Sponsored

CharonPDX

Well-Known Member
First Name
Charon
Joined
Jul 12, 2021
Threads
21
Messages
1,064
Reaction score
1,507
Location
Cascadia
Vehicles
R1T LE, Mach-E, Arcimoto FUV, Repl: F-250/Model S
Occupation
InfoSec Geek
Clubs
 
Alright, November 2020 preorder, Launch Edition.

Have had Launch Green or Forest Green exterior with Forest Edge interior selected for a long time. (Waffled between the two exterior colors a few times.) My original delivery date was "June-July 2022". With the big delaying a month ago, it got bumped to "November-December 2022" and I've been sending annoyed missives via email and chat at least once a week since.

Got the Shop invite Saturday, had no "CLICK BUY NOW!" configs, although there was a very tempting LG/FE. But by the time my spouse and I decided that would work, it was gone. (Appears to have been snapped up by a Redditor in /r/rivian.) When I got the shop invite, the web browser developer tools trick showed I had switched from "preordered" to "selected for fulfillment"

I did text my newly assigned Guide (assigned Saturday along with the Shop invite) that I would be willing to pick up from the factory if that gave me different Shop listings. He responded on Monday saying he'd escalate and see what was possible.

Yesterday, Shop access disappeared, but my configuration was locked, and the web browser developer tools trick now shows "pending fulfillment". Looks like my Guide got my vehicle into the queue based on us being willing to pick up at the factory. (mgc2016 here on the forums is local to me, and did the same - 3 day drive home, but that'll be a nice mini vacation sometime next month or early August.)
Sponsored

 

sk00pie

Well-Known Member
First Name
Paul
Joined
Dec 6, 2021
Threads
11
Messages
102
Reaction score
175
Location
NY
Vehicles
Wrangler, Tesla Model 3
Any rough ideas on ETA for Dual Motor + Standard Pack?
 

kurtlikevonnegut

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2021
Threads
24
Messages
2,096
Reaction score
5,634
Location
SC/TX
Vehicles
R1T QM, Honda Odyssey
Clubs
 
Any rough ideas on ETA for Dual Motor + Standard Pack?
Initially stated for 2024 when the dual motor config was announced but RJ had indicated in interviews that they are ahead of schedule and may start shipping in early 2023. I'd take that with a grain of salt and expect 2024.
 

sk00pie

Well-Known Member
First Name
Paul
Joined
Dec 6, 2021
Threads
11
Messages
102
Reaction score
175
Location
NY
Vehicles
Wrangler, Tesla Model 3
Initially stated for 2024 when the dual motor config was announced but RJ had indicated in interviews that they are ahead of schedule and may start shipping in early 2023. I'd take that with a grain of salt and expect 2024.
Wow good to know thanks! I'm wondering if that's for those who already reserved? I'd be looking to reserve today. Guess the reserve banks for dual + standard have only been open for a month or so anyway.
 

sk00pie

Well-Known Member
First Name
Paul
Joined
Dec 6, 2021
Threads
11
Messages
102
Reaction score
175
Location
NY
Vehicles
Wrangler, Tesla Model 3
Any very rough estimate when the tax credit phase out will begin? I guess when are we expecting 200k delivered?
 

Sponsored

timf

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
May 3, 2019
Threads
5
Messages
675
Reaction score
1,083
Location
Novi, MI
Vehicles
Rivian R1S
Clubs
 
Any very rough estimate when the tax credit phase out will begin? I guess when are we expecting 200k delivered?
I'd say there's a far greater chance the tax credit gets reworked before Rivian hits 200k sales. If not, and assuming Amazon vans qualify for the credit, my best guess would be 2028 or so.
 

SASSquatch

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2022
Threads
34
Messages
1,834
Reaction score
3,562
Location
Washington DC
Vehicles
BMW i3s Ford C-Max Hybrid
Occupation
Semi-Autonomous Yeti
Clubs
 
I'd say there's a far greater chance the tax credit gets reworked before Rivian hits 200k sales. If not, and assuming Amazon vans qualify for the credit, my best guess would be 2028 or so.
I wouldn't assume that Amazon vans qualify for the credit. Since it is a commercial product, it may be exempt or have different qualifier than consumer purchased vehicles.

