data-step="thank-you">
<div class="step__sections">
<div class="section">
<div class="section__header os-header">
<svg class="icon-svg icon-svg--color-accent icon-svg--size-48 os-header__hanging-icon" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"> <use xlink:href="#checkmark" /> </svg>
<div class="os-header__heading">
<span class="os-order-number">
Order #4037
</span>
<h2 class="os-header__title" id="main-header" tabindex="-1">
Thank you!
</h2>
</div>
</div>
</div>"
#43,822 - Ouch

Not totally surprising, given I didn't order until this past March. But still...Ouch.
 
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