That said, I don't think RIVIAN is going to see production of 200K R1T/R1S for several years, but likely by 2025 if they achieve 25K this year (2023) 50K next year (2024) and 150K the following year (2025) but those are just guesstimates.
 

lostpacket

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2021
Threads
25
Messages
735
Reaction score
2,184
Location
Vermont
Vehicles
Crosstrek, R1T
Occupation
Software Engineer
I wouldn't assume that Amazon vans qualify for the credit. Since it is a commercial product, it may be exempt or have different qualifier than consumer purchased vehicles.

That said, I don't think RIVIAN is going to see production of 200K R1T/R1S for several years, but likely by 2025 if they achieve 25K this year (2023) 50K next year (2024) and 150K the following year (2025) but those are just guesstimates.
Commercial vehicles do qualify.

You can see the EDV listed here
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml
 

SASSquatch

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2022
Threads
34
Messages
1,834
Reaction score
3,562
Location
Washington DC
Vehicles
BMW i3s Ford C-Max Hybrid
Occupation
Semi-Autonomous Yeti
Clubs
 
Commercial vehicles do qualify.

You can see the EDV listed here
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml
I stand corrected. That actually seems like a very strange use of the incentive since the goal is to reduce the barrier of entry for adoption and a large business like Amazon likely doesn't need the added incentive since EVs will result in significant cost savings that will be realized on a much shorter time scale then the average consumer.

My guestimates though were assuming concurrent production of R1's and EDVs so I'm still thinking it will be 2025 for exhausting the 200,000 before the phase out would begin.
 

lostpacket

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2021
Threads
25
Messages
735
Reaction score
2,184
Location
Vermont
Vehicles
Crosstrek, R1T
Occupation
Software Engineer
I stand corrected. That actually seems like a very strange use of the incentive since the goal is to reduce the barrier of entry for adoption and a large business like Amazon likely doesn't need the added incentive since EVs will result in significant cost savings that will be realized on a much shorter time scale then the average consumer.

My guestimates though were assuming concurrent production of R1's and EDVs so I'm still thinking it will be 2025 for exhausting the 200,000 before the phase out would begin.
Personally I've always thought the tax credit wasn't about driving adoption but rather to make the profit math easier for manufacturers to invest in all the capacity they need to make EVs. (Hence the per manufacturer cap). Manufacturers set prices high enough to capture nearly all of that $7500. There is some evidence too when you look at the Bolt EUV which has just lowered it's price because GM ran out of tax credits.

I think the idea was to make the capital expenditure for manufacturers to transition to factories that can make EVs a lot less risky. But once they have factories setup, they can amortize those costs. And the per manufacturer cap is actually phased out, not a hard cap.

It also tracks with why certain senators (e.g. the Senator from Toyota) want to remove the per manufacturer cap (Toyota about to run out) and add a means test (Toyota focuses on low-cost volume vehicles).

This is all speculation on my part of course but it feels more logical than driving adoption.
 

Sponsored

JGard18

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2022
Threads
17
Messages
521
Reaction score
692
Location
Acton MA
Vehicles
2022 R1T Adv, 2023 Volvo XC40 Recharge
Occupation
Consultant
Personally I've always thought the tax credit wasn't about driving adoption but rather to make the profit math easier for manufacturers to invest in all the capacity they need to make EVs. (Hence the per manufacturer cap). Manufacturers set prices high enough to capture nearly all of that $7500. There is some evidence too when you look at the Bolt EUV which has just lowered it's price because GM ran out of tax credits.

I think the idea was to make the capital expenditure for manufacturers to transition to factories that can make EVs a lot less risky. But once they have factories setup, they can amortize those costs. And the per manufacturer cap is actually phased out, not a hard cap.

It also tracks with why certain senators (e.g. the Senator from Toyota) want to remove the per manufacturer cap (Toyota about to run out) and add a means test (Toyota focuses on low-cost volume vehicles).

This is all speculation on my part of course but it feels more logical than driving adoption.
You're right that the manufacturers are taking in that 7500 in how they're pricing things. When the Bolt came out, it was a $20k car selling for $30k because of credits. Tesla did the same thing with the Model 3, too, iirc. I could have sworn once their credits ran out, they dropped the price a few thousand. But of course now they're way back up over what it used to cost.
 

Cogentfire

Well-Known Member
First Name
Chuck
Joined
May 23, 2022
Threads
1
Messages
53
Reaction score
36
Location
USA
Vehicles
HONDA
Occupation
Scientist
Hello!

Could anyone help with a rough estimate wait time for my January 22 order?

January 2022 Reservation
R1T
El Cap x Black Mountain
Large pack
20 ATs
no accessories
I’m also Jan 2022 order for truck and suv. I’m told 2H 2023 or 1H 2024. However, quick back of envelope calc says we may get sooner. We reserved when preorders hit ~70k. Since half of all orders are trucks then our truck should be in the mid 30k range. Rivian is expected to pump out 25k this year. Then by this logic there is a chance we could see 35k by Feb/Mar 2023.
 

Jac

Well-Known Member
First Name
Jacob
Joined
Mar 16, 2022
Threads
39
Messages
492
Reaction score
880
Location
Connecticut
Vehicles
Rivian R1S, Volvo XC40, Honda VFR1200X
Occupation
Retired
Clubs
 
I’m also Jan 2022 order for truck and suv. I’m told 2H 2023 or 1H 2024. However, quick back of envelope calc says we may get sooner. We reserved when preorders hit ~70k. Since half of all orders are trucks then our truck should be in the mid 30k range. Rivian is expected to pump out 25k this year. Then by this logic there is a chance we could see 35k by Feb/Mar 2023.
We will get an update when recent quarterly earnings are released in August, but as of last quarter Rivian was targeting 25,000 total production for 2022 including a third of that total Amazon delivery vans. So, R1T/R1S production target for 2022 was more like 16,500. Obviously, we’re all hoping they can exceed that.
 

Siguy90

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2022
Threads
2
Messages
74
Reaction score
73
Location
NYC
Vehicles
R1T
I’m also Jan 2022 order for truck and suv. I’m told 2H 2023 or 1H 2024. However, quick back of envelope calc says we may get sooner. We reserved when preorders hit ~70k. Since half of all orders are trucks then our truck should be in the mid 30k range. Rivian is expected to pump out 25k this year. Then by this logic there is a chance we could see 35k by Feb/Mar 2023.
I had done some napkin math as well a little while ago. The 25k number however is split between 10K EDV and 15K R1. Either way going off the 70k preorders I wonder what percentage have not been cancelled. Also accounting for configs which include the explorer pack, max pack, non-powered tonneau as well as the OC interior (at least until fall) that pushed a lot of orders into mid/late 2023. Also accounting for Canadian orders that aren't delivering yet Hopefully we see a big Q3/Q4 ramp like we've seen with Q2.
 

Cogentfire

Well-Known Member
First Name
Chuck
Joined
May 23, 2022
Threads
1
Messages
53
Reaction score
36
Location
USA
Vehicles
HONDA
Occupation
Scientist
I had done some napkin math as well a little while ago. The 25k number however is split between 10K EDV and 15K R1. Either way going off the 70k preorders I wonder what percentage have not been cancelled. Also accounting for configs which include the explorer pack, max pack, non-powered tonneau as well as the OC interior (at least until fall) that pushed a lot of orders into mid/late 2023. Also accounting for Canadian orders that aren't delivering yet Hopefully we see a big Q3/Q4 ramp like we've seen with Q2.
I didn’t consider the Canadian orders. Do we know when those will be delivered? I expected they will almost double from last quarter, ~15k, but that’s the optimist in me.
Sponsored

 
 




Top